Here’s my review for the last 24-36 hours (13 Mar 22). By Tom Cooper
Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review for the last 24-36 hours (13 Mar 22).
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GMRD - Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MANPAD – man-protable air defence system
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
STRATEGIC
….the third week of the Russian three-days liberation operation in Ukraine is going according to Putin's plan…
....which, of course, is pure, distilled sarcasm: as indicated already 4-5 days ago, the Russians are losing this war. What has changed by now is that it's near-certain they're on the best way to some sort of a sudden collapse. The question is only when and where is this going to happen.
Russian Deputy Smoker… erm Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergey Ryabkov is warning that Russia would target Western shipments of military equipment to Ukraine. Well, good luck alone with finding these… No idea if that should mean targeting Turkish cargo aircraft hauling additional Bayraktars and their ammo to Poland, just for example: with that useless conference in Izmir over, one departed Turkey today.
The Ukrainian MOD claims that out of 117 BTGs the RFA has deployed in Ukraine, 31 were rendered incapable of continuing combat operations: indeed, that 13 have been destroyed, 15 withdrawn out of Ukraine. Let's be realistic and gauge about one third of this for truth. Say, 10 were rendered incapable of combat operations, 4-5 destroyed. At least some of this is - _de-facto_ - confirmed by reports from Belarus, according to which hospitals in Homiel, Mazyr, and Naroulia are stuffed full with dead and wounded RFA troops: the local personnel is forced to sign NDAs, of course…
....though, let us not forget that it's similar on the other side. For example, the Russians are assuming they've destroyed at least 5-6 Ukrainian regiments and brigades (for those not used to military vocabulary, _roughly_, units on both sides are organised along the following rule: 3 companies = battalion; 3 battalions = regiment; 3 regiments = brigade... it's just so that the Russians predominantly fight in so-called 'battalion tactical groups', each of which consists of a battalion, reinforced by different elements - usually: companies - from other battalions of the same brigade, while the Ukrainians fight in battalions and brigades, i.e. have next to no regiments).
Unsurprisingly, there is an increasing number of reports about a possible involvement of Belarussian Armed Forces in invasion of Ukraine. Kyiv claimed the Russian aircraft have bombed 2-3 towns in Belarus in a ‘false flag’ operation, possibly as a pretext for a Belarussian invasion of western Ukraine. Hm… sure, Lukashenko is in love with Putin, no doubt about that, but considering the number of deserters from his armed forces that have joined the Ukrainians, meanwhile I have my doubts about him ordering any of his units over the border – only to risk them falling apart on first sight of problems…? By all of Putin’s promises for deliveries of S-400s, Iskanders etc: that might not be opportune for Lukashenko’s own health, first and foremost….
AIR
The People in the Need of Fresh Air (the Pentagon) are meanwhile producing almost as much nonsense about the air war as the Keystone Cops in Moscow (Russian MoD), or diverse of US think-tanks and Experten….. They say the VKS is flying 200 sorties a day, but ‘some never enter Ukraine’s air space’. Aha. Makes me wonder: would USAF’s E-3 AWACS’, KC-135 tankers, and RC-135s SIGINT-gatherers enter Ukrainian airspace if in the same situation….? After all, only a few years ago multiple US Experten were strongly advising against even thinking about establishing a no-fly zone over Syria – because of very strong Assadist air defences… And then, they say, ‘Russia’s fleet of combat helicopters has largely gone unused’. And, of course, the reason should be US-made Stinger MANPADS supplied to Ukraine… Guess, the Pentagon missed only some 6-7 heliborne assaults (some including 30+ helicopters), and all the Russian Mi-24/35s, Mi-28s, Ka-52s, and Mi-8s shot down – many by Polish-made Pioruns…. No, it’s so that because somebody there urgently needs (a lots of) fresh air, the VKS helicopters are not flying, and then solely because of Stingers – all of which is the reason why the VKS lost two helicopters shot down in the Kherson area, yesterday (one of these was the Ka-52 with registration RF-13408).
….just like the Keystone Cops in Moscow have ‘neutralised’ the Ukrainian Air Force so much and so often, that meanwhile their counting must be going into ‘minus’: i.e. include aircraft and UAVs which Ukraine never had… and as a confirmation for that, yesterday they targeted the fuel depot of the Vasylkiv AB (SE of Kyiv) with two or three ballistic missiles: the place was originally a scene of a fierce VDV assault, back on 26 February – undertaken because the Pentagon is sure the Russian helicopter fleet is not used…
...why destroying their fuel - if Ukrainians are all shot down or destroyed and not flying...?
Ah, my never-ending unpleasant questions: I'm such a party crasher...
Full revelation here: I love official statements. I love them. Especially those of military spokespersons: they’re the love of my life… almost as much as super-smart US think-tanks: they’re all so super-cool, I can’t stop ridiculing them.
NORTH
Once again, the super-clever US think-tanks are reporting about the Russians ‘halting all operations to regroup and resupply’, just like for more than a week now. ….or at least about the ‘Russians focusing their efforts on just four points’.
