Dali ce rat u Siriji biti kraj ili ozbiljno oslabljivanje Hezbolaha?
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/31/opini ... .html?_r=1&
“THE conventional army loses if it does not win. The guerrilla wins if he does not lose.” Henry Kissinger’s observation, made during the Vietnam War, should be haunting Hezbollah, the Middle East’s most capable guerrilla force, as it becomes embroiled in an increasingly costly effort to save the Assad regime.
Reports indicate that Hezbollah recently expanded its actions in Syria to include its most valued resource — its highly trained and strategically irreplaceable special forces units. Hezbollah’s secretive military wing is reportedly composed of 2,000 to 4,000 professional soldiers and thousands of reservists hailing from Shiite villages south of the Litani river and the Bekaa Valley, meant to be called into action to repel a future Israeli invasion. During the 2006 conflict with Israel, the loss of roughly one quarter of Hezbollah’s special forces was assumed to constitute the group’s most severe setback.
Varying reports from Syria suggest that the direct participation of these special forces units in combat zones nationwide has increased, and additional forces may be on the way. Secret contingency plans reportedly agreed upon at the highest levels of the Syrian government and Hezbollah indicate that Hezbollah had reportedly agreed to commit thousands of its most elite soldiers to defend the Assad regime, either from a “foreign invasion” or in the event that “urgent assistance” was needed.
With Syrian rebels consolidating their gains in outlying areas of Aleppo and Damascus, there are indications that Nasrallah has already begun to make good on his pledge. Earlier this month, a Saudi newspaper reported that four Hezbollah units, each consisting of 1,300 fighters, had been dispatched to assist the Syrian military in major cities, while the group’s elite 901 commando unit has reportedly been fighting in the Homs area since July. Most recently, Hezbollah’s reported deployments near Syrian chemical weapons facilities has spurred the Israeli government to threaten military intervention as a response to any potential attempt to transfer those weapons into Hezbollah bunkers in Lebanon.
Hezbollah’s arsenal of nearly 70,000 rockets will likely remain pointed at the Israelis, but the squandering of its crucial elite units in Syria could deprive Lebanon’s Shiite community of protection from emboldened sectarian rivals in the wake of Assad’s ousting. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s assisting of the Assad regime in committing atrocities will put its leaders in the crosshairs of future international criminal tribunals, in addition to those already investigating the group’s involvement in the assassination of the former Lebanon prime minister Rafik Hariri. Such negative attention may just spur the European Union to cave to U.S. pressure to place Hezbollah on its list of terror organizations, risking further isolation of the group’s political wing.
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Da budemo iskreni ali od svih organizacija koji su neprijatelji Izraela, Hezbolah je najbolje organizovana, profesionalna, disciplinirana i trenirana.
Plus im teren ide na ruku za razliku od Palestinaca n.p.r.
Veliki gubitci u Siriji i pojacavanje verskih tenzija sa drugim grupama mi lici na veliko zlo za Liban kada klanica u Siriji zavrsi.