Kako nastadosmo? Iz nicega, bog, vanzemaljci, ili...?

[KB9]

pa dokazo ti je covjek u vise navrata sve tvoje moguce propuste oko matematike al dzaba

sad ti treba dokazat da ti je vec dokazo

[sizifinho]

pa dokazo ti je covjek u vise navrata sve tvoje moguce propuste oko matematike al dzaba

sad ti treba dokazat da ti je vec dokazo

pa to je ko da krompiru objasniš zašto ga moraš pojesti..

[Dozer]

pa dokazo ti je covjek u vise navrata sve tvoje moguce propuste oko matematike al dzaba

sad ti treba dokazat da ti je vec dokazo

Ne treba mi nista dokazati. Nas dvojica smo se sporili oko rakete i depopulacije.
Bujrum - nadjite taj njegov post ili postove u kojima on matematicki dokazuje da sam ja pogrijesio u bilo kojem slucaju.

(P.S. Za raketu je odustao bez da je ista dokazao, osim sto je ponavljao da nema razloga da ne vjeruje zvanicnim izvjestajima, a za depopulaciju je na kraju i sam potvrdio da kontinuirani pad stope nataliteta dugorocno vodi depopulaciji, a sto sam ja rekao u samom startu te rasprave, pa me on ubjedjivao da nemam pojma sta je sta terminoloski ).

[Zaitsev]

Mogu ti reći drug Dozer, nedostajao si mi! Čak ti i ne zamjeram toliko što si me nazvao pudlicom. Ali eto, valjda su to tvoji načini argumentovane diskusije i debate. Nego, je l' stvarno bio toliki fazon izvrijeđati ostale u postu, tj. odgovoriti na uvrede koje su tebi upućene, pa onda ove prve prijaviti moderaciji? Meni je to nekako žalosno, vjeruj mi...

[stari_rastafari]

Reko, da provirim da vidim sta ima, nisam dugo, kad ono, ista meta isto odstojanje... Ja i dalje mislim da je umjesto rasprave kako smo nastali daleko vaznija diskusija o tome kako opstati, uzimajuci u obzir desavanja u svijetu trenutno.

History tells us what will happen next with Brexit & Trump

It seems we’re entering another of those stupid seasons humans impose on themselves at fairly regular intervals.

My background is archaeology, so also history and anthropology. It leads me to look at big historical patterns. My theory is that most peoples’ perspective of history is limited to the experience communicated by their parents and grandparents, so 50–100 years. To go beyond that you have to read, study, and learn to untangle the propaganda that is inevitable in all telling of history. In a nutshell, at university I would fail a paper if I didn’t compare at least two, if not three opposing views on a topic. Taking one telling of events as gospel doesn’t wash in the comparative analytical method of research that forms the core of British academia. (I can’t speak for other systems, but they’re definitely not all alike in this way).

So zooming out, we humans have a habit of going into phases of mass destruction, generally self imposed to some extent or another. This handy list shows all the wars over time. Wars are actually the norm for humans, but every now and then something big comes along. I am interested in the Black Death, which devastated Europe. The opening of Boccaccio’s Decameron describes Florence in the grips of the Plague. It is as beyond imagination as the Somme, Hiroshima, or the Holocaust. I mean, you quite literally can’t put yourself there and imagine what it was like. For those in the midst of the Plague it must have felt like the end of the world.

But a defining feature of humans is their resilience. To us now it seems obvious that we survived the Plague, but to people at the time it must have seemed incredible that their society continued afterwards. Indeed, many takes on the effects of the Black Death are that it had a positive impact in the long term. Well summed up here: “By targeting frail people of all ages, and killing them by the hundreds of thousands within an extremely short period of time, the Black Death might have represented a strong force of natural selection and removed the weakest individuals on a very broad scale within Europe,“ …In addition, the Black Death significantly changed the social structure of some European regions. Tragic depopulation created the shortage of working people. This shortage caused wages to rise. Products prices fell too. Consequently, standards of living increased. For instance, people started to consume more food of higher quality.”

But for the people living through it, as with the World Wars, Soviet Famines, Holocaust, it must have felt inconceivable that humans could rise up from it. The collapse of the Roman Empire, Black Death, Spanish Inquisition, Thirty Years War, War of the Roses, English Civil War… it’s a long list. Events of massive destruction from which humanity recovered and move on, often in better shape.

At a local level in time people think things are fine, then things rapidly spiral out of control until they become unstoppable, and we wreak massive destruction on ourselves. For the people living in the midst of this it is hard to see happening and hard to understand. To historians later it all makes sense and we see clearly how one thing led to another. During the Centenary of the Battle of the Somme I was struck that it was a direct outcome of the assassination of an Austrian Arch Duke in Bosnia. I very much doubt anyone at the time thought the killing of a minor European royal would lead to the death of 17 million people.

