USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
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Sultanahmed
- Posts: 421
- Joined: 03/01/2020 12:29
#1927 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Mislim da pobjeđuje trump lagano
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omar little
- Posts: 17298
- Joined: 14/03/2008 21:14
#1928 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Tara Reade Is Making It Harder to Hide Joe Biden
By Zak Cheney-Rice
Joe Biden’s most effective campaign strategy has been to lie low and let people vote for whatever imagined version of Joe Biden congealed inside their heads. On Friday, he went on MSNBC’s Morning Joe to discuss the Tara Reade allegations. It was not a good argument for changing this strategy.
For the most part, the interview with Mika Brzezinski held few surprises: Biden denied the allegations that he assaulted Reade in 1993, when she was on his Senate staff, while maintaining that women who make such allegations should be heard and have their claims investigated seriously. He declined to speculate as to Reade’s motives and called on the secretary of the Senate to search for her complaint in the National Archives — the “only … place a complaint of this kind could be,” Biden said. Less surefooted than these broad strokes were their substance and delivery. Soon after Biden called for the search, a National Archives spokesperson told Business Insider that they do not hold the records to which he referred, which, if true, means the vice-president directed the inquiry toward an easily verifiable dead end. More predictably, Biden proved to be an uninspiring spokesperson for himself, fumbling his words at times and cutting himself off mid-sentence, unprompted.
It vividly distilled his party’s bigger plight. With the general election looming, Democrats have organized, rationalized, and voted themselves into the unenviable but richly earned position of having a presumptive nominee who’s at his best when he’s neither speaking nor appearing in public. While other campaigns busied themselves with big plans, stirring rhetoric, and disruptive ideological positions, Biden’s candidacy has been judged by one criterion to the exclusion of all others: whether it’s up to the task of beating President Trump. Poll after poll has shown that Democrats privileged this metric in an outsize manner when winnowing the primary field, which included contenders who diverged negligibly from Biden in both demographic and ideological terms. But what the other candidates lacked has proved to be determinative: a career long, resilient, and ideologically contortive enough to have produced allies and admirers at every level of American politics, and the imprimatur of serving under the party’s most mythologized figure, President Obama. The persuasive heft this combination gave Biden’s pitch as a proven winner and America’s best bet for a return to normalcy — meaning the pre-Trump status quo that gave us Trump — was such that being the prohibitive front-runner where some candidates had campaigned for months merely required him to show up.
He proceeded to test voter goodwill at every turn. He reminisced fondly about working with segregationists, even as his record as a busing opponent, “tough on crime” zealot, and architect of punitive criminal-justice policy came under fire. He joked glibly about asking permission to touch his supporters, shortly after more than half a dozen women came forward with accounts of him touching them inappropriately. Perhaps most damning to the prospect of his running a presidential administration come January, to say nothing of four to eight years from now, the 77-year-old proved to be senescent, leaving thoughts unfinished in his public remarks, going off on tangents from which there was little hope of returning, and stumbling through debate appearances while his opponents ran roughshod over his stream of gaffes. It didn’t matter. His lead in the polls collapsed only briefly when Bernie Sanders’s momentum heading into the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada primaries — contests that Biden had largely dismissed as lost causes anyway — suggested a general-election viability to rival his own. But a livelier-than-usual debate performance and endorsement from Representative Jim Clyburn cemented the vice-president’s South Carolina firewall and restored his winner’s sheen. He won that election in a landslide, prompting several challengers to drop out and endorse him. His victories on Super Tuesday and beyond left Sanders with little choice but to do the same.
This all happened despite Biden getting out-organized, out-debated, and out-spent by one or more of his opponents, sometimes several at a time, most glaringly in states like Alabama, Maine, and Minnesota, where the vice-president had no field offices but won anyway. That voters in these states could crib together their champion from fragments of a comparatively nonexistent effort to win them over suggests it hasn’t mattered much what Biden says, does, said, or did, as long as he can win — an endeavor aided immeasurably by the fact that everything else he does seems immaterial. The result is a national campaign to elect someone who exists largely in the minds of Biden’s supporters. Luckily for the real Biden, nobody to whom he’s inclined to listen is asking him to be anything more.
Nor, it seems, has his MSNBC appearance given them a good reason to. Quite the contrary: In the face of mounting evidence that Reade’s allegations are more than the baseless smear his campaign has dismissed them to be, Biden has mostly faded into the background while his surrogates, supporters, and some pundits went to bat for him, deploying timeworn canards about sexual assault victims and what circumstances justify disbelieving them, or dismissing Reade outright before a fuller picture sees daylight. When pressed on the latest developments — that Reade told a neighbor and a former co-worker about her assault shortly after it’s alleged to have happened, according to Business Insider — columnists from the New York Times to the Nation stepped up to discredit her, and politicos from Stacey Abrams to Nancy Pelosi reaffirmed their support of the vice-president. Even Kirsten Gillibrand, who drew ire from within the Democratic Party when she pushed for Al Franken to resign after evidence of his misconduct surfaced in 2017, doubled down on her support. (That it’s fallen mostly on women to speak for Biden when he’s hesitant to speak for himself — and will likely continue to be — indicts both his strategy and the sexist standards from which it profits.)
