salik79 wrote: ↑04/05/2020 18:13
Pa, naravno, sada kada se ne uklapa u narativ, sada cemo izmjenjivati i prilagodjavati. Ako je nesto mjerodavno po ovom pitanju, onda je upravo podatak od prije dvije godine, kada nije postojala potreba za friziranjem i prilagodjavanjem podataka, a sve u svrhu opravdanja "mrtvih ljudi po ulicama" i sveopce kataklizme...
Nije nista izmjenjeno sad, vec jos u novembru. Ovakvi podaci se redovno dodatno obradjuju i nadopunjuju, par godina kasnije.
Ovdje ima cijelo objasnjenje, kako i zasto:
Can you explain why the estimates on this page are different from previously published and reported estimates for 2017-2018? (For example, total flu-related deaths during 2017-2018 was previously estimated to be 79,000, but the current estimate is 61,000)?
The estimates on this page have been updated from an earlier report published in December 2018 based on more recently available information. There is a trade-off between timeliness and accuracy of the burden estimates. To provide timely burden estimates to the public, clinicians, and public health decision-makers, we use preliminary data that may lead to over- or under-estimates of the true burden. However, each season’s estimates will be finalized when data on testing practices and deaths for that season are available.
For the revised 2017-2018 estimates, we included additional information in our estimation regarding influenza testing practices. The surveillance system used to estimate influenza-related hospitalizations, FluSurv-NET, collects data on patients hospitalized with laboratory-confirmed influenza. Influenza testing is done at the request of the clinician, but not everyone is tested and influenza tests are not perfectly accurate. Thus, the reports of laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations to FluSurv-NET are likely underestimates of the true number of hospitalizations. To adjust for this, CDC collects data annually from participating FluSurv-NET sites on the amount of influenza testing and the type of test that is used at the site, and this information is used to correct for the possible underestimate of influenza-related hospitalizations. These testing data are often not available for up to two years after the end of an influenza season, and thus the estimates are revised when additional testing data become available. For the original preliminary 2017-2018 burden estimates, data on testing practices during the 2014-2015 season were used to make preliminary estimates because this season had the highest levels of testing among the prior seasons for which data were available and resulted in the most conservative (lowest) estimates of burden. More recent data from the 2016-17 season show that influenza testing has been increasing among most age groups. The current estimates were made using the highest testing rate for each age-group during 2010-11 to 2016-17 and has resulted in some burden estimates being lower than previously estimated.
Additionally, the method we use to estimate influenza-associated deaths relies on additional data from FluSurv-NET and the National Center for Health Statistics (data on cause of deaths and numbers of deaths that occur in versus outside the hospital) that are also not available for up to two years after the end of the season being estimated.
The 2017-2018 estimates are still preliminary because not all of the required data are currently available. When those data become available, these estimates will be updated again and the results may change.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
I na dnu podatak kad je stranica zadnji put azurirana:
Page last reviewed: November 22, 2019
Content source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD)
Konkretno, nije bitno toliko je li 61k ili 80k. Mogao si komotno i napisati 61k da bi tvrdio to sto tvrdis - da su brojke za gripu ove godine manje od prosjeka. No nije da ih uopste nema. Pise u toj statistici da je do sad registrovano 6000 u periodu februar-april. U clanku pise da je u januaru registrovano 2000, sto znaci da od pocetka Covida u februaru smrtnost od gripe nije naglo opala. Dodaj jos tome decembar i novembar i bice komotno preko 10000. (Do sad je minimalni rekord 12k iz sezone 12/13). Tako da brojke jesu manje, ali nisu nepostojece. No sve su ovo samo procjene jer CDC inace nema egzaktne podatke o broju umrlih od gripe.
I jeste, naravno, odredjeni dio smrti od Covida su imali i gripu. No isto tako se desavalo i obratno, pototovo kad je u pitanju dijagnoza upale pluca - tj. da su smrti registrovane kao jedno ili drugo, a ne kao Covid.
Evo ovdje link za to, statistike za P&I (pneumonia and influenza), znaci sa stanovista dijagnosticiranih ovih bolesti, ne Covida:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
I pise na pocetku objasnjenje:
Laboratory confirmed flu activity as reported by clinical laboratories remains low. Influenza-like illness activity continues to decrease and is below the national baseline. The percent of deaths due to pneumonia or influenza (P&I) is high but the increase is due primarily to COVID-19, not influenza.
