#62301 Re: Ukrajina
Posted: 12/03/2022 07:46
Evo i tog toma kupera ko voli nek cita.
Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review for the last 24-36 hours (10 Mar 22).
Because some are complaining my reports are biased in favour of Ukraine, today I'll try to add - and comment - more claims from Russia and its allies, than usually. To me, this is actually absurd - for I'm all the time using Russian sources, which is why some of my commentaries are as full of sarcasm and irony: after all, nobody's bitching more about 'corrupt Shoygu' and 'incompetent Gerasimov's favourties' these days - but veteran Russian military officers. But well... you wanted it, here you have it.
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
STRATEGIC
I forgot to mention this in my report yesterday: two days ago, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have publicly admitted a poor preparation of the ‘military operation’ in Ukraine and that conscripts – entirely unprepared for combat operations – were involved, too. This caused a very, very, very harsh reaction from the Fool in Kremlin: how could his own army dare violating his own laws? The man who fears NO ‘NATO’ and ‘Ukrainazis’, does fear Russian mothers, though, and thus he demonstratively – and energetically – ordered an immediate withdrawal of all conscripts form the wa…erm… zone of the special operation (in Ukraine). After all, even apes in the zoo of Kyiv know: Vladimir Putin simply can’t be wrong, or responsible for anything that goes wrong in the Russian Federation….
AIR
After claiming to have shot down two Ukrainian MiG-29s and one Su-27, on 8 March, and then to have destroyed a total of 124 Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters, and 84 UAVs by 9 March, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed yesterday that 90% of Ukrainian military airfields and the main body of the Ukrainian ‘combat aviation’ have been destroyed. Hm, the People in the Need of Fresh Air (the Pentagon) seems to be of entirely different opinion: they claim 90% of the Ukrainian Air Force remains intact.
This is very likely to include Bayraktar TB.2s, then even if the MOD in Kyiv is hardly ever releasing any related videos, there’s meanwhile little doubt that these are deployed ‘even’ for close-air-support operations: i.e. seem they have depleted the air defences of forward RFA units to a degree where they can operate relatively freely….or the situation for the Ukrainians is far more critical than they would ever admit, or is known in the public…?
Certain is only that the Ukrainians lost another Su-25: ‘Blue 31’ was shot down yesterday afternoon.
The VKS lost two additional jets, too: a Su-30 or Su-34 that suffered an unknown type of combat damage over Ukraine, crashed inside Belarus while attempting to reach the Luninets AB. The crew of two ejected safely. A Su-25 of the 18th ShAP was shot down by a MANPAD over the Chernihivka village, in the Zhitomir area. (Pay attention at an increasing number of air strikes in this area.)
In turn, the Russian warships fired several cruise missiles off the coast of Odessa – prompting locals to report shelling of their city. Actually, the missiles have targeted the Krivoy Rog AB.
Finally, late in the night, an ‘unidentified flying object’ crashed in southern Zagreb, capitol of Croatia: this might have been an old Tupolev Tu-141 target drone launched by Ukraine. Think, NATO might want to check how can it happen a flying object like this one not only enters its airspace (probably over Hungary) and then crosses another border without being intercepted….ah yes…. Orban is Vladimir’s friend, right after Schröder (who, BTW, was supposedly in Moscow, yesterday evening), his best mate Erdogan, and then such like Schüssel, Guzenbauer etc., etc., etc...
NORTH
Thanks to Talon Herbison’s help, we have – finally – found the 76th VDV Division. That is: one of its elements. A train carrying BMD-4s of its 104th VDV Regiment of the 76th VDV Division, was captured on a video while passing Gomel (see attached photo), in the south-eastern corner of Belarus, back on 8 March. Another, more recent video (see here: is shown a column of VDV vehicles travelling down a road through a forest, followed by some of the Rosgvardia….
I assume that this means the 76th VDV is underway to Kyiv.
Why’s that important?
This is as important because that division is considered the ‘crème de la crème’ – the ultimate ‘crack-elite-super-turbo’ unit – of the RFA.