We’re now at the point where corroborating testimony supporting Reade’s allegations meets or exceeds the threshold established by those made against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and President Trump. Many of their defenses are now being deployed to protect a man whose efforts to nullify the former’s power and depose the latter are being framed by his supporters, and even some of his skeptics, as America’s best alternative to catastrophe, moral and otherwise. Opportunism guides political behavior as much as cynicism and hypocrisy shape it. That’s about as involved an explanation as this reversal merits, I think. More striking is that Biden hasn’t had to do much of the defending himself. Mounting evidence supporting Reade’s claim makes things harder, but he’s largely staying true to the strategy that’s guided his campaign since early on, which holds that the winningest Biden is one to be imagined, not seen, heard, or even thought about too hard. His staff recognizes that the less its candidate speaks, the less opportunity his supporters have to neglect evidence that undermines their faith — in his competence, his election odds, and, increasingly, his innocence. If there’s one thing for which the Democrats have yet to punish Biden this cycle, it’s his silence in the face of lingering doubt. To change that now would be to change the very foundation of his campaign’s success.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05 ... reade.html
By Zak Cheney-Rice
Joe Biden’s most effective campaign strategy has been to lie low and let people vote for whatever imagined version of Joe Biden congealed inside their heads. On Friday, he went on MSNBC’s Morning Joe to discuss the Tara Reade allegations. It was not a good argument for changing this strategy.
For the most part, the interview with Mika Brzezinski held few surprises: Biden denied the allegations that he assaulted Reade in 1993, when she was on his Senate staff, while maintaining that women who make such allegations should be heard and have their claims investigated seriously. He declined to speculate as to Reade’s motives and called on the secretary of the Senate to search for her complaint in the National Archives — the “only … place a complaint of this kind could be,” Biden said. Less surefooted than these broad strokes were their substance and delivery. Soon after Biden called for the search, a National Archives spokesperson told Business Insider that they do not hold the records to which he referred, which, if true, means the vice-president directed the inquiry toward an easily verifiable dead end. More predictably, Biden proved to be an uninspiring spokesperson for himself, fumbling his words at times and cutting himself off mid-sentence, unprompted.
It vividly distilled his party’s bigger plight. With the general election looming, Democrats have organized, rationalized, and voted themselves into the unenviable but richly earned position of having a presumptive nominee who’s at his best when he’s neither speaking nor appearing in public. While other campaigns busied themselves with big plans, stirring rhetoric, and disruptive ideological positions, Biden’s candidacy has been judged by one criterion to the exclusion of all others: whether it’s up to the task of beating President Trump. Poll after poll has shown that Democrats privileged this metric in an outsize manner when winnowing the primary field, which included contenders who diverged negligibly from Biden in both demographic and ideological terms. But what the other candidates lacked has proved to be determinative: a career long, resilient, and ideologically contortive enough to have produced allies and admirers at every level of American politics, and the imprimatur of serving under the party’s most mythologized figure, President Obama. The persuasive heft this combination gave Biden’s pitch as a proven winner and America’s best bet for a return to normalcy — meaning the pre-Trump status quo that gave us Trump — was such that being the prohibitive front-runner where some candidates had campaigned for months merely required him to show up.
He proceeded to test voter goodwill at every turn. He reminisced fondly about working with segregationists, even as his record as a busing opponent, “tough on crime” zealot, and architect of punitive criminal-justice policy came under fire. He joked glibly about asking permission to touch his supporters, shortly after more than half a dozen women came forward with accounts of him touching them inappropriately. Perhaps most damning to the prospect of his running a presidential administration come January, to say nothing of four to eight years from now, the 77-year-old proved to be senescent, leaving thoughts unfinished in his public remarks, going off on tangents from which there was little hope of returning, and stumbling through debate appearances while his opponents ran roughshod over his stream of gaffes. It didn’t matter. His lead in the polls collapsed only briefly when Bernie Sanders’s momentum heading into the Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada primaries — contests that Biden had largely dismissed as lost causes anyway — suggested a general-election viability to rival his own. But a livelier-than-usual debate performance and endorsement from Representative Jim Clyburn cemented the vice-president’s South Carolina firewall and restored his winner’s sheen. He won that election in a landslide, prompting several challengers to drop out and endorse him. His victories on Super Tuesday and beyond left Sanders with little choice but to do the same.
This all happened despite Biden getting out-organized, out-debated, and out-spent by one or more of his opponents, sometimes several at a time, most glaringly in states like Alabama, Maine, and Minnesota, where the vice-president had no field offices but won anyway. That voters in these states could crib together their champion from fragments of a comparatively nonexistent effort to win them over suggests it hasn’t mattered much what Biden says, does, said, or did, as long as he can win — an endeavor aided immeasurably by the fact that everything else he does seems immaterial. The result is a national campaign to elect someone who exists largely in the minds of Biden’s supporters. Luckily for the real Biden, nobody to whom he’s inclined to listen is asking him to be anything more.
