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Archie Irving
@ArchieIrving2
Haven't seen much discussion about whether the Patriot system may have been responsible for the recent Russian aircraft losses, so here is my take.
This looks to me like a possible use case for PAC-2 from well within Ukrainian territory using link16.
First and foremost, PAC-2 have a range of up to 160 km, which puts a lot of Ukrainian territory within PAC-2 range. There is enough distance from the border to put a patriot launcher without significantly increasing risk.
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But, Patriot radar can't track targets that far, right? Yes, but that doesn't really matter.
Patriot systems can receive targeting data through link16 datalink. This means you can put other radars closer to the border communicating over-the-horizon targets to PAC-2.
There isn't a lot of public info regarding PAC-2 datalink capabilities, but they certainly exist, demonstrated by IBCS flight test 5, where F-35 + TPS-59 radar communicated targeting data over link-16 to a Patriot system which intercepted using PAC-2.
What does this mean?
Other radars on link16 can communicate with a patriot system, allowing interceptions well over the horizon, and at lower altitudes. This also allows aircraft on link16 to feed targeting to Patriot - maybe even allowing Su-27 and Mig-29 to take part.
Because of this, Russian pilots could have had no RWR warnings from the patriot system until the PAC-2 enters terminal phase. Russian systems would have certainly picked up the missiles on Radar, but wouldn't know it was targeting them until too late.
So, any compatible Ukrainian/NATO Radar in track while scan that could pick up these targets would have been able to transmit targeting data to a PAC-2 without alerting the pilots to lock or missile launch. As a result, its possible that the pilots didn't defend before the max -
abort range. With knowledge of being fired upon, any pilot worth their while would be able to defend against a PAC-2 that far out - but without any defensive maneuvering, it would be almost impossible to survive PAC-2 after it enters its terminal phase.
What I don't yet know is whether PAC-2 can communicate on link16 themselves, or if they require the Patriot system to upload link16 data. If it is the former (which I suspect), then a single patriot launcher theoretically can be used closer to the border, as to reduce risk.
In that case, all you would require is the launcher and a communication/command system to receive and upload datalink to the launcher. The rest of the battery could be positioned deep in Ukraine, where command and radar systems are at little risk.
Either way, the reason I think this is more likely than MANPADS is this: MANPADS make sense for helicopters with a known flight path, but not less for fighters. Even with known flight path, an SOF team would have a small and unlikely window to launch, with low chance of success.
Additionally, you might as well accept that you won't be getting that SOF team back. No amount of Russian incompetence should have you confident that an SOF team has a great chance of extracting from more than 50KM into Russian territory after taking out such high value targets.
This sort of operation puts you at massive risk of ending up seeing them end up as propaganda on Russian telegram, with low chance of success. Its a lot harder to run around in enemy territory carrying 4+ sets of MANPADS then it is to do so without.
A doubt I have; if the Mi-8 were travelling at low altitude, the chance that any ground based radar in Ukraine was tracking them is effectively zero. E-3 AWACS has unclassified range of 400km detection, which would put it well out of range on Poland border.
Considering the extensive use of E-3 in Poland despite this fact, who knows how far it can see. There may be some doubts as to whether Ukrainian systems are actually using link16 - IMO, there has to be significant use of link16 by now as to integrate with NATO -
AWACS, Rivet joint and supplied NASAMS, PATRIOT and HIMARS + more. Maybe I'm wrong, but MANPADS or S-300 seems just as if not more unlikely to me. Also, PAC-2 is more likely to kill all 4 sets of pilots than MANPADS, so
. Will be interesting to see what is actually the case /End
position. Soldiers of the 14th brigade took up position after the soldiers of the K2 battalion struck it with two FPV drones. The result of the drone attack is 3-200 and 1-300
. Will be interesting to see what is actually the case /End