…and because so far the Keystone Cops in Moscow have followed their doctrine so dogmatically to the last dot and comma that, as discussed earlier, one can predict their next moves based on their textbooks – nicely dissected even in good technothrillers from nearly 40 years ago. Along that doctrine, commanders in the West OSK are first supposed to tie down the enemy wherever they only can, i.e. attack along a ‘broad’ frontline (like they’re doing, or at least try to do, for the last 8-9 days), before delivering the klix-, main-, or fatal blow – at a point known in military jargon as the ‘Schwerpunkt’ (literally: ‘centroid’ in German): the focus of the entire operation (in this case the invasion of Ukraine).
If the 76th VDV Division is heading for Kyiv, then the Russian Schwerpunkt will be Kyiv, after all. I.e. they’re certainly going to do their utmost to at least encircle and besiege the city, if not assault it, too.
The only question now is: is the 76th VDV Division going to e assigned to the luckless 35th or the useless 41st CAA – i.e. deployed west, or east of Dnepr, respectively….? I’m only sure we’re going to find out before we would like to know…
Ah yes; and German-supplied Panzerfaust-3 was seen in action in the Kyiv area for the first time, yesterday.
NORTH EAST
A local Ukrainian counterattack in the Chernihiv area collected a total of at least two T-80Us of the 90th TD, yesterday (see the third attached photo). Considering the ‘efficiency’ the 41st CAA has demonstrated so far – this is nothing new. The Ukrainian-held pockets in the city, and the one further south, in the Nizhyn area, are both holding, and this despite near-constant aerial- and artillery-bombardment, and ground attacks by the 55th and 74th MRB of the 41st CAA, and some 6-7 BTGs of the 2nd CAA.
Further south, the famed 2nd GMRD – Tamanskaya – even managed to secure Pryluky, while the 27th GMRB secured Romny. Ukrainian units that used to be there seem to have withdrawn in south-eastern direction on time.
That said, the forward elements of the 2nd GTA – including at least 6, possibly up to 12 BTGs – spent the day yesterday pushing into the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. Considering there were no related panicky reports of the Western media from the Ukrainian capitol, I would say: without success. Indeed, word is the local Russian commander eventually tried to punch through by bringing an additional BTG from his reserve, the 55th MRD into the game.
Considering the road from Kyiv to Poltava was still free, yesterday evening, I guess there still must be quite a lots of Ukrainian troops in between the 2nd GTA and the Dnepr River. That said, there is now absolutely no doubt that Ukraine has some very ugly days ahead.
This is also obvious from… oh wow: looks like the 1st GTA has, actually & finally, found its nose and its tail. Late in the afternoon of 9 March, elements of 2-3 BTGs of the 47th GTD and the 4th GTD have managed to either punch through or find a way in between positions of the Ukrainian 93rd Mech Brigade in Lebedyn and Okhtyka, and promptly rushed in south-western direction. Hard to believe this after their miserable performance of the last two weeks, but one of 4th GTD’s columns even found a way directly towards the south, thus beginning the envelopment of the northern flank of defences of Kharkiv. Unless the Ukrainians find the way (and troops) to stop this, the Russians could reach even Poltava today. Hope, the Ukrainians have spent the last two weeks building-up defences there.
Further east: ‘somebody’ launched a nocturnal attack on the town of Dergachi, mid-way between Kharkiv and the border to Russia. Considering the same was under Russian control, and the biggest fans of Russia in the West and Latin America are reporting about this attack – although not mentioning its outcome – seems, the Ukrainian 92nd Mech was, once again….erm… ‘unkind’ to the battered BTG 200th MRB.
That said, east… actually, meanwhile south-east of Kharkiv – even the 144th MRD of the 6th CA is now operating as one could expect from it, and has managed to push in southern direction. Its attack on Chuhiv from the east was repelled, but after securing Balaklilisk/Balakliya, a day before, it reached Husarivka, yesterday. With other words, the situation in the Izyum area is becoming critical for the Ukrainian units still holding the LOC in the East.