Nor, it seems, has his MSNBC appearance given them a good reason to. Quite the contrary: In the face of mounting evidence that Reade’s allegations are more than the baseless smear his campaign has dismissed them to be, Biden has mostly faded into the background while his surrogates, supporters, and some pundits went to bat for him, deploying timeworn canards about sexual assault victims and what circumstances justify disbelieving them, or dismissing Reade outright before a fuller picture sees daylight. When pressed on the latest developments — that Reade told a neighbor and a former co-worker about her assault shortly after it’s alleged to have happened, according to Business Insider — columnists from the New York Times to the Nation stepped up to discredit her, and politicos from Stacey Abrams to Nancy Pelosi reaffirmed their support of the vice-president. Even Kirsten Gillibrand, who drew ire from within the Democratic Party when she pushed for Al Franken to resign after evidence of his misconduct surfaced in 2017, doubled down on her support. (That it’s fallen mostly on women to speak for Biden when he’s hesitant to speak for himself — and will likely continue to be — indicts both his strategy and the sexist standards from which it profits.)
We’re now at the point where corroborating testimony supporting Reade’s allegations meets or exceeds the threshold established by those made against Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and President Trump. Many of their defenses are now being deployed to protect a man whose efforts to nullify the former’s power and depose the latter are being framed by his supporters, and even some of his skeptics, as America’s best alternative to catastrophe, moral and otherwise. Opportunism guides political behavior as much as cynicism and hypocrisy shape it. That’s about as involved an explanation as this reversal merits, I think. More striking is that Biden hasn’t had to do much of the defending himself. Mounting evidence supporting Reade’s claim makes things harder, but he’s largely staying true to the strategy that’s guided his campaign since early on, which holds that the winningest Biden is one to be imagined, not seen, heard, or even thought about too hard. His staff recognizes that the less its candidate speaks, the less opportunity his supporters have to neglect evidence that undermines their faith — in his competence, his election odds, and, increasingly, his innocence. If there’s one thing for which the Democrats have yet to punish Biden this cycle, it’s his silence in the face of lingering doubt. To change that now would be to change the very foundation of his campaign’s success.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05 ... reade.html
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1929 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Da pola clanka autor nije proveo pljujuci po Bidenu u vezi stvari koje nemaju veze sa naslovom, jos bi citalac pomislio da mu je u interesu istina.
Nek ga istraze uzduz i poprijeko. Biden je stara generacija, ne bi uopste cudili ovakvi “ispadi”. Samo je pitanje detalja. Postoje sudovi za to, a postoji i sud javnog mijenja, a postoji valjda i nacin na koji se neko moze braniti optuzbi.
Samo znam da ako je Biden na listi Demokrata protiv Grab-Them-by-the-Pussy Trumpa necu imati dileme za koga da glasam. A s obzirom kakva je klima u zemlji, sumnjam da ce i drugi drukcije razmisljati. Jedino ce onima koji su svakako vec donjeli odluke u svom izboru ovaj slucaj posluziti kao samo jos jedan izgovor da iskazu svoj nivo samozadovoljstine ega.
Nek ga istraze uzduz i poprijeko. Biden je stara generacija, ne bi uopste cudili ovakvi “ispadi”. Samo je pitanje detalja. Postoje sudovi za to, a postoji i sud javnog mijenja, a postoji valjda i nacin na koji se neko moze braniti optuzbi.
Samo znam da ako je Biden na listi Demokrata protiv Grab-Them-by-the-Pussy Trumpa necu imati dileme za koga da glasam. A s obzirom kakva je klima u zemlji, sumnjam da ce i drugi drukcije razmisljati. Jedino ce onima koji su svakako vec donjeli odluke u svom izboru ovaj slucaj posluziti kao samo jos jedan izgovor da iskazu svoj nivo samozadovoljstine ega.
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ultima_palabra
- Posts: 59289
- Joined: 15/12/2008 16:53
#1930 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
A gospođa čekala 27 godina pravi momenat da se oglasi...
I kako se ovdje uopšte može išta dokazati? Njegova riječ protiv njene.
I kako se ovdje uopšte može išta dokazati? Njegova riječ protiv njene.
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1931 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Pa tako je uglavnom za vecinu slucajeva silovanja. Jako su teski za dokazati, a laki za odbraniti, barem sto se tice sudskog prava.ultima_palabra wrote: ↑04/05/2020 04:00 A gospođa čekala 27 godina pravi momenat da se oglasi...
I kako se ovdje uopšte može išta dokazati? Njegova riječ protiv njene.
U ocima javnosti vjerovatno je obratno.
Ja bih prije vjerovao nekoj zeni nego njemu, ali ko zna, mozda je malo nakitila pricu i dobijes to sto dobijes. Mene bi vise iznenadilo da neki od senatora u to vrijeme nisu bili zenskarosi.
Helem, uglavnom se ovdje radi o sudu javnosti, bar iz ovog za sad. U pravu si kad kazes da joj vrijeme u koje je s ovim izasla u javnost ne ide nikako u prilog u ocima javnosti (bilo je o ovome price i proslo ljeto, ali je tek nedavno podnjela zvanicnu izjavu, sedmicu nakon sto je prakticno postao kandidat). Nije da je Biden bio nepoznata licnost do sad. Lik je bio VP jbt i senator 40 godina.
