Kenneth Gregg no bullshit update za danas.
12.04.2023 the update.
Since it was a while since I accounted for the whole frontline, I will start with it today.
Belarusian and Siverskyi fronts - no changes.
Around Svatove, local battles continue along the entire contact line. Near Novoselivske, tourists' attempts to advance have failed. In the forests of Kreminna, the enemy continues to increase the pressure in order to push us out of the Serebryansky forest.
In Bakhmut - in recent days tourists managed to occupy the railway station, the agricultural school and the Avangard stadium.
The flanks have since some time been reinforced by the tourists' airborne units. Recently, reinforcements also came from the People's Republic of Donetsk (occupied Ukrainian territory). Tourists concentrate their forces on a relatively small frontline area inside the city and carry out distracting / disruptive attacks from north and south - a side effect of the convexity of the contact line.
At Avdiivka - a new attack by tourists in Pervomayske was suffocated. Tourists' attempts to improve their tactical position in Maryinka and near Krasnogorivka continue. Near Vodyane, the enemy could not establish their position and had considerable losses.
About Zaporizhzhia - no changes.
Around Tavria - no changes.
Generally speaking, the dynamics in Bakhmut have stabilized, but the situation is very difficult, Bakhmut is "exploding" and we know it very well. But it is important to read reports from the area critically and perceive reality as it is; unpredictable and constantly changing.
We have the line of defense at the railway but the tourists have come through in the north, so the next line of defense will be at the big park. After that, the road to Ivanivske will probably be the main line of defense and then Chasiv Yar.
Satellite images from Maxar from April 10 confirm the destruction of Bakhmut's town hall, the tax office building and some other buildings after the battles.
I would like to highlight the heroism of the guys from the 1st Mec Battalion "Da Vinci's Wolves" (67th Separate Mechanized Brigade), who have defended the important road to Bakhmut for one and a half months now.
My second half of the update is about what troop forces the tourists have on the fronts right now. The data has been collected from various sources and I point out that these numbers are more or less my speculations BUT quite advanced ones.
KHARKIV OBLAST: 48,600 soldiers, which makes 251 soldiers/km front line and 300 men/battalion
Here is the largest concentration at Kreminna.
BAKHMUT: 7000 regular army soldiers plus 22,000 Wagners, which makes 271 soldiers / km front line and 200 men / battalion
DONETSK: 23,050 soldiers, which makes 127 soldiers / km front line and 200 men / battalion
ZAPORIZHZHIA: 23,350 soldiers making 107 soldiers/km front line and 280 men/battalion
KHERSON: 15,600 soldiers which makes 57 soldiers / km front line and 370 men / battalion.
These figures are AFTER tourists moved troops from Kreminna to Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Vuhledar. If we had abandoned Bakhmut, the moving movement would have been the opposite, i.e. you would have freed crew TO Kreminna. In that case, the big question is; would our people have resisted an attack on Lyman and then Sieversk? I personally think that would have been very difficult. By staying in Bakhmut, we have thinned healthy among their crew, tied up elite soldiers and forced tourists to use huge amounts of ammunition.
At the same time, it should be noted that the tourists have put in the reserve and are in great need of a new mobilization. That mobilization takes a minimum of 2 months since it has been started. The Duma has passed a new law that enables the mobilization of men electronically. Further, their freedom of travel has been restricted, urged those who are abroad to return and join the military.
It is now a race with time for us to get the offensive going before the tourist country starts calling in more cannon food. That's why Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Marinka and Vuhledar are so important to keep.
GLORY TO UKRAINE