EAST
According to the Separatists (quote), ‘soldiers of the 53rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Army have voluntarily laid down their arms and crossed over to the side of the Donetsk People’s Republic’…. And that in the Volnovakha area. Erm… by side that it appears that the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), can’t decide if it is what it claims to be, or if it is the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR): but, sorry, I am not going to buy this without seeing some evidence. Foremost, considering that since some 2-3 days the RUMINT has it that the Russians are summarily executing prisoners of war all over eastern Ukraine: I doubt anybody there on the Ukrainian side might now come to the idea to surrender, or ‘voluntarily lay down his/her arms’.
Actually, the Russians are still attacking Severodonetsk and Rubizhne: the 53rd avoided being encircled by ‘shortening its frontline’, i.e. withdrawing, and is holding both places (this even along Russian reports). The rest of the LOC was – relatively – quiet, but the Russians continued pounding Mariupol from the air and by artillery, the whole day.
SOUTH
It turns out the last attack of the 58th CAA on Mikolayiv, three days ago, wasn’t entirely fruitless: latest reports are indicating that they’re holding the northern districts of the city. North of that city, the ‘Ukrainian defenders’ – might mean their 17th Tank Brigade, which nobody can find – should have established a frontline in South Buzhany. The 49th CAA is now seriously pushing in northern direction: yesterday its 42nd GMRD reached the outskirts of Zaporozhye on the Dnepr in the west, and the Gulyaipole in the east.
Ah yes, and the FSB is already sorting out Ukrainians ‘resisting the liberation’ in Kherson: over 400 were arrested the last few days. Others are offered Russian passports – except they are journalists: these are forced to spread Putin’s disinformation, or announce a distribution of humanitarian aid. According to Kremlin, 108 convoys with humanitarian aid should have reached Ukraine, by now.
The FSB is sorting out itself, too: its people are actively selling their apartments in the Crimea in the Russian press. One is left to wonder why…
Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review for the last 24-36 hours (10 Mar 22).
Because some are complaining my reports are biased in favour of Ukraine, today I'll try to add - and comment - more claims from Russia and its allies, than usually. To me, this is actually absurd - for I'm all the time using Russian sources, which is why some of my commentaries are as full of sarcasm and irony: after all, nobody's bitching more about 'corrupt Shoygu' and 'incompetent Gerasimov's favourties' these days - but veteran Russian military officers. But well... you wanted it, here you have it.
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade (throw a G in the front if Guards)
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division (ditto for the G for Guards). Majority of the Russian Ground Forces are Motorized Rifle (i.e. Mechanized Infantry with supporting tanks)
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
STRATEGIC
I forgot to mention this in my report yesterday: two days ago, the Keystone Cops in Moscow have publicly admitted a poor preparation of the ‘military operation’ in Ukraine and that conscripts – entirely unprepared for combat operations – were involved, too. This caused a very, very, very harsh reaction from the Fool in Kremlin: how could his own army dare violating his own laws? The man who fears NO ‘NATO’ and ‘Ukrainazis’, does fear Russian mothers, though, and thus he demonstratively – and energetically – ordered an immediate withdrawal of all conscripts form the wa…erm… zone of the special operation (in Ukraine). After all, even apes in the zoo of Kyiv know: Vladimir Putin simply can’t be wrong, or responsible for anything that goes wrong in the Russian Federation….
AIR
After claiming to have shot down two Ukrainian MiG-29s and one Su-27, on 8 March, and then to have destroyed a total of 124 Ukrainian aircraft and helicopters, and 84 UAVs by 9 March, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed yesterday that 90% of Ukrainian military airfields and the main body of the Ukrainian ‘combat aviation’ have been destroyed. Hm, the People in the Need of Fresh Air (the Pentagon) seems to be of entirely different opinion: they claim 90% of the Ukrainian Air Force remains intact.