Ispod na linku ima statistika o upali pluca i gripi, po sedmicama u godini, i vidi se tacno krivulja te tvoje 17-18 sezone i krivulja ove sezone:
Crvena linija predstavlja postotak smrtnosti svake sedmice veci od ocekivanog (od ukupnog broja umrlih).
Mozes dalje kliknuti na View Chart Data. U sedmicama 14,15 i 16 procenat umrlih od P&I je bio duplo veci od ukupnog broja umrlih u zemlji (obicno je izmedju 6.5%-7.0%, ali je tih sedmica bio izmedju 13.0%-15.0%.
Tabela je od 2014 do danas.
Ako vec ne vjerujes dijagnozi, mozes u tabeli filtrirati sedmice 14 i 15 (3/30-4/12 za 2020) da bi usporedio sezonski broj
ukupno smrti (svi umrli) i vidjeti da su brojke u ovoj godini drasticno vece:
Year Week Percent of Deaths Due to Pneumonia and Influenza Expected Threshold All Deaths Pneumonia Deaths Influenza Deaths
2014 14 7.61197265 7.768 8.17176 50749 3808 55
2015 14 7.452178534 7.72594 8.13407 52696 3827 100
2016 14 7.759035253 7.44652 7.83514 54066 3945 250
2017 14 7.409354605 7.23475 7.60783 55160 3821 266
2018 14 7.230440916 7.02609 7.38418 55294 3698 300
2019 14 7.021821716 6.79897 7.14149 56595 3634 340
2020 14
14.19392249 6.73938 7.07505
63809 8629 428
2014 15 7.49821895 7.67317 8.07674 50532 3717 72
2015 15 7.559987889 7.61159 8.01934 52844 3920 75
2016 15 7.640680501 7.33953 7.7278 53490 3891 196
2017 15 7.261989391 7.13508 7.5079 54861 3776 208
2018 15 6.887810531 6.931 7.28878 55228 3590 214
2019 15 6.759070673 6.70979 7.05202 55481 3447 303
2020 15
15.23411269 6.65918 6.99485
65524 9563 419
Moze se sortirati i po broju ukupno umrlih za svaku sedmicu u ovih 7-8 godina. Najgore dvije sedmice su i dalje prva i druga sedmica 2018-e, ali sedmica 15 je na 3-em mjestu, a sedmica 14 nad 5-om. To je skroz nenormalno za april.
Na listi imas 344 sedmice, medju najgorih 40 su sve sedmice od sredine decembra do sredine marta. Sad odjednom april 2020 medju prvih 5!
Year Week All Deaths
2018 2 67495
2018 1 66134
2020 15 65524
2018 3 64647
2020 14 63809
2018 4 62780
2015 1 61737
2015 2 61141
2018 6 61110
2017 52 61090
2017 2 60980
2018 5 60974
2018 7 59779
2017 1 59763
2020 2 59732
2017 51 59505
2020 1 59446
2014 53 59342
2017 3 59293
2017 6 59038
2015 3 58628
2019 10 58508
2019 6 58495
2017 7 58479
2017 5 58432
2019 2 58354
2019 1 58291
2017 8 58288
2020 3 58231
2019 3 58194
2019 52 58146
2019 5 58128
2017 4 58047
2019 9 57923
2019 7 57918
2019 11 57898
2019 8 57858
Jasno se moze vidjeti nagli skok ove godine. Znaci ovo je za cijelu Ameriku, gdje je u vecini zemlje virus imao skoro pa nikakvog efekta. Na udarnim podrucjima ovi skokovi su garant drasticno veci.
Ne znam sta se na ovo moze dodati da bi opravdalo neku tezu da se radi o normalnoj sezonskoj pojavi? Moze se do beskonacni diskutovati o detaljima dijagnosticiranja bolesti ili utvrdjivanja uzroka smrti, ali nista ne moze opovrgnuti fakat da je broj ukupno umrlih veci. Uz to nije konacan, pogotovo za april.
Ovo sve uz mjere socijalnog distanciranja, koje sigurno imaju neki pozitivan efekat na smanjenje broja zarazenih, i sigurno imaju neki efekat na smanjenje broja smrti od saobracajnih i drugih nesreca, koje su treci najveci uzrok smrti u zemlji.
il mislis da sam ovo iz glave pisao 
Poredi se isti mjesec u raznim godinama. Razlike nema sanse da su tolike.