Da ne govorim on tome da ga je Obamina kampanja prilikom odabira sigurno detaljno istrazila.
Na kraju kao sto rekoh sumnjam da je u ocima javnosti ovo bitno, osim onima koji su davno odlucili da za Bidena nece glasati u novembru. Da je Bill Clinton danas kandidat ovo uopste ne bi bio faktor, kao sto nije bio ni kad mu se zena kandidovala. Ima kretena koje bi ova prica cak privukla kandidatu (recimo neki dan Trump dao izjavu u njegovu odbranu). Powerful old white men se uvijek drze zajedno.
Ne znam ko bi se radi ovoga predomislio i odlucio da je bolje da Trump bude jos 4 godine predsjednik.
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1932 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
I samo da ovo jos dodam, ja sam znao da ce ovakve orice poceti cim se zavjesa spusti na primaries, ko god da je postao kandidat.
Naravno samo bi skandali bili drukciji, sta god da je slaba tacka kandidatu i u sta je lakse vjerovati. Zbog toga ce ovoj zeni biti teze da kaze svoju pricu bas sada i da joj ljudi vjeruju.
Mah, bice ovakvih optuzbi jos. Pa Bidena je puno zema optuzilo za pipkanje i slicno. Pa onda prica da je pedofil, itd. Jako je tesko u toj kakofoniji (dez)informacija probrati sta ima smisla.
Nek istraze sta mogu vec istraziti pa cemo vidjeti.
Naravno samo bi skandali bili drukciji, sta god da je slaba tacka kandidatu i u sta je lakse vjerovati. Zbog toga ce ovoj zeni biti teze da kaze svoju pricu bas sada i da joj ljudi vjeruju.
Mah, bice ovakvih optuzbi jos. Pa Bidena je puno zema optuzilo za pipkanje i slicno. Pa onda prica da je pedofil, itd. Jako je tesko u toj kakofoniji (dez)informacija probrati sta ima smisla.
Nek istraze sta mogu vec istraziti pa cemo vidjeti.
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Lakat Jebić
- Posts: 8040
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#1933 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
apsolutno ste sve upravu.
samo to sve nije bilo važno kad su bile optužbe protiv bretta kavanaugha
samo to sve nije bilo važno kad su bile optužbe protiv bretta kavanaugha
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omar little
- Posts: 17298
- Joined: 14/03/2008 21:14
#1934 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
opetovano, toliko o principima. trulo.kada je ona optuzila kavanaugh nakon 30 godina i sa manje svjedoka, bilo je dovoljno. sada, posto je biden u biden u pitanju, rabe se republikanski talking points i optuzuje se zena za sve od da je lazov do da je ruski igrac.
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omar little
- Posts: 17298
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#1935 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
demokrata.
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omar little
- Posts: 17298
- Joined: 14/03/2008 21:14
#1936 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Sep 17, 2018 Press Release
Contact: Ashley Etienne/Henry Connelly, 202-226-7616
San Francisco – Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi issued this statement on the allegations regarding Judge Brett Kavanaugh:
"I applaud the courage of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford to come forward to share her story. As we continue to learn more about these allegations against Judge Kavanaugh, we must ensure that Dr. Ford’s rights to justice and privacy are respected. Survivors should be supported when they come forward without the fear of threats or further trauma. There must be an acknowledgement of the life-long impact of this episode, the cost to the family of coming forward and the gravity of a lifetime Supreme Court nomination.
"Failure to postpone this vote without due process and a thorough investigation into these serious and credible allegations would be a dereliction of Congress' duty to demand zero tolerance of sexual harassment and abuse.”
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1938 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Last edited by jeza u ledja on 04/05/2020 16:43, edited 1 time in total.
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1939 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Njega izabire Senat (tj. potvrdjuje). Ne izabiru ga glasaci. Kao sto rekoh, u pravnom procesu (ili u ovom slucaju zakonski regulisanom) jako je tesko dokazati krivnju, a jako lako se odbraniti. Kavanaugh nije imao potrebu dobiti podrsku javnosti. U ocima javnosti, situacija je obratna. U stvari i krivicu i nevinost je jako tesko dokazati. Ostaje samo "nahodjenje", a ono je vec ukalkulisano u recept. (Naravno, osim ako ne dobijemo jos dokaza.)Lakat Jebić wrote: ↑04/05/2020 13:19 apsolutno ste sve upravu.
samo to sve nije bilo važno kad su bile optužbe protiv bretta kavanaugha
I ono sto je najbitnije, ovdje su u pitanju izbori. Izbor izmedju dva kandidata, od kojih je jedan grab-them-by-the-pussy predsjednik.
Interesantno, Kavanaugh nije prvi ovakav sudija koji je zasjeo na klupu. Jedan takav vec sjedi tamo 30 godina - (Clarence Thomas). Njega je Anita Hill optuzila za napastvovanje, bilo je isto ovakvo "javno sudjenje" i spektakl, a komitetom je predsjedavao....drum roll....Joe Biden.