This is very likely to include Bayraktar TB.2s, then even if the MOD in Kyiv is hardly ever releasing any related videos, there’s meanwhile little doubt that these are deployed ‘even’ for close-air-support operations: i.e. seem they have depleted the air defences of forward RFA units to a degree where they can operate relatively freely….or the situation for the Ukrainians is far more critical than they would ever admit, or is known in the public…?
Certain is only that the Ukrainians lost another Su-25: ‘Blue 31’ was shot down yesterday afternoon.
The VKS lost two additional jets, too: a Su-30 or Su-34 that suffered an unknown type of combat damage over Ukraine, crashed inside Belarus while attempting to reach the Luninets AB. The crew of two ejected safely. A Su-25 of the 18th ShAP was shot down by a MANPAD over the Chernihivka village, in the Zhitomir area. (Pay attention at an increasing number of air strikes in this area.)
In turn, the Russian warships fired several cruise missiles off the coast of Odessa – prompting locals to report shelling of their city. Actually, the missiles have targeted the Krivoy Rog AB.
Finally, late in the night, an ‘unidentified flying object’ crashed in southern Zagreb, capitol of Croatia: this might have been an old Tupolev Tu-141 target drone launched by Ukraine. Think, NATO might want to check how can it happen a flying object like this one not only enters its airspace (probably over Hungary) and then crosses another border without being intercepted….ah yes…. Orban is Vladimir’s friend, right after Schröder (who, BTW, was supposedly in Moscow, yesterday evening), his best mate Erdogan, and then such like Schüssel, Guzenbauer etc., etc., etc...
NORTH
Thanks to Talon Herbison’s help, we have – finally – found the 76th VDV Division. That is: one of its elements. A train carrying BMD-4s of its 104th VDV Regiment of the 76th VDV Division, was captured on a video while passing Gomel (see attached photo), in the south-eastern corner of Belarus, back on 8 March. Another, more recent video (see here: is shown a column of VDV vehicles travelling down a road through a forest, followed by some of the Rosgvardia….
I assume that this means the 76th VDV is underway to Kyiv.
Why’s that important?
This is as important because that division is considered the ‘crème de la crème’ – the ultimate ‘crack-elite-super-turbo’ unit – of the RFA.
…and because so far the Keystone Cops in Moscow have followed their doctrine so dogmatically to the last dot and comma that, as discussed earlier, one can predict their next moves based on their textbooks – nicely dissected even in good technothrillers from nearly 40 years ago. Along that doctrine, commanders in the West OSK are first supposed to tie down the enemy wherever they only can, i.e. attack along a ‘broad’ frontline (like they’re doing, or at least try to do, for the last 8-9 days), before delivering the klix-, main-, or fatal blow – at a point known in military jargon as the ‘Schwerpunkt’ (literally: ‘centroid’ in German): the focus of the entire operation (in this case the invasion of Ukraine).
If the 76th VDV Division is heading for Kyiv, then the Russian Schwerpunkt will be Kyiv, after all. I.e. they’re certainly going to do their utmost to at least encircle and besiege the city, if not assault it, too.
The only question now is: is the 76th VDV Division going to e assigned to the luckless 35th or the useless 41st CAA – i.e. deployed west, or east of Dnepr, respectively….? I’m only sure we’re going to find out before we would like to know…
Ah yes; and German-supplied Panzerfaust-3 was seen in action in the Kyiv area for the first time, yesterday.
NORTH EAST
A local Ukrainian counterattack in the Chernihiv area collected a total of at least two T-80Us of the 90th TD, yesterday (see the third attached photo). Considering the ‘efficiency’ the 41st CAA has demonstrated so far – this is nothing new. The Ukrainian-held pockets in the city, and the one further south, in the Nizhyn area, are both holding, and this despite near-constant aerial- and artillery-bombardment, and ground attacks by the 55th and 74th MRB of the 41st CAA, and some 6-7 BTGs of the 2nd CAA.
Further south, the famed 2nd GMRD – Tamanskaya – even managed to secure Pryluky, while the 27th GMRB secured Romny. Ukrainian units that used to be there seem to have withdrawn in south-eastern direction on time.
