U.S. Comprehensive Strategy Toward Russia
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Issue: Russian Influence in the Balkans, Greece, and Cyprus
Problem. While security in the Balkans region has improved dramatically since the 1990s, sectarian divisions remain and have been exacerbated by sluggish economies, high unemployment rates, and political corruption. Moscow has exploited these tensions to advance a pro-Russia agenda with the goal of keeping these countries out of the transatlantic community.
Serbia. In 2014, Serbia and Russia signed a strategic partnership agreement on economic issues, but Russia’s recent decision to scrap the South Stream gas pipeline is a blow to Serbia and will likely cost Serbia billions of euros of inward investment and thousands of local jobs. Despite these developments, Russia signed an agreement with Serbia to allow the basing of Russian soldiers at Niš airport, which Serbia has used to meddle in northern Kosovo.[28]
Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina is on the path to joining the transatlantic community, but has a long way to go. It negotiated a Stabilization and Association Agreement with the EU, but the agreement is not in force because Bosnia and Herzegovina has not implemented key economic and political reforms. Progress on full NATO membership has been stalled because defense properties in the country are not under the Ministry of Defense’s control. Moscow knows that the easiest way to prevent Bosnia and Herzegovina from entering the transatlantic community is to exploit internal ethnic and religious divisions.
Montenegro. Russia and Montenegro have had close relations for three centuries, and Montenegro walks a fine line between maintaining close ties with Russia while strengthening ties to the West. The country has been successful in keeping the nation focused on joining the transatlantic community, but there are signs that public opinion is losing patience with the West after long delays in joining NATO and the EU.
After Russia annexed Crimea, the Montenegrin government backed European sanctions against Moscow and even implemented its own sanctions. However, when NATO failed to invite Montenegro to join the Alliance at the September 2014 Wales Summit, some senior Montenegrin officials, including the prime minister, questioned whether sanctions were the right course of action.[29] Russia has significant economic influence in Montenegro and is the country’s largest inward investor.[30]
Greece. The victory of the leftist Syriza party (Greek Coalition of the Radical Left) in the January 2015 Greek elections has given Russia a potential ally inside the European Union. The Russian ambassador was the first official visitor received by newly elected Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras.[31] The shambolic state of the Greek economy affords Russia leverage inside Greece. Tsipras has called Western sanctions against Russia a “road to nowhere,”[32] which led to concern that Greece would block efforts to renew the sanctions when they lapsed in July, because all 28 EU member states would need to agree their renewal.[33]
Tsipras visited Moscow in April 2015 and signed an agreement for a “year of cultural exchange,” between the two nations beginning in 2016.[34] More substantively, Greek officials have signed a pipeline deal with Gazprom, which is controlled by the Russian government.[35] While Greece may be using Russia as leverage in its relations with the EU, the ideology and actions of the Syriza-led government are cause for concern.
Cyprus. Cyprus is a major offshore banking center for Russian cash and is still suffering the effects of its 2013 bank solvency crisis. President Nicos Anastasiades has criticized sanctions against Russia and visited Russia in February 2015. Russia’s agreement to restructure a €2.5 billion loan, which included an extension of the debt maturity from 2016 to 2018–2021,[36] may have played a role in the 2015 Cypriot decision to allow Russian naval assets regular access to its ports.[37] What seems clear is that Greece and Cyprus will remain prime targets of opportunity for Moscow in an effort to weaken the resolve of European nations to confront Russian aggression.[38]
Recommendations. The U.S. has invested a lot in the Balkans since the end of the Cold War. Tens of thousands of U.S. service members have served in the Balkans, and billions of dollars in aid have been spent there—all in the hope of creating a secure and prosperous region that will someday be part of the transatlantic community. As Russia attempts to undermine the political and security situation in the region, the U.S. should:
Stay engaged in the region. Russia hopes that the U.S. will be distracted by other international events and disengage from the region.
Stay committed to NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) mission. Ethnic tensions are increasing in Kosovo, especially in the ethnic Serb areas north of the Ibar River. With the potential for conflict present, the U.S. needs to ensure the KFOR mission continues.
Work closely with European allies. The U.S. should work closely with its European allies to keep the Balkans out of the Russian sphere of influence. In this regard, close cooperation with Germany is essential.
Support a realistic approach on Greece and Cyprus. Greek alignment with Russia is a reflection of Greek anger at its Western creditors, led by the EU and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the straightjacket of the euro. By the same token, Cyprus’s turn to Russia partly reflects its resentment of the European Union, which prompted a run on the banks in 2013. The U.S. should recognize that a Greek debt restructuring is unavoidable, that the same is true of Cyprus, and that a Greek exit from the euro is highly desirable.
Crack down on Russian ties to Cyprus. Corrupt Russian oligarchs with extremely close ties to the Putin regime prefer Cyprus because its governance standards are low and its climate is pleasant, making it a convenient bolt hole and vacation destination for rich Russians. The U.S. should make it clear to Cyprus that its future lies with the West and push Cyprus to reject ties with Russia and upgrade its governance.
Conclusion
Vladimir Putin has managed a remarkable feat. He has successfully fooled two successive Presidents of the United States—who could not have had more different personalities and political beliefs—into believing that he was, or could become, a reliable, and possibly even a democratic, partner with the United States. In both cases, the U.S. ultimately became disillusioned, but reality did not dawn until well into each President’s second term.
The United States cannot afford to be fooled a third time. Nor can it afford to approach Russia, and the problems it is creating, as though they are separate and unrelated. Naturally, no solution can address every problem. But at the heart of all these problems is a single one: the nature of the Russian regime. Clarity in U.S. comprehensive strategy toward Russia begins with understanding that Russia is not on a rocky road to democracy. It is an autocracy that justifies and sustains its hold on political power by force, fraud, and a thorough and strongly ideological assault on the West in general, and the U.S. in particular. The U.S. needs to approach Russia as Russia actually is, not as the U.S. wishes Russia might be.
In 1943, Winston Churchill, frustrated by years of Soviet complaints, perverted accusations of bad faith, and maltreatment, decided he had enough. As he put it, “Experience has taught me that it is not worth while arguing with Soviet people. One simply has to confront them with the new fact and await their reactions.”[56]
That is the correct course for the U.S. to follow toward Russia today. The U.S. has nothing to gain from seeking to argue its case with Russia. It should speak the truth, calmly show the Putin regime that the U.S. does not regard it as a fit international partner, and make clear that Russian aggression and hostility will henceforward carry predictable rhetorical and klix costs for Russia. It should then await the Russian reaction, and respond accordingly.
) Trump za sada gubi, a Rubio bolji nego sto se predvidjalo.
U Iowi ipak ponovo pobjedjuje religiozni frik kao i do sada.