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omar little
- Posts: 17298
- Joined: 14/03/2008 21:14
#1940 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
bazdi licemjerje.
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Lakat Jebić
- Posts: 8040
- Joined: 10/06/2008 15:47
#1941 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
irelevantno ko koga bira. govorim o publici, javnom mišljenju i "talking points."
al pretpostavljam da ce, ako ovo kojim slucajem ostane u javnosti, kompletan "me too" pokret biti fino preispitan (sto je, doduse, trebalo davno uradit, al to je sad skroz druga tema)... odjednom postoji due process...
al pretpostavljam da ce, ako ovo kojim slucajem ostane u javnosti, kompletan "me too" pokret biti fino preispitan (sto je, doduse, trebalo davno uradit, al to je sad skroz druga tema)... odjednom postoji due process...
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1942 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Iz tebe bazde zesci kompleksi, ali nemam ja zivaca pomagati ti da ih se otarasis. Jedino sto znas je postavljati nadobudne, sociopatske opaske.
Hajd sad, potapsi se malo po ledjima i postavi jos jedan drski komentar, kako samo ti znas.
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1943 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Ah, mislis mediji? Pa mediji naravno funkcionisu kako za koga navijaju. Malo ko ce tu napraviti pravi balans.Lakat Jebić wrote: ↑04/05/2020 16:53 irelevantno ko koga bira. govorim o publici, javnom mišljenju i "talking points."
al pretpostavljam da ce, ako ovo kojim slucajem ostane u javnosti, kompletan "me too" pokret biti fino preispitan (sto je, doduse, trebalo davno uradit, al to je sad skroz druga tema)... odjednom postoji due process...
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Lakat Jebić
- Posts: 8040
- Joined: 10/06/2008 15:47
#1944 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
ne brate, omladinajeza u ledja wrote: ↑04/05/2020 17:11Ah, mislis mediji? Pa mediji naravno funkcionisu kako za koga navijaju. Malo ko ce tu napraviti pravi balans.Lakat Jebić wrote: ↑04/05/2020 16:53 irelevantno ko koga bira. govorim o publici, javnom mišljenju i "talking points."
al pretpostavljam da ce, ako ovo kojim slucajem ostane u javnosti, kompletan "me too" pokret biti fino preispitan (sto je, doduse, trebalo davno uradit, al to je sad skroz druga tema)... odjednom postoji due process...
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
- Joined: 29/12/2005 01:20
#1945 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Sta kaze omladina?Lakat Jebić wrote: ↑04/05/2020 17:24ne brate, omladinajeza u ledja wrote: ↑04/05/2020 17:11Ah, mislis mediji? Pa mediji naravno funkcionisu kako za koga navijaju. Malo ko ce tu napraviti pravi balans.Lakat Jebić wrote: ↑04/05/2020 16:53 irelevantno ko koga bira. govorim o publici, javnom mišljenju i "talking points."
al pretpostavljam da ce, ako ovo kojim slucajem ostane u javnosti, kompletan "me too" pokret biti fino preispitan (sto je, doduse, trebalo davno uradit, al to je sad skroz druga tema)... odjednom postoji due process...
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ultima_palabra
- Posts: 59289
- Joined: 15/12/2008 16:53
#1946 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Pa Biden je vec bio drugi covjek USA, i to dva mandata, to joj nije bilo dovoljno da izadje i upozori Amerikance da biraju seksualnog predatora? Cak ni citav primaries proces?
Po meni je kljucna razlika u tome sto Kavanaugh nije prije toga u bio u national limelight, pa je mozda dr Ford u tom trenutku osjetila obavezu da izadje i kaze svoje.
A vidjeli smo vec na sta je Trump spreman da bi ocrnio Bidena, a zna se koliko je ovo pitanje bitno za demokratske glasace. Kad se to sve zbroji normalno je da ce biti ljudi koji ne vjeruju.
Po meni je kljucna razlika u tome sto Kavanaugh nije prije toga u bio u national limelight, pa je mozda dr Ford u tom trenutku osjetila obavezu da izadje i kaze svoje.
A vidjeli smo vec na sta je Trump spreman da bi ocrnio Bidena, a zna se koliko je ovo pitanje bitno za demokratske glasace. Kad se to sve zbroji normalno je da ce biti ljudi koji ne vjeruju.
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Lakat Jebić
- Posts: 8040
- Joined: 10/06/2008 15:47
#1947 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Razumijem logiku, al national spotlight ovdje nije ključan. Odnosno, nije samo to. Ključno je da li si na tom spotlightu bio prije ili poslije "me too" pokreta. A Bidenovo vicepredsjednikovanja je bilo duboko prije.ultima_palabra wrote: ↑04/05/2020 20:26 Pa Biden je vec bio drugi covjek USA, i to dva mandata, to joj nije bilo dovoljno da izadje i upozori Amerikance da biraju seksualnog predatora? Cak ni citav primaries proces?
