2. "Ukraine’s National Guard and Territorial Defense units are mostly doing the cleaning up in the north. Regular units are moving east. Russia has tried to hinder that movement, for example by targeting railway stations. But these hits can be avoided by Ukraine."
3. "Besides the Belgorod fuel and arms depots the railway also allegedly got hit by Ukraine (unconfirmed), meaning Russia now has to move eastwards through a longer route in the north."
4. "The equipment Russia managed to get out of the Kyiv area is to large extent not usable anymore. It’s 260km from Kyiv to Gomel. That equipment won't be able to manage such a long journey."
5. "Equipment that was withdrawn from Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv areas might be in a little better shape as it’s a much shorter distance from those areas across the border."
6. "Still needs repair work which will take days at minimum. Russia doesn’t have a proper replacements. They have a reserve of equipment that hasn’t been touched for 20-30 yrs. But it'll fall apart because it hasn't been maintained at all. Some has been stolen."
7. "So what will happen on the eastern front? Some Ukraine & Russia analysts say Russia might not prepare a massive offense but will try to bolster current borderlines. The logic: if they’d fail with a massive offense, that’d be it and they’d suffer a total defeat..."
7. cont'd: "Ukraine would have a chance to liberate areas occupied since 2014."
8. "If they dig in where they are now, they can say that they gained something. I don’t believe such a scenario though. VVP has the вперёд (forwards!) mindset. I just don’t see where they’ll take the units and equipment from."
9. "Regarding Ukraine's strength: If they manage to get their ranks in order, they can defend well. To go on the offensive, I'm not so sure. For that they lack needed equipment such as armored vehicles, medium and long-range missiles, etc."
10. "Ukraine has armor but it’s considerably less than Russia's. What the Western allies have promised to send helps to make the deficit shorter but not equal. Also, I can’t see so much additional equipment that could still be promised that would change that balance."
11. "So, in order for Ukraine to liberate all territories, Russian troops need to suffer complete demoralization."
12. "The frontline in the east could become very long. It’s possible that Russia doesn’t plan an all-out attack there but will start from the sides: from Mariupol and moving up from there; from Izium and Kramatorsk moving downwards and get Ukrainian units in a sack."
13. "Russia made progress around Izium last week but after that has been stalled for the last 4-5 days by the Donets river. Strongest battles are currently ongoing there."
14. "No reason to really worry about a new wave of offense coming from the north for now. Clearly the units are moving eastwards inside Belarus. There can be missile strikes on the targets in Kyiv but these will be solitary attempts."
15. "Putin might dream of reaching Kyiv when (if) Russia breaks through from the east, but that’s unrealistic. Distances are huge. Their equipment won’t last."
16. "Ukraine air defense in Kyiv was set up so strong that nothing hit the city center for the last weeks. This allowed the country’s leadership to operate. Now Ukraine is partially taking air defense also farther east..."
16' cont'd: "They need to defend Kramatorsk where the Ukrainian military HQ for the eastern operations is. They also need to bolster Dnipro." // END
Estonski analiticar vecinom je dosad pogadjao.tj imao prave informacije. Pa vrijedi procitati.
I da, ko cita ruske izvore nek se ne zamara
Dakle ocekuje se fajt i ukri premjestaju j3dinive tamo lakse no ruje jer ne zaobilaze a dosts ovog og kijeva i nije cemu posle prezivljemog horora.
Isti moj ratni drug Mujo, volio je ovako šiljit brkice nosit arkanovku na glavi i sijac lastio ko abuzenze trofej sa žuči... brkica je legenda.
