Sirija vol. 2

[insomnia78]

Necete u Canakkale niste ni prije

[Challenger_]

Nema pobjednika, zemlja se svakako nece obnoviti kao sto je bila.

Obnovili su se Jugoslavija i SSSR poslije rata, ne vidim ni jedan razlog zašto se ne bi obnovila i Sirija.

[Kikibombona]

Kako nece. Glaj kako su Palestinu izgradili. Poslije 2014-e obecane pare dali jedinu USA i EU, ostali uputili dove

Zanimljivo je kako se forumski Asadovci iscudjavaju zasto Kurdi ne prihvate ponizenje i sve poklone Asadu, dok se za isto vrijeme zalazu za borbu u Palestini i Kudsu do posljednjeg Palestinca.

Nigdje veze.

Pa ne napada Asad Kurde nego Turci.

To bi imalo smisla da Jordan ponudi Palestincima opet da se spoje sa Jordanom da ih Izrael ne tuče.

U tom slučaju bih podržao inicijativu iz Jordana.

Ne valja analogija.

Asad je neprijatelj Kurda, dok Jordanci nisu neprijatelji Palestinaca.

Da li bi podrzao da se Palestinci predaju Izraelu bez da zadrze ikakve poluge moci, vojne, politicke itd.!??

Izraelci ih handre skoro 60-70 godina, zasto se ne predaju?

Zasto ne pristanu na predaju Kudsa i ne prihvate mini drzavicu?
Mogu se onda spojiti sa Jordanom ako im volja.

Za Kurde i Palestince ne vaze ista pravila, valjda su Palestinci veci i bolji muslimani.

Vidis kako se muslimani raduju zato sto se Kurdi masakriraju dok istovremeno kmece na 100 puta blaze akcije Izraela protiv Palestinaca.

[aratet]

Nema pobjednika, zemlja se svakako nece obnoviti kao sto je bila.

Obnovili su se Jugoslavija i SSSR poslije rata, ne vidim ni jedan razlog zašto se ne bi obnovila i Sirija.

Obje su drzave se raspale, nastale su neke nove drzave.
BiH je recimo najgora drzava Evrope.
Sirija svakako nece biti ni blizu kao prije rata, a ni prije rata nije bila neki raj.

[славянин]

Ustat pa spomenut Čanakkale !

Što se tiče sultana i hilafeta, na Čanakkalama bi regularno bio spomenik britanskim herojima da Turcima bog nije kasnije poslao onog bezbožnika Ataturka.

A i božnika Erdu je valjda neko poslao

Selektivno pamcenje... zaboravljaju da je nakon mira viorila se Britanska zastava u Istanbulu a Otomansko carstvo iscjepkano na 30 dijelova... al ajde - pobijedili bitku izgubili rat...

[karakters]

Necete u Canakkale niste ni prije

Poruka od svetog Alije...

[Krokodajl]

@Kiki

Ne valja ni tebi. Porediti predaju Palestine Izraelu možemo samo ako bi poredili da se Efrin preda Turcima, Sirijska Arapska Armija nije ni jedan metak ispalila na Efrin u ovih 7 godina rata, a nije da nije imala razloga, od kukakvičkih napada u Hasaci pa do provokacija u Kamišliju, ali nisu.

Ni jedan avion nije poslan na Kurde, pa ni onda kada su vezivali zastave, a nije da nije bilo razloga.

[Krokodajl]

.

[Nadzornik]

Kratko i jasno.

#YPG / #SDF did 2 mistakes : 1st was to oust #Assad firces out of #Hasakah. 2nd was to take over Deir EzZor oil fields. They lost support or neutrality from #Assad & Russia

[sunceKOtepsija]

[Challenger_]

Nema pobjednika, zemlja se svakako nece obnoviti kao sto je bila.

Obnovili su se Jugoslavija i SSSR poslije rata, ne vidim ni jedan razlog zašto se ne bi obnovila i Sirija.

