Ali jeste zanimljiva priča o tome kako je ovaj virus zarazan i zašto mu toliko treba da se pokrene i zarazi populaciju ako je R0=3?
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05 ... -virus-all#Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters. The lower k is, the more transmission comes from a small number of people. In a seminal 2005 Nature paper, Lloyd-Smith and co-authors estimated that SARS—in which superspreading played a major role—had a k of 0.16. The estimated k for MERS, which emerged in 2012, is about 0.25. In the flu pandemic of 1918, in contrast, the value was about one, indicating that clusters played less of a role.
“But we are certainly seeing a lot of concentrated clusters where a small proportion of people are responsible for a large proportion of infections.” But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.
Ovo bi značilo da je uloga "super spreader events" ogromna u slučaju ovog virusa, a da većina ljudi prenese virus i bliskim kontaktima u 10% slučajeva. Odnosno, virus uopšte nije toliko zarazan, ali mu prosjek kvare ovi "super spreader events" gdje jedna osoba zarazi mnogo drugih. Slično se ponašao i "originalni" SARS, a to u praksi znači da jedna osoba zarazi jednu ili nijednu drugu osobu, a super spreader zarazi 30 odjednom. Niz infekcija bi izgledao: 1,1,0,1,2,0,1,1,0,2,1,1,30,1,2,0,1,2,18,...
