Preko bare:
As States Rush to Reopen, Scientists Fear a Coronavirus Comeback
Dozens of U.S. states are starting to reopen their economies, hoping to ease the economic pain brought on by pandemic-fighting restrictions. But by doing it now — before meeting even minimal criteria for a safe reopening — they are inviting disaster, our science reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr. writes.
The states lifting restrictions now “are living in a dream world,” Donald told us. “They’re desperate to reopen — and they’re right to feel that. But they have convinced themselves that it’s safe to reopen, and it’s not.”
As a result, the much-feared second wave of infection may not wait until autumn, many scientists told Donald. Premature, scattershot reopenings may instead bring on a storm of wavelets, breaking unpredictably across the country.
“We’re not reopening based on science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the Obama administration. “We’re reopening based on politics, ideology and public pressure. And I think it’s going to end badly.”
Some key takeaways:
Masks. Evidence is mounting that if all people wear masks in public, they are far more effective at stopping transmission than was previously realized. But outside New York, California and a few other states, many Americans resist wearing them.
Contact tracing. The goal of tracking and testing the contacts of every infected person remains very far out of reach in the United States. To keep up, the country would need 30 or 40 times as many trained contact tracers as it has now, 100 times as much testing and a budget of $1.5 billion a week.
Time lag. The effects of the reopenings will not be immediately apparent, because it takes two or three weeks for newly infected people to become very sick. People may let their guard down — and make the second wave worse.
Having states and territories all doing competing and uncoordinated experiments in reopening is “daring Mother Nature to kill you or someone you love,” Dr. Frieden said. “Mother Nature bats last, and she bats a thousand.”
Deaths are already far higher than the 60,000 once predicted by August. Even President Trump has begun to talk of a toll that may reach 100,000, perhaps more.
Some epidemiological models predict three times that many within months — closer to the 240,000 that the White House’s coronavirus task force predicted in March before switching to a new, more optimistic model.
Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the task force’s chief medical adviser, has said he expects cases to spike in closed environments like nursing homes, prisons and factories.
“We’re not reopening based on science,” said Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, a former director of the C.D.C. in the Obama administration. “We’re reopening based on politics, ideology and public pressure. And I think it’s going to end badly.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/11/heal ... tions.html
Kad se samo sjetim rasprava na početku teme kako maske nepotrebne i nanose više štete od koristi.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d216daa343
tako mi rekose ne znam jel istina 