Obje su drzave se raspale, nastale su neke nove drzave.

Obje države su se itekako obnovile poslije II sv rata. Obnoviće se i Sirija.

Sirija svakako nece biti ni blizu kao prije rata.

Puko nagađanje.

[ovo_malo_duse]

Kad se sjetim s cime smo mi ratovali. Tek onda vidim koji su p...n dim cetlji bili. Da je nama za pola akcija bila ovakva priprema, ma pola ovoga, danas bi se dodo kurcio po rusiji.

[Nadzornik]

Prvi zarobljeni Kurdi.

[славянин]

Prvi zarobljeni Kurdi.

Sijeku cestovne komunikacije... ili bar to pokusavaju.Opet Kurdi nisu velika vojska pa da su im cestovne komunikacije toliko bitne prije da ce odabrati brda i sume da se krecu (Turska avijacija) - vjerovatno Turska vojska stvara preduslov da napreduje po tim cestama... Jeli proslo ona 3 sata

[Nadzornik]

Sa svih strana napadaju Kurde.

[Krokodajl]

Turci zauzeli još 2 sela.

[Nadzornik]

The moment #Turkish tank was destroyed by YPG in #Afrin

[Maystor]

Većina vas na forumu koji ste pisali o Efrinu ste tvrdili da Erdogan reži u prazno i da se ništa neće desiti (kad se sjetim nesretnog Patka, prasnem u smijeh, pa čovjek je promašio sve što je ikad izustio o Siriji). Bio bi red da kolegi Opetja033 odate priznanje na ispravnoj procjeni.

[Kikibombona]

@Kiki

Ne valja ni tebi. Porediti predaju Palestine Izraelu možemo samo ako bi poredili da se Efrin preda Turcima, Sirijska Arapska Armija nije ni jedan metak ispalila na Efrin u ovih 7 godina rata, a nije da nije imala razloga, od kukakvičkih napada u Hasaci pa do provokacija u Kamišliju, ali nisu.

Ni jedan avion nije poslan na Kurde, pa ni onda kada su vezivali zastave, a nije da nije bilo razloga.

Zaboravljas da je Efrin bio od velike pomoci Nublu i Zari.

Zaboravljas da je rezim bombardovao Sejh Maksud. Asad je Kurde ostavio za kraj. Nijd valjda da dovodis u pitanje netrepeljivost Baath rezima prema kurdskom narodu. Asad nije napao Efrin samo zato sto je slab. Da je jak, satrao bi ih kao i Turci.

A hajde, neka se Palestinci odreknu Kudsa, svakako grad kontrolise Izrael, pa neka ostatke Zapadne obale prikljuce Jordanu, pa neka tamo budu na nivou folklorne grupe, bez prava na ikakvo organizovanje. Da li bi ovo podrzao ili se ipak zalazes da Palestince nastave kao do sada, da pate pod sapom izraelskog agresora i okupatora!???

Puno je tu dvostrukih standarda moj Kroks. I ne zaboravi, Jordanci su se vec par puta najebali majke Palestincima i oteli im dosta zemlje. O tome niko ne govori.

[славянин]

Većina vas na forumu koji ste pisali o Efrinu ste tvrdili da Erdogan reži u prazno i da se ništa neće desiti (kad se sjetim nesretnog Patka, prasnem u smijeh, pa čovjek je promašio sve što je ikad izustio o Siriji). Bio bi red da kolegi Opetja033 odate priznanje na ispravnoj procjeni.

Sta se desilo jedno selo uzeli i to ne Turci nego njihovi orci oni

[Maystor]

Sjajan tekst, od pouzdanog autora, kako su tekli pregovori o Efrinu, šta su tražili od kurda, a šta su oni nudili ...

