Novi korona virus - velika opasnost ili ne ? POGLEDATI PRVI POST!

[GandalfSivi]

I opet, real life numbers...



Da ti prevedem, prije vakcinacije je svaki dan umiralo skoro tri puta vise ljudi nego sto je sveukupno umrlo vakcinisanih za pola godine...

To bi mogo pricati da je vakcina bila uporedo sa prvim i drugim valom. Pa da imas vakcinisane i nevakcinisane. Ovdje vec virus dva puta orosao kroz populaciju.

Evo, kod nas na prste izbrojati broj oboljelih. A vidjet cemo sta ce se desavati s povecanjem broja vakcinisanih.

Nije problem majstore, jucer umrlo 559 ljudi u Americi, sto hoce da kaze da za dva dana umre ljudi kao sto je sve ukupno umrlo vakcinisanih...

[_BataZiv_0809]

Sto je veci broj vakcinisanih bit ce veci broj i zarazenih koji su vakcinisani.

[GandalfSivi]

Sto je veci broj vakcinisanih bit ce veci broj i zarazenih koji su vakcinisani.

Igrac koji puca daje gol. Igrac koji ne puca ne daje gol

[_BataZiv_0809]

Sto je veci broj vakcinisanih bit ce veci broj i zarazenih koji su vakcinisani.

Igrac koji puca daje gol. Igrac koji ne puca ne daje gol

Ma mislim stvarno vise pobogu....

[Bloo]

https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... re-failing

Breakthrough rates can increase if the vaccinated population is small and there are high case counts in the community. Conversely, high vaccine uptake means that the vaccinated population makes up a larger proportion of overall cases. If almost everyone is vaccinated, any cases that do occur are likelier to be in someone who’s immunized. That was the situation in an outbreak in Massachusetts in which 74 percent of people testing positive were vaccinated in a region where some 69 percent of eligible residents had received shots.

Other factors contribute to an overrepresentation of vaccinated patients with breakthrough infections, including age and health conditions associated with a weakened immune system. Often, the level of immunity for these patients produces a blunted response to the vaccine, so they may be at a higher risk than younger unaffected people who are not immunized.

Similar to those that are routinely administered for pertussis, booster shots for COVID may be needed for people with a suppressed immune system or for gradually waning immunity. Talaat points to reports of good responses to a third COVID vaccine dose in patients who had an organ transplant. France and Israel have already added a recommended third dose for some immunocompromised recipients, and the U.K. is considering doing so. The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices met on July 22 to review data related to booster shots in people who are immunocompromised and concluded that a third dose might be in order for this patient population.

[red evil]

Sto je veci broj vakcinisanih bit ce veci broj i zarazenih koji su vakcinisani.

U Africi najviše umiru crnci, ima tu nešto.

[Bloo]

Zasto mijesas teme?

Sta bolan mijesam, kratko i jasno pitanje, smije li doktor napisati da ti je dao vakcinu ako nije?

Pa salih nam dolazi iz stare doktorske porodice,tako da mozemo pretpostaviti da ce mozda neko iz halke pogurati.

[daddy-kool]

Bob Wachter
@Bob_Wachter
Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine

[skafiskafsnjak]

[Dead Man Walking]

Haha jeste levati, pa nije ni ovaj doktor vakcinisan, nego je “vakcinisan ” tako da ne cude mjere opreza. Sad je meni sve jasnije nakon sto je salik objasnio kako to hoda kod doktora.

[daddy-kool]

Od istog lika sa tweetera

To me, the most confusing time in the pandemic was May 2020, as we exited lockdown and nobody quite knew what they should & shouldn’t do (clean the mail? touch the dog?). But now is giving May 2020 a run for its money. (Thread1/25)

Today, a smorgasbord of some of the most confusing issues: Delta, masking, vaccine efficacy, vax mandates, boosters. Bottom line is that my thinking has changed. Six months ago, I felt like I understood all of the key variables when it came to the virus & vaccines. And… (2/25)

…when I learned that a variable had changed w/ Delta, I assumed nothing else had. But now I see that it’s best to assume that nearly every parameter is different – usually for the worse. That creates cognitive vertigo, but it matches the facts on the ground. (see below.)(3/25)



This superb thread



by @EpiEllie walks us through the math behind Delta’s threat. With a virus that’s 2.5 times more infectious, levels of immunity that would have tamped down the spread of the old virus are no longer adequate to do so with Delta. (4/25)

Exhibit A: SF. 70% of the population is fully vaccinated, yet cases are 20x what they were in June (Fig). And with more virus around, there’s more exposure to virus, & so it spirals up. Things are even worse in places w/ lower vaccine rates, such as in the great states of…(5/25)

… FL (49% fully vaxxed), TX (44%), & MO (42%)(Fig). In these states, most people are no better protected vs Covid than they were in early 2020. But the virus is 2.5x better at its job of infecting people. Moreover, CDC now feels that Delta Covid cases are more serious too.(6/25)

