"Blood Will Be Shed
As certain to fail as it may be, it appears the US is determined to attempt to insert ground forces into Iran.
And given how obsessed Trump is with market movements, it seems likely they will time this ground assault to coincide with the upcoming 3-day market closure, which begins later today at 1600 EDT — so almost midnight Tehran time.
What exactly the mission of these elite American ground forces will be remains a mystery. But there are only a few plausible alternatives:
an amphibious / airborne insertion in the vicinity of Chabahar on Iran's far southern coast
an assault launched from Kurdistan in the far north
an assault launched from Kuwait, possibly with the aim of seizing Kharg Island
All three options are, in my estimation, nucking futs; absolutely doomed to failure; very possibly the most catastrophic American military operation since Burnside's disaster at Fredericksburg in 1862 and Grant's blood bath at Cold Harbor in 1864.
Although I am not aware of any definitive intelligence on force disposition, my sense is that the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked on the USS Tripoli would be assigned to assault Chabahar; the 82nd Airborne would launch from Kuwait, and various special forces units will join with Kurdish allies to launch from Kurdistan.
An attempted seizure of Kharg Island is the stupidest of the three potential objectives, and probably the least likely.
Chabahar entails the second greatest potential for disaster — not only will the Tripoli and its escorts be susceptible to anti-ship attacks, but once the Marines are deposited ashore, safely extracting them will prove exceedingly problematic.
At least an attack in Kurdistan has the virtue of retaining practicable avenues of retreat.
If a Marine assault in Chabahar is planned, then the USS Tripoli must already be in position, which means it is, as we speak, within relatively easy range of Iranian anti-ship missiles.
Also, if Chabahar is the target, then we should assume the USS Fraidy Abe and its destroyers will have mustered the courage to venture much closer to the Iranian coast than they have been over the past month — meaning more targets for Iranian anti-ship missiles.
Anyway, the whole thing is crazy. And it won't surprise me if this "ground invasion" plan is called off at the last minute.
But then, I resisted for a long time believing the US would even launch this war against Iran in the first place. So, I am undoubtedly once again underestimating how stupid the people commanding this continuing debacle really are.
This is the bottom line: if the US actually does this extraordinarily stupid thing, a lot of American blood will be shed on the soil of Iran."
Will Schryver
@imetatronink
jebte ako ovako u RL fakat razmisljate onda 
an amphibious / airborne insertion in the vicinity of Chabahar on Iran's far southern coast