That said, the forward elements of the 2nd GTA – including at least 6, possibly up to 12 BTGs – spent the day yesterday pushing into the eastern outskirts of Kyiv. Considering there were no related panicky reports of the Western media from the Ukrainian capitol, I would say: without success. Indeed, word is the local Russian commander eventually tried to punch through by bringing an additional BTG from his reserve, the 55th MRD into the game.
Considering the road from Kyiv to Poltava was still free, yesterday evening, I guess there still must be quite a lots of Ukrainian troops in between the 2nd GTA and the Dnepr River. That said, there is now absolutely no doubt that Ukraine has some very ugly days ahead.
This is also obvious from… oh wow: looks like the 1st GTA has, actually & finally, found its nose and its tail. Late in the afternoon of 9 March, elements of 2-3 BTGs of the 47th GTD and the 4th GTD have managed to either punch through or find a way in between positions of the Ukrainian 93rd Mech Brigade in Lebedyn and Okhtyka, and promptly rushed in south-western direction. Hard to believe this after their miserable performance of the last two weeks, but one of 4th GTD’s columns even found a way directly towards the south, thus beginning the envelopment of the northern flank of defences of Kharkiv. Unless the Ukrainians find the way (and troops) to stop this, the Russians could reach even Poltava today. Hope, the Ukrainians have spent the last two weeks building-up defences there.
Further east: ‘somebody’ launched a nocturnal attack on the town of Dergachi, mid-way between Kharkiv and the border to Russia. Considering the same was under Russian control, and the biggest fans of Russia in the West and Latin America are reporting about this attack – although not mentioning its outcome – seems, the Ukrainian 92nd Mech was, once again….erm… ‘unkind’ to the battered BTG 200th MRB.
That said, east… actually, meanwhile south-east of Kharkiv – even the 144th MRD of the 6th CA is now operating as one could expect from it, and has managed to push in southern direction. Its attack on Chuhiv from the east was repelled, but after securing Balaklilisk/Balakliya, a day before, it reached Husarivka, yesterday. With other words, the situation in the Izyum area is becoming critical for the Ukrainian units still holding the LOC in the East.
EAST
According to the Separatists (quote), ‘soldiers of the 53rd Brigade of the Ukrainian Army have voluntarily laid down their arms and crossed over to the side of the Donetsk People’s Republic’…. And that in the Volnovakha area. Erm… by side that it appears that the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR), can’t decide if it is what it claims to be, or if it is the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR): but, sorry, I am not going to buy this without seeing some evidence. Foremost, considering that since some 2-3 days the RUMINT has it that the Russians are summarily executing prisoners of war all over eastern Ukraine: I doubt anybody there on the Ukrainian side might now come to the idea to surrender, or ‘voluntarily lay down his/her arms’.
Actually, the Russians are still attacking Severodonetsk and Rubizhne: the 53rd avoided being encircled by ‘shortening its frontline’, i.e. withdrawing, and is holding both places (this even along Russian reports). The rest of the LOC was – relatively – quiet, but the Russians continued pounding Mariupol from the air and by artillery, the whole day.
SOUTH
It turns out the last attack of the 58th CAA on Mikolayiv, three days ago, wasn’t entirely fruitless: latest reports are indicating that they’re holding the northern districts of the city. North of that city, the ‘Ukrainian defenders’ – might mean their 17th Tank Brigade, which nobody can find – should have established a frontline in South Buzhany. The 49th CAA is now seriously pushing in northern direction: yesterday its 42nd GMRD reached the outskirts of Zaporozhye on the Dnepr in the west, and the Gulyaipole in the east.
Ah yes, and the FSB is already sorting out Ukrainians ‘resisting the liberation’ in Kherson: over 400 were arrested the last few days. Others are offered Russian passports – except they are journalists: these are forced to spread Putin’s disinformation, or announce a distribution of humanitarian aid. According to Kremlin, 108 convoys with humanitarian aid should have reached Ukraine, by now.
The FSB is sorting out itself, too: its people are actively selling their apartments in the Crimea in the Russian press. One is left to wonder why…