Nothing stands in isolation. Here in highly vaxxed SF, everybody’s wearing masks – we’re bummed but there’s little pushback. In states where vaccine rates are low & vulnerability is enormous, many leaders & people “don’t believe” in masks. And often in vaccines. Go figure. (7/25)

That's why I’m all for vaccine mandates. As Einstein (may have) said, “Insanity is doing the same thing over & over & expecting a different result.” We’ve tried education, free vax, sympathy, shaming, & incentives. Our future depends on more vaxxing, despite the objections.(8/25)

Even if vax mandates (plus upcoming formal FDA approval https://nytimes.com/2021/08/03/us/polit ... roval.html) turn the tide, it’ll be months before we get to high enough vaccine rates to tamp down the virus. Until then, anything other than universal indoor masking is simply bonkers. (9/25)

Speaking of being unprotected, the next battleground will be over boosters. So much of Covid has pitted individual rights/choices vs. community need. There now seems little doubt that 4 groups will need boosters to deal w/ waning or inadequate immunity from vaccines:... (10/25)

a) Immunocompromised; b) Elders (?age); c) vax w/ J&J; & d) vaxxed >6 mths ago. My read of evidence: it would be reasonable to offer boosters to all 4 groups today – if the only issue was risks vs benefits to them as individuals. But as
@EpiEllie explained, as a society… (11/25)

… we should focus on vaxxing unvaxxed people (vs giving booster) if resources were limited. But, at least in the U.S., they’re not – there’s so much vaccine around that some is being discarded https://nytimes.com/2021/08/01/us/covid ... asted.html (Of course, if we could sort out the logistics, the… (12/25)

… next dose should really go to Africa or India, but that seems unlikely). Given the probable benefit for individuals, not surprised we’re starting to see booster-seeking fibbing & wink-winking. This’ll screw up vaccine tracking, which is bad. Is it unethical? Tough call.(13/25)

Solution: approve boosters for those 4 groups ASAP as long as vax surplus holds (evidence seems persuasive that benefits outweigh risks), as several European countries have done. https://washingtonpost.com/world/europe ... story.html My guess is that FDA/CDC are also hesitating on boosters because… (14/25)

… they fear that green-lighting them will send message to some vax-hesitant folks that vaccines don’t work. I get that, but these kind of Covid mind games (other: call breakthrough infections “rare” so as not to discourage vax) don’t work & serve to undermine credibility.(15/25)

I’m aware that this entire thread has been a major downer. Believe me, I wanted to get back to normal as much as you do. One bright piece of news amidst the gloom is that – for reasons clear to no one – Delta appears to peak and fall quickly (here is the UK curve)…, (16/25)

… and perhaps it’ll do the same in the U.S. Great! But to the degree that vaccine or infection-related immunity partly explains the peak-and-fall, we might well see another surge in a few months, whether from waning immunity, a new & nastier variant, or some combination.(17/25)

Is there a way out? Delta is so infectious that the end-game may be near-universal immunity thru vaccination & – mostly in the unvaxxed – infection. The # of deaths in the latter category will be high; truly tragic since – unlike in 2020 – most will have been preventable. (18/25)

It’s obvious what an unvaccinated person should do: get vaccinated ASAP, and stay super-safe until fully vaxxed (remember, shot #1 doesn't protect against Delta the way it used to). Particularly in a high case prevalence region, your chance of catching the virus has… (19/25)

… never been higher, and – while treatments have improved – there’s still a decent chance of a stormy course, including Long Covid, hospitalization, and (depending on your risk factors) death. I’d be afraid. Yes, I'd be very afraid. (20/25)

What should a vaccinated person do? That’s trickier. Everybody’s got to choose their own risk tolerance, which'll depend on your psychological state & your risk factors for a bad outcome. It should also be influenced by local prevalence – your chances of a breakthrough...(21/25)

…infection are much higher if you’re in a place with a high case rate than if you’re in Vermont. And as I’ve said, even though the chances of me dying or being hospitalized w/ Covid are low, they’re not zero. And breakthrough cases of Delta, we now know, can potentially…(22/25)

… be spread to others – mostly unvaccinated (including kids <12) or less well protected people (elderly, immunocompromised). They can also be spread to vaccinated folks (though vaxed-to-vaxed spread likely is truly "rare"). That knowledge has added to my level of caution.(23/25)

As a 63-year-old guy vaxxed w/ Pfizer in Dec-Jan, no booster yet, & living in still-fairly-low prevalence SF, what am I doing? I haven’t cancelled flights, though I will if trip's elective. When I fly, I’m wearing N95 for the whole flight. In indoor spaces (stores, work)…(24/25)

... I’m double masking (cloth/surgical). No more indoor dining, & sadly no more poker w/ vaxxed pals. I’ll peel off protections as cases fall, particularly after my booster.

You’ll make your own choices, but don’t underestimate Delta. As the CDC said, it’s a new war. (25/25)

[GandalfSivi]

Jedina stvar koju nije stavio je smrtnost, a ja mislim da je puno, puno manja sa Deltom...