Po meni je kljucna razlika u tome sto Kavanaugh nije prije toga u bio u national limelight, pa je mozda dr Ford u tom trenutku osjetila obavezu da izadje i kaze svoje.
A vidjeli smo vec na sta je Trump spreman da bi ocrnio Bidena, a zna se koliko je ovo pitanje bitno za demokratske glasace. Kad se to sve zbroji normalno je da ce biti ljudi koji ne vjeruju.
Da se razumijemo, za mene ovo nije nešto na što bi trebalo potrošit previše vremena. Ali isto sam mislio i za Kavanaugha i doktoricu Ford.
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RunnerX
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#1948 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
“To my knowledge, this is the first time in its 40 year history that CNN had been threatened with legal action because an American politician or campaign did not like CNN’s polling results.”
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jeza u ledja
- Posts: 50492
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#1949 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Nego....
Posto se non stop vrte neke ankete u kojim Biden vodi, pravi se usporedba sa 2016-om i kao i Clinton je vodila tada pa je na kraju izgubila, ali na kraju nije bila tolika razlika izmedju anketa i rezultata. I uglavnom ide taj neki narativ koji i ja ponavljam.
Medjutim sad sam se odlucio malo zadubiti u ankete prije 4 godine po pojedinacnim drzavama i bogami i po ovim kljucnim je Clinton cijelo vrijeme "vodila" da bi na kraju na dan izbora izgubila.
Gledam na primjer Michigan. Na dan izbor prosjek anketa je bio +3.4% prednosti za Clinton, a stvarni rezultat je bio -0.3% (pobjeda Trumpa). Znaci razlika 3.7% u gresci. Kad se pogledaju ankete cijelo vrijeme tokom kampanje - Clinton je u Michiganu vodila, u jednoj anketi cak i sa 13%. Danas, Biden u anketama u MI vodi sa +8.0%.
U Pennsylvaniji, danas Biden u prosjeku anketa vodi +5.6%, isto kao sto je prije 4 godine vodila cijelo vrijeme Clinton. U svakoj maltene anketi ona je bila u prednosti, cak do 13%. Na dan izbora prosjek anketa je pao na samo +1.9%, a stvaran rezultat je bio pobjeda Trumpa 0.7% (znaci razlika 2.6%).
U Wisconsinu, danas Biden u prosjeku anketa vodi +5.4%, kao i prije 4 godine sto je vodila Clinton u sve i jednoj anketi. Na dan izbora bila je cak u prednosti +6.5%, sa bi izgubila sa 0.7% (Razlika u gresci 7.2%).
U Ohiu je danas prednost Trumpa samo na 0.5%, a Biden je u mnogim anketama cak i vodio. Trump je i prije 4 godine u anketama vodio u Ohiju ali je do septembra uglavnom vodila Clinton. Na dan izbora prednost Trumpa je bila na +3.5%, ali je on je pobijedio sa cak +8.1% (greska od 4.6%)
U Iowi danas Trump vodi +1.5%, prije 4 godine je vodio +3.0%, ali je na kraju uzeo sa +9.5% (razlika 6.5%)
Namjerno sam izdvojio ove drzave jer su u Midwestu, koji je dozivio najvecu prijelaz iz plavog u crveno na zadnjim izborima, i mescini da su greske u anketama tamo bile najizrazenije.
Ali evo da pogledamo i ostale battleground states:
Na Floridi danas Biden u prosjeku anketa vodi +6.2%. Prije 4 godine je u vecini anketa vodila Clinton i tokom ljeta su se mjenjala vodjstva. Medjutim pred sam kraj Trump ju je prestigao da bi na dan izbora njegova prednost bila na +0.2%. Stvaran rezultat je bio +1.2% (Znaci greska od 1%)
U North Carolini danas Trump vodi 0.6%. Slicno kao na Floridi Clinton i Trump su se tamo izmjenjivali u vodjstvu da bi na kraju Trump imao prednost od +1.0%. Pobijedio je sa +3.7 (Znaci greska 2.6%).
U Arizoni je mozda i najveca promjena jer uglavnom vodi Biden (trenutno na +4.0%). Medjutim prije 4 godine je uglavnom vodio Trump u odnosu na Clinton i na kraju imao +4.0% prednosti, da bi pobijedio sa +3.5% (sto znaci da je greska bila samo 0.5% ali u suprotnom smjeru)
U New Hampshireu, jedinoj od ovih drzava koju je uzela Clinton, danas Biden vodi +4.3%. Prije 4 godine, iako je Clinton skoro cijelo vrijeme vodila, na kraju je prednost bila samo u +0.6% u njenu korist, da bi uzela sa +0.3% (znaci greska samo 0.3%)
Helem, ispada da su ankete najvise promasile upravo u kljucnim drzavama na Midwestu. Tu je najveci postotak ljudi koji su ili slagali na anketama, ili su neki izostali na izborima. Pretpostavljam, radnicka klasa, bijelci, koji su u tim drzavama gdje su jaki sindikati tradicionalno glasali za D. Sa opadanjem uticaja sindikata i sa propadanjem industrije, poceli su se mijenjati i politicki afiniteti. Sad, moguce da se mali postotak ljudi koji je cijeli zivot glasao za D "stidio" da kaze svoje pravo misljenje, a moguce i da su jednostavno Trumpovi ljubitelji bili jako entuzijasticni na dan izbora.
