Real Madrid at Barcelona: The Final Clásico
Notable UEFA Official Statistics
• Before the first leg Madrid had not conceded at home in the 2010/11 UEFA Champions League. They have kept eight clean sheets in 11 games this season, surpassing their previous record of seven achieved in 1997/98 and 2001/02 – they won the title on both occasions.
• Madrid have had more shots on target (85) and wide (86) and won more corners (68) than any other semi-finalist.
• Mesut Özil has claimed six assists; more than any other player.
• Ronaldo has had 29 shots wide, more than any other player. He has also suffered 25 fouls, the joint highest total along with Wesley Sneijder.
• Barcelona are the competition's highest scorers with 26 goals. They have been caught offside more than any other semi-finalist (41 times), but committed fewest fouls (127).
• Lionel Messi is the competition's top scorer with 11 goals and has had more shots on target than anyone (28). He is also Barça's all-time leading UEFA Champions League goalscorer with 36 in 55 games, overtaking Rivaldo (25 in 45) on Matchday 1.
• Daniel Alves has committed 24 fouls, the joint highest total for players still involved along with Lassana Diarra.
A Brief Synopsis
The final Clásico of the season is scheduled for Tuesday night in Barcelona. A heated series of matches between the 2 richest clubs in Spain have dwindled down to 1 final fixture: Real Madrid at Barcelona at the Camp Nou. In Tuesday’s semi-final 2nd leg, Barcelona aim to capitalize on the 2 goal advantage gained during the 1st leg in Madrid. Lionel Messi scored twice against a 10-man Real Madrid after Pepe was sent off for a controversial straight red card for his studs up challenge on Barcelona’s Dani Alves ( Messi’s 2nd was brilliant, but Pepe would have likely broken this up). Despite the last 3 matches not always displaying the most pleasing football to watch, the drama on the pitch and the pressrooms has been nothing short of spectacular.
The final Clásico is Barcelona’s opportunity to move within one step of reclaiming the throne at the top of club football. Unless Jose Mourinho can overcome a 2 goal deficit at the Camp Nou, Barcelona will ascend to the Champions League final in London’s Wembley Stadium on the 28th of May. Can Jose use his Special powers to thwart a likely Barcelona v Manchester United matchup?
Yes, he can. Jose Mourinho has plenty of attacking talent. He has Argentina's first-choice winger (Angel Di Maria), Portugal’s most talented attacking footballer…ever (Cristiano Ronaldo), Argentina’s first choice striker (Gonzalo Higuain), Togolese and former Arsenal front man Emmanuel Adebayor, Germany’s primary playmaker (Mesut Ozil), and Brazil’s primary playmaker in last summer’s World Cup (Kaka). Mourinho certainly has the attacking talent to score 2 goals against any team in the world, but will he do it against Barcelona?
No, he most likely will not. When Jose Mourinho’s Real Madrid lost 5-0 in Barcelona’s greatest performance of the season (and perhaps, as perfect a match as I’ve ever seen 1 side play), Jose decided Barcelona must be defended first and attacked when the rare opportunity presents itself. Accordingly, the last 3 Real Madrid sides that have lined up against Barcelona have all featured 7 defensive-minded players and only 3 of the attackers mentioned above. During the last 3 Clásicos, Cristaino Ronaldo, Mesut Ozil, and Angel Di Maria have featured as the 3 attackers, leaving all the remaining aforementioned talents to serve as spectators and substitutes. That probably will not change during the 1st half of Tuesday night's contest because Mourinho can never allow another demolition like 5-0 to Barcelona. If it is the Champions League, Jose Mourinho always has a chance.
When was the last time Barcelona lost 2-0 at home?
Barcelona lost 2-0 in their home opener in the Spanish Primera Liga to Hercules led by Nelson Haedo Valdez and David Trezeguet. Not surprisingly, Hercules played on the counter and only maintained 23% possession of the ball. Also, Hercules were out-shot 17-9 bus still managed to score twice. Juan Calatyud had a tremendous day in goal for Hercules with 9 saves en route to a clean sheet. That was Barcelona’s only loss at the Camp Nou this season.
If Real manage a comeback, don’t be surprised to see a similar set of post match statistics. Real Madrid will lose the possession, and Iker Casillas will need to put in a super human performance to keep Barcelona from scoring at the Camp Nou.
Messi v Ronaldo: Final Results
AccuScore calculated that Lionel Messi had nearly a 50% probability of scoring, meaning that Messi scored in nearly 5,000 of the 10,000 matches AccuScore’s Super Computer simulated based solely on detailed historical statistics. Cristiano Ronaldo was the 2nd most likely scorer on Tuesday, but the Portuguese striker only scored in 30% of simulations.
Messi led Barcelona from the front, and AccuScore only calculated a 21% probability of a Real Madrid victory. Further, only 7.5% of the 10,000 simulations resulted in Real Madrid winning by 2 or more goals, so Los Blancos chances of advancing are awful but not entirely impossible. With AccuScore calculating a 52% likelihood of Barcelona winning and a 27% probability of a draw, Real Madrid will need a Special performance to book a trip to England at the end of May.
Injuries and Suspensions
Barcelona’s Gabriel Milito tore a thigh muscle scoring a disallowed goal late on Saturday and is out for four weeks. Adriano and Maxwell remain sidelined, but Eric Abidal and Andres Iniesta have been included in Barcelona’s match squad. Backup keeper Jose Pinto is suspended after being sent off at half time of the 1st leg.
Earlier this week, Real Madrid’s appeal to have Pepe’s ban lifted was dismissed, and the Portuguese defender is suspended for Tuesday’s contest. Sergio Ramos, also banned, will join Pepe in the stands. Sami Khedira has been out of the lineup since the Copa del Rey, and he was not included in Real Madrid’s match squad travelling to Barcelona
i Benz umjesto Ade.
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.....wuh baš je ludilo progresivno 