[JohnnyS]

Bob Wachter
@Bob_Wachter
Chair, UCSF Dept of Medicine

Strah me je pomisliti što bi ovaj radio da je pandemija ebole

[Challenger_]

Prije bih rekao da ni oni sami više ne znaju šta i kako dalje pa vuku ovakve poteze.

Evidentno. Sindrom Fadil Novalić je postao globalni fenomen.

[daddy-kool]

Jedina stvar koju nije stavio je smrtnost, a ja mislim da je puno, puno manja sa Deltom...

Vakcine to obaraju na (vjerovatno) nivo smrtnosti od gripe.

[GandalfSivi]

Jedina stvar koju nije stavio je smrtnost, a ja mislim da je puno, puno manja sa Deltom...

Vakcine to obaraju na (vjerovatno) nivo smrtnosti od gripe.

Znam, a i zvanicni brojevi su daleko, ali opet kontam, poharalo bi Indiju da je bio isti level kao i originalni...

[daddy-kool]

Vakcine to obaraju na (vjerovatno) nivo smrtnosti od gripe.

Znam, a i zvanicni brojevi su daleko, ali opet kontam, poharalo bi Indiju da je bio isti level kao i originalni...

Indiju i jeste poharalo, UK je dobar pokazatelj djelovanja vakcina.

[GandalfSivi]

Znam, a i zvanicni brojevi su daleko, ali opet kontam, poharalo bi Indiju da je bio isti level kao i originalni...

Indiju i jeste poharalo, UK je dobar pokazatelj djelovanja vakcina.

Nikada mi necemo znati ni koliko ih je obolilo ni koliko umrlo u Indiji. Jednom kada to udje u slums, tu ni doktora ni kontrole ni pogrebnika nema. Citam da je minimalno pola stanovnistva u Mumbai slums imalo Covid, bog dragi ne zna koliko je ukupno. Ja pretpostavljam da je sama Indija imala veci broj od ukupnoh zvanicnog broja za cijeli svijet (200 miliona)...

[konektovan]

Šta je sa Izraelom, ne stoje bas najbolje izgleda?!

[spinel_]

Zesci fail

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMdwn6GCV/

[Trappist]

"NSW je potvrdio 319 novih lokalnih slučajeva koronavirusa, najviše od početka pandemije. U Sydneyju i susjednim regionalnim centrima već je šest tjedana na snazi uredba da se ostane kod kuće.

U NSW-u je hospitalizirano 345 osoba, 56 ih je na intenzivnoj njezi, a 23 na respiratoru, objavile su državne vlasti.

Susjedna država Victoria bilježi najveći skok zaraza u 2021. godini s 29 novih slučajeva. U Victoriji je ranije ovog tjedna stupio na snagu lockdown od tjedan dana. "

Ma iduce dvije sedmice lockdowna su kljucne

[hladan.preminger]

Znam, a i zvanicni brojevi su daleko, ali opet kontam, poharalo bi Indiju da je bio isti level kao i originalni...

Indiju i jeste poharalo, UK je dobar pokazatelj djelovanja vakcina.

Šta je Indiju poharalo sunce ti ljubim? Zemlju od 1.5 milijardi stanovnika, koji žive u nehigijenskim uvjetima i pitaj boga kakvim zdravstvenim sistemom.

Koji vam je qrac više sa širenjem laži i sijanjem straha.

Zemlja je proporcionalno imala manji broj inficiranih od Hrvatske.
Koje se ovdje laži i nebuloze plasiraju to je za ne povjerovati.

[Naslovnica]

Zesci fail

https://vm.tiktok.com/ZMdwn6GCV/

Nije žešći fail, barem što se tiče stope smrtnosti.
A da su svašta nešto obećavali, a na kraju nije ispalo baš tako, to je apsolutno istina.

[Humljanin]

Prije bih rekao da ni oni sami više ne znaju šta i kako dalje pa vuku ovakve poteze.

Evidentno. Sindrom Fadil Novalić je postao globalni fenomen.

[biglebovski]

Indiju i jeste poharalo, UK je dobar pokazatelj djelovanja vakcina.

Šta je Indiju poharalo sunce ti ljubim? Zemlju od 1.5 milijardi stanovnika, koji žive u nehigijenskim uvjetima i pitaj boga kakvim zdravstvenim sistemom.

Koji vam je qrac više sa širenjem laži i sijanjem straha.

Zemlja je proporcionalno imala manji broj inficiranih od Hrvatske.
Koje se ovdje laži i nebuloze plasiraju to je za ne povjerovati.

Tamo više niko ne živ
Ulice Kalkute su sablasno praz
Dječije stopice se ne čuju po sokacima Mumba
Preživjeli bengalski tigrovi i svete krave
Tumaraju tuž bulevarima Bangalorea
a svete rijeke Ganges & Brahmaputra otuž teku
u zalazak hrabrog potkontinenta

ref. x2

Corono corono poharala si,
O Corono Corono
Indijski potkontinent,
O Corono x3
O Indijo zemljo poharana X2