Danas, moglo bi naravno opet pretpostaviti isto - da ankete ne broje na pravi nacin jedan mali djelic glasaca koji bi glasali za Trumpa. Ako je to tacno, a s obzirom na greske u racunici iznad, moglo bi se teoretisati da Bidenu na dan izbora treba bar +6.0% u tim drzavama da bi u njima bio siguran pobjednik. U Michiganu dobro stoji, ali u PA, FL i WI je na liniji.
Naravno, ovo je uz pretpostavku da ankete opet fulaju na isti nacin kao i prije 4 godine - da odredjeni procenat Trumpovaca laze (ili jos bolje - trola anketare ). Medjutim, ljudi cesto prave gresku pa na osnovu prethodnih kretanja predvidjaju buduca. Mozda ce to biti tako, mozda ne.
Druga bitna varijabla u formuli je ono sto mediji zovu "enthusiasm gap". Prosli puta mislim da se moze sa sigurnoscu reci da su Trumpovci bili entuzijasticniji od Clintonovaca. To se vjerovatno moze reci i danas, s tom razlikom da su "anti-Trumpovci" vjerovatno vise entuzijasticni nego onda (kad su svi ocekivali pobjedu Clinton). Kad smo kod ovog ocekivanog, ovdje malu ulogu igraju i kandidati ostalih stranaka. (Teoretski da su glasovi Zelenih bili za Clinton ona bi bila predsjednik, slicno kao i 2000-e Al Gore). Ne znam kakvu ulogu igraju danas, ne cuje se o njima puno, ali siguran sam da ce biti prisutni.
Dodatnu stvar koju igra je trend. Moze se primjetiti trend u jednom smjeru zadnjih par sedmica u korist Trumpa, prije 4 godine. Ankete cesto ne pokupe taj trend na vrijeme, tj. kasne za stvarnim stanjem.
Uglavnom, moj zakljucak je da su stvari na manje-vise istom kao i prije 4 godine i da ce odlucivati nijanse. Ankete se nece puno mijenjati do novembra, ali i to malo sto se promjene bi moglo biti kljucno. Ako Biden bude na +5% u ovim drzavama i na nacionalnom nivou na dan izbora i ako ne budemo vidjeli trend prema Trumpu.
Trenutno je u prosjeku anketa Biden cak na +9.8% u odnosu na Trumpa (najveca u zadnjih 6 mjeseci), sa trendom na gore. Kad bi danas bili izbori, a naravno nisu, stavio bih pare na Bidena. Medjutim sumnjam da ce razlka ostati ovako velika jos dugo.
Posto se non stop vrte neke ankete u kojim Biden vodi, pravi se usporedba sa 2016-om i kao i Clinton je vodila tada pa je na kraju izgubila, ali na kraju nije bila tolika razlika izmedju anketa i rezultata. I uglavnom ide taj neki narativ koji i ja ponavljam.
Medjutim sad sam se odlucio malo zadubiti u ankete prije 4 godine po pojedinacnim drzavama i bogami i po ovim kljucnim je Clinton cijelo vrijeme "vodila" da bi na kraju na dan izbora izgubila.
Gledam na primjer Michigan. Na dan izbor prosjek anketa je bio +3.4% prednosti za Clinton, a stvarni rezultat je bio -0.3% (pobjeda Trumpa). Znaci razlika 3.7% u gresci. Kad se pogledaju ankete cijelo vrijeme tokom kampanje - Clinton je u Michiganu vodila, u jednoj anketi cak i sa 13%. Danas, Biden u anketama u MI vodi sa +8.0%.
U Pennsylvaniji, danas Biden u prosjeku anketa vodi +5.6%, isto kao sto je prije 4 godine vodila cijelo vrijeme Clinton. U svakoj maltene anketi ona je bila u prednosti, cak do 13%. Na dan izbora prosjek anketa je pao na samo +1.9%, a stvaran rezultat je bio pobjeda Trumpa 0.7% (znaci razlika 2.6%).
U Wisconsinu, danas Biden u prosjeku anketa vodi +5.4%, kao i prije 4 godine sto je vodila Clinton u sve i jednoj anketi. Na dan izbora bila je cak u prednosti +6.5%, sa bi izgubila sa 0.7% (Razlika u gresci 7.2%).
U Ohiu je danas prednost Trumpa samo na 0.5%, a Biden je u mnogim anketama cak i vodio. Trump je i prije 4 godine u anketama vodio u Ohiju ali je do septembra uglavnom vodila Clinton. Na dan izbora prednost Trumpa je bila na +3.5%, ali je on je pobijedio sa cak +8.1% (greska od 4.6%)
U Iowi danas Trump vodi +1.5%, prije 4 godine je vodio +3.0%, ali je na kraju uzeo sa +9.5% (razlika 6.5%)
Namjerno sam izdvojio ove drzave jer su u Midwestu, koji je dozivio najvecu prijelaz iz plavog u crveno na zadnjim izborima, i mescini da su greske u anketama tamo bile najizrazenije.
