May 3 - Day 434 - Escalation Kremlin-style, All manner of booms, Quality artillery
Hi FB!
Administrative note: FB did some peculiar things after I posted this, but it appears sorted now. It may have looked to you like the post appeared, disappeared, and reappeared. This seems to happen about once every six months...
The big news obviously is that the Ukrainians (finally) managed to fly a drone into the Kremlin, and it blew up and set a fire. Naturally the Ukrainians denied it, which is probably irritating for the Russians as deniable nastiness is one of their favorite plays, and here it’s being used against them. Video attached, I’m sure you’ve seen it, but someone was clever enough to notice some guys were on the Kremlin dome when it was hit. Huh?
Whatever retaliation the Russians decide to embark on, of course, will be against an official background that (1) no one in the world feels sorry for them and (2) any escalation will be wholly Russia’s fault.
Of course, when one mentions the words “escalation” and “Russia” in the same sentence, one naturally worries about the word “nuclear”.
I can’t make anyone feel any better about that. But I will ask this question: What’s the better policy for the West - wait until Ukraine develops properly powerful long-range strike weapons of its own, or, give Ukraine long-range weapons that would end the war without major chances of escalation, by which I mean tools to cut the Crimean isthmus and to drop the Kerch bridge?
As we know, the US-manufactured ATACMS could do that, right now, and as far as that goes that capacity has existed in theory since last May, when Ukraine received its first HIMARS systems.
Fast forward almost a year, the smart people in Washington are STILL limiting the reach of precision-guided weapons provided Ukraine to 70-80 km. - because, you know, Russia might do something aggressive if Ukraine got ATACMS.
The fly in the ointment is, that by denying Ukraine longer-range weapons that could win the war quickly, the smart people in Washington are leaving it to the Ukrainians to decide when to escalate and hit sensitive targets in Russia, just with Ukrainian weapons not American weapons. With no American strings attached.
The way I see it, the only way to keep this war from escalating more, is to end it, and to that end, the West can adopt one of two strategies: either stop helping Ukraine and make the Ukrainians seek terms with the Russians, or, make it so the Ukrainians visit such a serious battlefield defeat on the Russians, that the Russians either throw out their present leaders or seek terms themselves.
The traditional solution of the government official - play for time and avoid making decisions someone might later force you out of your job over - is a dangerous tactic in this war, because it assumes only the Russians can escalate, and that the West can prevent Ukraine from escalating.
We just witnessed a reasonably serious escalation by the Ukrainians (probably). I very much doubt it will be the last.
Bakhmut
The leader of Wagner Evgeney Prigozhin over the last several days has blown hot and cold, releasing videos saying Wagner is about to dissolve itself, Wagner is out of ammo, Wagner is fighting hard, Wagner is gaining ground, and a mere 1.5 km. are left between Wagner and total control of Bakhmut. His latest comment was downbeat again: 103 men dead in one day for an advance of 160 meters.
This took place against comments by John Kirby at the Pentagon implying that Russia suffered mass casualties attacking Bakhmut all these months, according to Ukrainian reports (which I understand the Pentagon walked back on somewhat) including more than 80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed in battles in the vicinity. Kirby said the Russians are stopped.
3rd Assault Infantry (1st Battalion) published a new round of videos asserting counterattacks succeeded, the road to Chasiv Yar is still open, more RF prisoners taken, Bakhmut still is holding. One video (attached) showed a very clean 1st Battalion commander telling the unit press officer everything is going very well. Volunteer video appeared on Monday showing the road to be in far from great shape but driveable.
Marynka - A newish map of this sector showed up, attached.According to reports from the Ukrainian side, 54th and 79th brigades are there and holding. Supposedly, some of the fighting here is as bad as in Bakhmut. (But of course, Bakhmut shooting seems to have tailed off of late). Anyway, I’ve seen rumors that since the weekend the UAF is pushing back and regaining groun. No confirmation, however, a “Donbass area” video appeared with another batch of RF POWs walking in.
Pre-offensive bombardment
Yes, this is no longer just the UAF harassing the Russians and picking targets of opportunity for long range fires, this is the systematic bombardment campaign with the mission to degrade the Russian rear area.
