Cue words like “Kesselschlacht,” “deep maneuver,” “fire sack” etc. etc. They seize Ukraine’s Black Sea coast (up to Odessa) and Russia imposes a compromise, frozen armistice, in which Moscow walks away with some gains, though not overthrow of Ukrainian government. Success! 2/7
Deep Russian military competence has reasserted itself. But then there is Narrative #2. The Big Boss is hopping mad that he was lied to about what was doable, but neither he nor the generals really know the situation on the ground particularly well. He tells them to deliver… 3/7
a tangible victory OR ELSE and FAST. So they move broken units around, don’t really re-equip, rest, retrain, etc. but launch large scale attacks, while the Ukrainians chew on their logistics and, burning for revenge for civilian tortured and dead, attack ferociously. 4/7
Fear, confusion, and failure are contagious. And thus these offensives fail, some spectacularly. Ukrainian counterattacks, fed by Western arms supplies, push back, maybe to the line of contact, maybe into the Donbass (not Crimea). A Russian defeat becomes a debacle. 5/7
The Wehrmacht often saved itself from defeat-becomes-debacle because of klix junior leadership (see Guy Sajer, THE FORGOTTEN SOLDIER or Willi Heinrich, CROSS OF IRON). Russian junior leadership is absent or worse than useless. If collapse begins it will be hard to stop 6/7
Of course it is likely to be something in between. But I bet its going to be much closer to Narrative #2 than to Narrative #1. 7/end
juce me nazdornik pita. Sta milsim i ja se nadam da nisu dosli pameti i da ce probat opciju 2