Syria - Turks Attack Afrin, U.S. Strategy Fails, Kurds Again Chose The Losing Side
After negotiations between Russia/Syria and the Kurds of Afrin had failed, the Russian side made a deal with Turkey. Now Turkey attacks Afrin while everyone else looks aside. The main impetus for this development was the announcement of a U.S. occupation in north-east Syria with the help of the Kurdish YPG/PKK. The occupation strategy is already failing. The Kurds made the false choice. They will be the losers of this game.

We had wrongly predicted that Turkish threats against the Kurdish held north-west area of Afrin were empty:

The threat is not serious:
...
Afrin is under formal protection of Russian and Syrian forces.
The real danger to Turkey is not Afrin but the much larger Kurdish protectorate the U.S. publicly announced in north-east Syria.
The Turkish threats and its artillery noise have led to counter noise from Syria and more silent advice from Russia. The Syrian government wants to show that it is the protector of all Syrian citizens be they ethnic Arabs or Kurds. Russia is proud of its role as the grown up who is calming down all sides.

Turkey is now attacking the Afrin canton in full force.


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The Turkish operation to go after Afrin was triggered by two events. The more important one was the U.S. announcement of a permanent occupation of north-east Syria with the help of a 30,000 men strong SDF "border protection force" consisting of mainly Kurds and some Arabs who earlier fought under ISIS. We had noted at that time:

The Turks were not consulted before the U.S. move and are of course not amused that a "terrorist gang", trained and armed by the U.S., will control a long stretch of their southern border. Any Turkish government would have to take harsh measures to prevent such a strategic threat to the country.
The U.S. move was amateurish. It ignored the security needs of its NATO ally Turkey in exchange for an illegal and unsustainable occupation of north-east Syria. Secretary of State Tillerson tried to calm the Turks by claiming that the "border protection force" was not for border protection. Reports from the training ground expose that as a lie:

"This force will be a foundational force to protect the borders of north Syria," proclaimed the announcer at the graduation ceremony.
A second motive for the Turkish operation was the success of the Syrian army in the east-Idleb where "Free Syrian Army" and al-Qaeda Takfiris supported by Turkey were eliminated by Syrian Army attacks.

The now unfolding Turkish operation was preceded by several rounds of negotiations.

The Syrian government and its Russian allies offered the Afrin Kurds to protect them from any Turkish attacks:

Nearly a week ago, [a] meeting between Russian officials and Kurdish leaders took place. Moscow suggested Syrian State becomes only entity in charge of the northern border. The Kurds refused. It was immediately after that that the Turkish Generals were invited to Moscow. Having the Syrian State in control of its Northern Border wasn't the only Russian demand. The other was that the Kurds hand back the oil fields in Deir al Zor. The Kurds refused suggesting that the US won't allow that anyway. The meeting was not exactly a success.
This account was confirmed by Kurdish negotiators:

Aldar Xelil (@Xelilaldar), member of the Democratic Free Society Tev-Dem: “In a meeting Russia proposed to the Afrin Administration that if Afrin is ruled by the Syrian regime, Turkey won’t attack it. #Afrin Canton Administration refused this proposal.”
The Kurds made a counteroffer. They would raise some Syrian flags and give up on the (mostly destroyed) Mengh air force base they hold but they were unwilling to give up any border control:

A translation from the Diken newspaper:

Amberin Zaman talked to Rojava officials Nobahar Mustafa and Sinam Mohammed. They say:
Russia aims to weaken the YPG and to turn Afrin over to "the regime."
We're still in negotiations with Russia. They said if you turn over Afrin to the regime it will protect you. We refused. We offered to turn over Menagh airbase and some other checkpoints but they refused.
We may pull out of Sochi
New alliances will be formed with Saudi, UAE, and Egypt.
Rojava forces commander General Mazlum and Ilham Ahmed have met Brett McGurk to ask the US to stop the Turkish attacks. This is a test of how reliable an ally the US is.
After the negotiations with the Kurds had failed Syria and Russia, which was the negotiating entity, made a deal with Turkey. Turkey had agreed to a de-escalation zone in Idleb but never proceeded to set up the promised observation posts in the al-Qaeda ruled area. Turkey had supported al-Qaeda. Fighting it directly is against Turkish interests. It is itself too vulnerable as many al-Qaeda fighters have family and friends living within Turkey.