It’s clearly started, and based on the last several days the top long-range target appears to be fuel and the top tactical targets seem to be artillery and artillery ammo. The Ukrainians have been expending munitions pretty energetically so it’s bullet point time:
Saturday - Oil terminal - Kamikaze drones - Kazachy bay, Crimea: this was widely reported and it delivered one of the most spectacular explosion photos of the war so far, and since it’s been several days we now know, thanks to civiian satellite overflight (two images), that in fact Russian authorities were fibbing when they said the Black Sea Fleet’s fuel depots weren’t seriously damaged. In fact, about half of it looks to have been torched.
Saturday - Melitopol - HIMARS - Hotel called “Prival Okhotnika” hit, supposedly officers serving in HQ 58th Army were targeted. Multple RF sources say there were no casualties. Post-strike video attached.
Monday - Tokmak hit, Myhailivtsi hit. Not clear the targets but this is the HIMARS range envelope. (Map)
Monday - Sevastopol hit, or at least air defense triggered, smoke observed over military port. Monday - Bryansk Oblast, Russia, partisans or UAF special forces used explosives to derail a train carrying fuel. Eight tanker cars destroyed, big fire. RF sources are quick to point out damage was fixed in hours. I saw one RF spokesman call the UAF attacks “silly” and “pointless”.
Tuesday - More or less Simferopol airport, Crimea. Radio Liberty later reports a training base used by Russian border troops near the village Shkilne was hit. Map and images of buildings.
Tuesday - Melitopol - Explosion wounds a Ukrainian official collaborating with Russian authorities in Russia-occupied Melitopol. Reportedly, he was the deputy head of the Russian Internal Affairs regional office in occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast, in other words, the number two guy for arresting people and putting them in cellars for questioning. Something blew up when he opened a gate his yard. RF media widely confirmed the attack.
Tuesday - Taman peninsula, Russia. Another oil depot catches on fire, this one right next to the Crimea bridge. Fires apparently set by at lease one kamikaze drone hitting at night.Video appeared very quickly - the Russians really do have a problem keeping useful intelligence off the internet - showing two incoming drones, both hit by air defense, but one gets to an oil reservoir and boom. Video and map.
Wednesday - Five Ukrainian drones hit an airfield in Russia’s Bryansk region - two drones reportedly shot down, two hit the airfield. RF media reported a single AN-124 cargo plane was damaged.
Wed - Mosipino, occupied Donetsk region - Something similar to an ammo dump blows up.Image.
Russia shoots back
The Russians have been shooting too, just not as much. Since Saturday they launched another round of bomber-fired missiles, as before people were killed so the trend of targeting civilian life and forgetting about the Ukrainian power grid is now well-established. There also was evidence the Russians are trying out new tactics to break into the Ukrainian air defense network, so here’s a write-up on that:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16519
Pavlograd hit - One of the Russian missiles apparently hit a Soviet-era rocket fuel storage facility which basically is a hazardous materials containment sight waiting for a disaster to happen. These places are dotted wherever the Soviet Union used to base intercontinental missiles, when they were defueled the toxic fuel was just held somewhere and when the Soviet Union imploded that became the successor state’s problem. I visited one such site several years ago: not confidence building.
Anyway, by accident or intent one of the Russian cruise missiles hit the dump, touching off a properly apocalypse-level explosion, and it’s only because there is a major conventional war on that no one cares about the environmental impact, which has to be horrendous. Video and blast site photo. Note: Video will be uploaded later.
Kherson region - Russian artillery fire killed three civilians the day before yesterday, three yesterday, and sixteen (!) today. Let’s see how many major media platforms even mention it after talking about the drone flying into the Kremlin’s flagmast. Video and photo.
Offensive
Plenty of indicators stuff is being planned and head games are being played, but no one has shot the starting gun yet.
- Bild published a report profiling sneaky-deaky Ukrainian special forces troopers who plan to infiltrate across the Dnipro in kayaks and sow fear and destruction in the Russian rear area, or at least, that rear area accessible to kayaks. One of the trainers is a German and there are photos, so clearly, someone wants someone else to be aware Ukrainians aboard kayaks could be coming across the Dnipro.
- Official images surfaced of what appears to be the newly-raised newly-raised 22nd Mech Brigade operating imported, fully-refurbished and with new paint T-72 tanks, point being the equipment is in country but it’s not like brigade command has run out of things to practice. Image.