Ok, seriously now: the RFA in Ukraine might be close to the breaking point. Indeed, I think that if the Ukrainians could concentrate enough troops and gear, and give them a blow at some unexpected point in time and space, this entire ‘special operation’ would collapse like a house of cards. The point is: I do not see the intensity of the Russian operations _really_ slowing down. On the contrary. At most, some of ops might be disturbed by Ukrainian Bayraktar TB.2 UCAVs, which seem to be intensively tracking down and destroying forward Russian HQs (Russian generals have to command ‘from the front’, because of general disorder and poor communications).
Anyway… the Western flank of the 35th CAA seems to be in the eastern approaches to Korosten. Entirely ignored in all the reports so far, this town is protected by the 12th Brigade of the Ukrainian Territorial Defence. That said, until the West OSK can create wonders, and find, say, another full combined arms army (perhaps from Belarus?), I do not expect it to undertake further offensive operations in this area. At most, this is just adding to the dispersion of available units over an even larger area....
Immediately north of Kyiv, the Russians are not only not coming forward because much of the area is flooded (as reported about a week ago), but also because there might have been some kind of klix within one of RFA-units, yesterday. RUMINT had it (and mind that the mass of Russian military communications is easy to intercept), ‘the Chechens were hunting fleeing Russian soldiers in the woods’, and there should have been several executions in the Borodyanka area. I’ve got next to no doubt that, after their heavy losses while trying to penetrate Kyiv, in the first days of the war, Kadyrov’s gang is keen to get hold of a few Russians…
On the western side of Kyiv, the Russians seem to be convinced to have destroyed two out of what they think were 6-7 Ukrainian brigades defending the capitol, and are thus assessing the situation as in their favour. During the day, they were assaulting from Makariv towards south and south-east, towards Vitrivka and Bobrytsa, both of which are mid-way between the E40 and E95 highways. As far as I know, the Ukrainians might have only some 3-4 weak battalions there (the mass of their surviving brigades is deeper inside western Kyiv), but have offered bitter resistance, and heavy fighting was reported from Kopyliv and Yasnohorodka – with, as of yet, unclear outcome.
According to a video released by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, the RFA is now deploying laser-guided Krasnopol artillery shells on this battlefield.
On the eastern side of Kyiv, the 2nd GTA’s attacks into north-east and east Kyiv were all repelled, as was its attempt to cut off the road to Poltava. Brovary is still under Ukrainian control, too. That much with ‘Guard’s quick advance’ in this part of Ukraine.
NORTH-EAST
Gauging by what diverse Russian contacts say, they actually have no clear picture about what’s going on in the Chernihiv area, but think that the 41st CAA is streaming in southern direction on either side of the city. Actually, the pocket of Chernihiv is still holding very well, but it seems the Russians have reached at least the outskirts of Nizhyn and nearby Kruty. Until 1-2 days ago, the Ukrainians were able of contacting their garrison in Mena, from there (and from Chernihiv), but I’m not sure if this is still possible: apparently, the whole highway E101 is now under the Russian control (well, as far as the RFA has troops to exercise that control): point is that the 41st CAA needs so many troops to keep all these Ukrainian garrisons under pressure, that it simply can’t join the 2nd GTA in eastern outskirts of Kyiv.
In the back of the 2nd GTA, Ukrainian garrisons of Shostka and Konotop are holding out, too. Actually, it seems at least a BTG of that Russian army is just busy trying to interdict the contact between Konotop and Ukrainian positions about 40-50km south of the town. Simply too few troops for that task, too…
The garrison of Sumy is holding out, as are those of Lebedyn and Okhtryka, although meanwhile at least 50-60km behind the spearheads of the 1st GTA (i.e. its 47th GTD and 4th GTD): they seem to be invested by elements of the 27th GMRD. I’m not yet sure if the 4th GTD has managed to exploit its break-through, two days ago, and at least reached the suburbs of Poltava. The road from there to Kyiv is definitely – and ‘still’ – open. (Wouldn’t be surprised if the ‘elite’ is continuing to lose direction or suffering from lack of fuel necessary to keep on pushing).
Kharkiv was heavily shelled throughout the day, but the southern flank of the 1st GTD failed to exploit its opportunity to close on the city from the west, two days ago. Thus, the Ukrainian 92nd Mech remained free to run ‘active defence’ – and ambush additional Russian supply convoys: plentiful of supplies to loot there.
However, the Russian breakthrough south-east of this city is now a serious affair, as the 144th MRD has reached Lozova (on P51 road), and Barvinkove in the south, and seems to have at least taken parts of Izium, if not secured it entirely.. AFAIK, Luzova is held by a regiment of the local National Guard, and thus – probably – safe. However, Barvinkove was unprotected, and -together with Izium - is in the rear of the northern group of Ukrainian forces along the LOC – including its HQ in Kramatorsk – was yesterday in danger of being cut off from Dnipro/Dnepropetrovsk. We’ll see how is this going to develop, but, and no matter how much they might be weakened, and once again: there can be no talk about some sort of ‘Russians making a cigarette break’ or whatever.