The new deal will give Syria control over most of Idleb in exchange for Turkish control over Afrin (if the Turks can indeed take the area). In parallel to the start of the Turkish operation the Syrian army took the air base Abu Duhur in east-Idleb. It will eliminate whatever is left of al-Qaeda and ISIS in the now closed cauldron. It will then proceed further into Idelb governorate.


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Having Turkey take over Afrin is bad for Syria. Any agreement with the shifty Turkish President Erdogan will likely not hold for long. But having the Kurds ally with the U.S. in a permanent occupation of the north-east is even worse.

The Syrian government has rejected Turkish claims that it was informed about the attack and officially condemned the Turkish move. But it can do little against it. Its army is depleted and engaged elsewhere. Neither Russia nor Iran would support an open conflict with Turkey.

Turkish media are in full war mode:

Turkish papers this morning:
Hurriyet: Our jets hit #Afrin. Turkey’s heart beats as one
Sabah: We hit them in their den
Haberturk: Iron fist to terror, olive branch to civilians
Sozcu: We said we would strike despite the US and Russia. We struck the traitors
Turkey has launched a quite large operation against Afrin. Its air-force is bombarding the area. It is now sending its most modern tanks. The "Free Syrian Army" Turkey supports and controls will be its front line infantry that is sure to bleed the most. Afrin is mountainous and it will be a difficult fight. Two Turkish tanks have already been destroyed. The Kurds are well prepared and armed. Both sides will have lots of losses.

Meanwhile the Syrian army and its allies will have time to take over Idelb.

The U.S. is left with a mess. Its strategy for Syria, only announced last week, is already falling apart. Its Central Command rejected any responsibility for the Kurds in Afrin while allying with the Kurds in the east. These are the same people. The Kurdish military commander in Afrin earlier fought in Kobane. Now Turkish planes are taking off from the U.S. build Incerlik air base to bomb the Kurds in the Syrian west while U.S. tanker planes take off from Incirlik to support the U.S. alliance with the Kurds in the east.

The Arab group Jaysh al Thuwar was part of the Arab fig leaf that disguises the Kurdish command over the U.S. supported SDF in the east. It has now turned sides and is back under Turkish tutelage. More elements of the SDF will change sides. We can expect "insider attacks" against the U.S. forces who are training them.

The Kurdish command blames Russia for the Turkish attack on Afrin. That is laughable. Syria and the Russians had supported the Kurds throughout the war. They were the first to deliver weapons and ammunition to the Kurds for the fight against the Takfiris. It were the Kurds that changed sides and invited the U.S. occupation. It is the Kurds that announced that would ask for Saudi support.

Just a few month ago the Kurdish project in Iraq failed miserably. The Iraqi government took back all gains the Kurds had made over a decade and the U.S. did nothing to help their Kurdish "allies". Why do the Kurds in Syria believe that their immense overreach will have a different outcome?

Posted by b on January 21, 2018 at 07:44 AM | Permalink

[Krokodajl]

@Kiki, zato i kažem da im to Jordan ponudi naspram ovog što im Izrael radi to bi prihvatio.

Ne bi status Palestinaca unutar Jordana bio ništa bolji nego status Kurda što je unutar S.A.R.

Razlika je u tome što je Kurdima nešto ponuđeno, Palestincima nije.

[fosna2014]

Kurdish sources report that 5 turkish tanks were hit by ATGMs in #Afrin.

2 in Şera, 1 in Bulbul and 2 in Shahba

[_BataZiv_0809]

Ne kontam sta sad Turci hoce.

[fosna2014]