Ali evo da pogledamo i ostale battleground states:
Na Floridi danas Biden u prosjeku anketa vodi +6.2%. Prije 4 godine je u vecini anketa vodila Clinton i tokom ljeta su se mjenjala vodjstva. Medjutim pred sam kraj Trump ju je prestigao da bi na dan izbora njegova prednost bila na +0.2%. Stvaran rezultat je bio +1.2% (Znaci greska od 1%)
U North Carolini danas Trump vodi 0.6%. Slicno kao na Floridi Clinton i Trump su se tamo izmjenjivali u vodjstvu da bi na kraju Trump imao prednost od +1.0%. Pobijedio je sa +3.7 (Znaci greska 2.6%).
U Arizoni je mozda i najveca promjena jer uglavnom vodi Biden (trenutno na +4.0%). Medjutim prije 4 godine je uglavnom vodio Trump u odnosu na Clinton i na kraju imao +4.0% prednosti, da bi pobijedio sa +3.5% (sto znaci da je greska bila samo 0.5% ali u suprotnom smjeru)
U New Hampshireu, jedinoj od ovih drzava koju je uzela Clinton, danas Biden vodi +4.3%. Prije 4 godine, iako je Clinton skoro cijelo vrijeme vodila, na kraju je prednost bila samo u +0.6% u njenu korist, da bi uzela sa +0.3% (znaci greska samo 0.3%)
Helem, ispada da su ankete najvise promasile upravo u kljucnim drzavama na Midwestu. Tu je najveci postotak ljudi koji su ili slagali na anketama, ili su neki izostali na izborima. Pretpostavljam, radnicka klasa, bijelci, koji su u tim drzavama gdje su jaki sindikati tradicionalno glasali za D. Sa opadanjem uticaja sindikata i sa propadanjem industrije, poceli su se mijenjati i politicki afiniteti. Sad, moguce da se mali postotak ljudi koji je cijeli zivot glasao za D "stidio" da kaze svoje pravo misljenje, a moguce i da su jednostavno Trumpovi ljubitelji bili jako entuzijasticni na dan izbora.
Danas, moglo bi naravno opet pretpostaviti isto - da ankete ne broje na pravi nacin jedan mali djelic glasaca koji bi glasali za Trumpa. Ako je to tacno, a s obzirom na greske u racunici iznad, moglo bi se teoretisati da Bidenu na dan izbora treba bar +6.0% u tim drzavama da bi u njima bio siguran pobjednik. U Michiganu dobro stoji, ali u PA, FL i WI je na liniji.
Naravno, ovo je uz pretpostavku da ankete opet fulaju na isti nacin kao i prije 4 godine - da odredjeni procenat Trumpovaca laze (ili jos bolje - trola anketare
). Medjutim, ljudi cesto prave gresku pa na osnovu prethodnih kretanja predvidjaju buduca. Mozda ce to biti tako, mozda ne.Druga bitna varijabla u formuli je ono sto mediji zovu "enthusiasm gap". Prosli puta mislim da se moze sa sigurnoscu reci da su Trumpovci bili entuzijasticniji od Clintonovaca. To se vjerovatno moze reci i danas, s tom razlikom da su "anti-Trumpovci" vjerovatno vise entuzijasticni nego onda (kad su svi ocekivali pobjedu Clinton). Kad smo kod ovog ocekivanog, ovdje malu ulogu igraju i kandidati ostalih stranaka. (Teoretski da su glasovi Zelenih bili za Clinton ona bi bila predsjednik, slicno kao i 2000-e Al Gore). Ne znam kakvu ulogu igraju danas, ne cuje se o njima puno, ali siguran sam da ce biti prisutni.
Dodatnu stvar koju igra je trend. Moze se primjetiti trend u jednom smjeru zadnjih par sedmica u korist Trumpa, prije 4 godine. Ankete cesto ne pokupe taj trend na vrijeme, tj. kasne za stvarnim stanjem.
Uglavnom, moj zakljucak je da su stvari na manje-vise istom kao i prije 4 godine i da ce odlucivati nijanse. Ankete se nece puno mijenjati do novembra, ali i to malo sto se promjene bi moglo biti kljucno. Ako Biden bude na +5% u ovim drzavama i na nacionalnom nivou na dan izbora i ako ne budemo vidjeli trend prema Trumpu.
Trenutno je u prosjeku anketa Biden cak na +9.8% u odnosu na Trumpa (najveca u zadnjih 6 mjeseci), sa trendom na gore. Kad bi danas bili izbori, a naravno nisu, stavio bih pare na Bidena. Medjutim sumnjam da ce razlka ostati ovako velika jos dugo.
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ultima_palabra
- Posts: 59289
- Joined: 15/12/2008 16:53
#1950 Re: USA - Izbori za predsjednika 2020
Postoji taj mit o skrivenim Trumpovim glasacima. Ja nekako vise vjerujem da dosta glasaca Hillary nije taj dan izaslo na biralista.