EAST
East of Izium, it seems the Ukrainians have managed to stabilise their north-eastern frontline now stretching from Popasna, via Lysychansk to Sievierodonetsk, to Rubshne and Kreminna. Of course, the LNR is particularly proud for it…that is: the Russians - now control about 70% of the Luhansk Oblast, and have captured a few T-64s and other vehicles.
South of that area: the LOC was largely quiet yesterday, as the Russians concentrated all their attention on Mariupol. In that city, the 150th MRD of the 8th CAA seems to have made some advances from the east, yesterday, but their going is slow, because most of outlying roads are blocked by barricades (see attached photo), and because one of super-smart officers of that division ordered his tanks forward through narrow streets, without any kind of infantry support…. Think, they really need some Assadists: these are excelling in getting cut to pieces while running their urban-warfare operations in exactly that fashion.
Apparently, part of the Azov Regiment (locals report ‘regiment’, not ‘battalion’) remained in Mariupol after all, and claimed the destruction of two Russian MBTs and two IFVs. Locals report ‘street battles continue’. The VKS has heavily bombed the centre of the city: apparent targets were the building of the International Committee of the Red Cross, and the Ukrainian Branch of the Red Cross. Both were missed and the bombs destroyed a shopping centre and several residential houses, ‘instead’. Tragically, at least six civilians – including two children – were killed today, and overall: more civilians were murdered in Mariupol by Russian bombs and artillery than the entire Ukrainian Army has (officially) lost in this war so far. Most heavily hit is the Primorsky District: there the Russians targeted the Mosque of Sultan Soleiman the Magnificent (and his wife, Roxana), where about 70-80 Turkish students took shelter. The local National Guard units are urgently demanding support by Bayraktars.
Directly behind the Russian troops, the FSB is already arresting mayors of nearby villages… (just like, after days-long anti-Russia-, anti-war mass-protests in Melitopol, they arrested the local mayor): makes one wonder if they already have their counterpart to 'Einsatzgruppen' organised, too...
North of Mariupol….this is now a mess… according to the Russians, the Ukrainians have stabilised their frontlines through bringing in their 55th Artillery Regiment to pin down the Russians in Staroliynivka, while withdrawing what’s left of their 54th Mech towards north. With this, the pocket north of Mariupol would have been evacuated and the Ukrainian frontlines now about 80km north of the port….BUT, the Ukrainians claim they have counterattacked and retaken Volnovakha – a place that was bitterly contested for most of the last week, just 15km north of Mariupol.
….now try to make up your mind what of this is truth, and what not…. Guess, once again, we’ve got to be patient and wait for an update.
SOUTH
The 49th CAA did try to close the encirclement of the 54th Mech by a strong attacks on Hulyaipole, but well… trust the Russians or trust the Ukrainians now? Unless the Ukrainians really counterattacked at Volnovakha, I am leaning towards them actually trading space for time, and withdrawing towards north: the more of Ukraine the Russians occupy, the more troops they need just to secure the occupied areas… On the other hand, it’s not like the 49th and 8th CAA have that many troops in the Mariupol area. Even if Separatists are included, they’ve got some 5-6 BTGs there. That’s nothing 2-3 Ukrainian brigades couldn’t outmatch, especially if ‘protected’ from the VKS by bad weather… Once again, we’ve got to wait and see.
West of Dnepr, the 20th GMRD of the 59th CAA has opened its assault on Kryvyi Rih, defended by the Ukrainian 17th Tank and the local units of the National Guard. The local air base was heavily hit by ballistic missiles yesterday, too. Beyond that, there are no other details… except that, supposedly, the Russians should be advancing up the western side of the Dniepr River, too. At what exactly: no idea, because there’s next to nothing there for about 200km, i.e. the road connecting Kryvyi Rih with Dnipro…
Back in the south, the – apparently reinforced – 7th VDV Division has re-launched its assault on Mykolaiv, with a fierce artillery barrage, followed by an infantry assaults through the northern outskirts. As of the time this was written, I do not know if it had any success.
Most surprising for me is that the Russians are not trying to, say, build a pontoon bridge somewhere between Mykolaiv and Voznesensk, or to launch another heliborne attack on, say, the Martynivske AB, in order to try punching over the Buh river in direction of Odessa or Transnistria. Sure, there are very few good roads on the western side of the Buh, but that would be a better idea than entirely pointless advance on Kryvyi Rih or a renewed assault on well-protected Mykolaiv (which I consider unlikely to be successful).
....Or, perhaps they do? Late in the afternoon, two VKS helicopters were claimed as shot down ‘in the Kherson area’: one of them, a Ka-52, was confirmed by a video. One of the crew survived. We’ll see what’s going to come out of that, too…
.
Neko od raje pitao gdje je ovo u Ukrajini 