- Russian occupation authorities announced a near-total evacuation and total military control of villages in Zaporizhia sector opposite where the big offensive is supposed to go, to wit the villages Dorozhnyanka, Reshitilivka, Konstantinivka (not the Donbass city) and Chumatske.
- Ukrainian, er, officials announced a pretty serious lockdown in and around Kherson, for 58 hours constitutional guarantees for freedom of movement and search and seizure won’t work. The official line is authorities are hunting for Russian spies, but, if I were an army wanting to move military equipment through Kherson at night and reduce chances information about that would get on the internet, I would deffo like to have someone organize a lockdown like that for me. Here’s a write-up without speculation on the troop movement:
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/16559
Stuff for Ukraine
Starting off with an image of a very rate T-84DU tank with 3rd Tank Brigade, this is the military geek version of bird-watching, more or less.
Air defense - There has been a lot of noise and chatter about western air defense systems coming to Ukraine, or not, but the internet kicked up a report that a Greek S-300 system, that has long been en route, actually got handed over this week. Supposedly it used to be based on Crete to keep the Libyans from shooting missiles at the Americans military personnel based there.
Pretty much the entire laundry list of NATO spiffy anti-aircraft weapons are, from what I gather, supposed to get another system into Ukraine in the next week or two, or have just done so and now they’re plugging into the air defense network: Patriot for sure, possible second system a thin maybe, SAMP/T for sure, NASMS for sure, IRIS-T for sure and one or more systems maybe. Also even the Spanish version of Hawk, or perhaps, more American Hawks to shoot off formerly Spanish launchers, because the Ukrainians already shot off the Hawk missiles the Spanish sent them.
The point here is, somewhere in the next couple of weeks, if supply pipeline reports are accurate, the Ukrainians are on track to go from “air defenses stretched thin” to “capable of picking a sector of the front and closing the sky above it”. I’m not saying General Zaluzhny will do it, but he has to be thinking about it. Stock image of Greek S-300.
French/Danish artillery - The Ukrainian internet is reporting that all the Danish Caesar artillery pieces -Copenhagen basically removed howitzers from the Danish army to do this - are now operational in Ukraine. Apparently the Danes improved on the French original by placing the gun on a Czech Tatra 8x8 truck, and we all know how tough Tatras are, and increasing the carried ammo from 18 to 30 shells. This is interesting a few ways, first this means the Danish Caesars are now, probably, the single most powerful artillery pieces on the battlefield, second here’s a rare video of a Caesar doing its thing, and third to register some European nations’ ability, even without being in major wars, to manufacture real weapons that function well in real combat.
AND the Americans - The latest round of assistance is worth $300 million and is almost totally ammo - howitzer shells, air-to-ground rockets, HIMARS missiles, and Carl Gustav anti-tank rockets. The announcement formalized US delivery of Zuni 70mm air-to-ground rockets to Ukraine; we have known about that from pictures on the internet showing Ukranian helicopters with Zunis on them, for about a week. Image of some Zunis with the traditional Ukrainian wishes to targeted Russians written on them
Bi-partisan - I sometimes have trouble understanding how America is supposedly so divided against itself, and all this American stuff that keeps coming in such volumes, that here in Ukraine it really looks like the overwhelming majority of the US national leadership has decided they are fed up with Vladimir Putin and waffling Europeans. Then I saw this, and I’m even more confused about how the Democrats and Republicans can’t work together and America is doomed, because from a chair in Ukraine, you get a pretty different impression:
https://thehill.com/.../3981595-mccarthy-to-russian.../
And finally, if you’ve read this far, attached is a person speaking on RF state television, in a state-controlled “talk show”, in which a man says the problem in the war is that the leadership of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions is absolutely corrupt, and Russia really made a mistake by supporting these fake states. Since every word on these programs one assumes must be strictly controlled, perhaps we are seeing Russia propagandists starting to prepare viewers for “Russian peace with honor”, that is, throw Donetsk and Luhansk under the bus and declare victory and leave Ukraine.
NOTE: A sharp-eyed reader pointed out that this is a dated video at least three years old and so not fresh like I thought. The thought is interesting but it's certainly not proof of current Kremlin thinking.