My point is that this is a cycle. It happens again and again, but as most people only have a 50–100 year historical perspective they don’t see that it’s happening again. As the events that led to the First World War unfolded, there were a few brilliant minds who started to warn that something big was wrong, that the web of treaties across Europe could lead to a war, but they were dismissed as hysterical, mad, or fools, as is always the way, and as people who worry about Putin, Brexit, and Trump are dismissed now.

Then after the War to end all Wars, we went and had another one. Again, for a historian it was quite predictable. Lead people to feel they have lost control of their country and klix, people look for scapegoats, a charismatic leader captures the popular mood, and singles out that scapegoat. He talks in rhetoric that has no detail, and drums up anger and hatred. Soon the masses start to move as one, without any logic driving their actions, and the whole becomes unstoppable.

That was Hitler, but it was also Mussolini, Stalin, Putin, Mugabe, and so many more. Mugabe is a very good case in point. He whipped up national anger and hatred towards the land owning white minority (who happened to know how to run farms), and seized their land to redistribute to the people, in a great populist move which in the end unravelled the economy and farming industry and left the people in possession of land, but starving. See also the famines created by the Soviet Union, and the one caused by the Chinese Communists last century in which 20–40 million people died. It seems inconceivable that people could create a situation in which tens of millions of people die without reason, but we do it again and again.

But at the time people don’t realise they’re embarking on a route that will lead to a destruction period. They think they’re right, they’re cheered on by jeering angry mobs, their critics are mocked. This cycle, the one we saw for example from the Treaty of Versaille, to the rise of Hitler, to the Second World War, appears to be happening again. But as with before, most people cannot see it because:

1. They are only looking at the present, not the past or future
2. They are only looking immediately around them, not at how events connect globally
3. Most people don’t read, think, challenge, or hear opposing views

Trump is doing this in America. Those of us with some oversight from history can see it happening. Read this brilliant, long essay in the New York magazine to understand how Plato described all this, and it is happening just as he predicted. Trump says he will Make America Great Again, when in fact America is currently great, according to pretty well any statistics. He is using passion, anger, and rhetoric in the same way all his predecessors did — a charismatic narcissist who feeds on the crowd to become ever stronger, creating a cult around himself. You can blame society, politicians, the media, for America getting to the point that it’s ready for Trump, but the bigger historical picture is that history generally plays out the same way each time someone like him becomes the boss.

On a wider stage, zoom out some more, Russia is a dictatorship with a charismatic leader using fear and passion to establish a cult around himself. Turkey is now there too. Hungary, Poland, Slovakia are heading that way, and across Europe more Trumps and Putins are waiting in the wings, in fact funded by Putin, waiting for the popular tide to turn their way.

We should be asking ourselves what our Archduke Ferdinand moment will be. How will an apparently small event trigger another period of massive destruction. We see Brexit, Trump, Putin in isolation. The world does not work that way — all things are connected and affecting each other. I have pro-Brexit friends who say ‘oh, you’re going to blame that on Brexit too??’ But they don’t realise that actually, yes, historians will trace neat lines from apparently unrelated events back to major political and social shifts like Brexit.

Brexit — a group of angry people winning a fight — easily inspires other groups of angry people to start a similar fight, empowered with the idea that they may win. That alone can trigger chain reactions. A nuclear explosion is not caused by one atom splitting, but by the impact of the first atom that splits causing multiple other atoms near it to split, and they in turn causing multiple atoms to split. The exponential increase in atoms splitting, and their combined energy is the bomb. That is how World War One started and, ironically how World War Two ended.

An example of how Brexit could lead to a nuclear war could be this:

Brexit in the UK causes Italy or France to have a similar referendum. Le Pen wins an election in France. Europe now has a fractured EU. The EU, for all its many awful faults, has prevented a war in Europe for longer than ever before. The EU is also a major force in suppressing Putin’s military ambitions. European sanctions on Russia really hit the economy, and helped temper Russia’s attacks on Ukraine (there is a reason bad guys always want a weaker European Union). Trump wins in the US. Trump becomes isolationist, which weakens NATO. He has already said he would not automatically honour NATO commitments in the face of a Russian attack on the Baltics.

With a fractured EU, and weakened NATO, Putin, facing an ongoing economic and social crisis in Russia, needs another foreign distraction around which to rally his people. He funds far right anti-EU activists in Latvia, who then create a reason for an uprising of the Russian Latvians in the East of the country (the EU border with Russia). Russia sends ‘peace keeping forces’ and ‘aid lorries’ into Latvia, as it did in Georgia, and in Ukraine. He cedes Eastern Latvia as he did Eastern Ukraine (Crimea has the same population as Latvia, by the way).

A divided Europe, with the leaders of France, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, and others now pro-Russia, anti-EU, and funded by Putin, overrule calls for sanctions or a military response. NATO is slow to respond: Trump does not want America to be involved, and a large part of Europe is indifferent or blocking any action. Russia, seeing no real resistance to their actions, move further into Latvia, and then into Eastern Estonia and Lithuania. The Baltic States declare war on Russia and start to retaliate, as they have now been invaded so have no choice. Half of Europe sides with them, a few countries remain neutral, and a few side with Russia. Where does Turkey stand on this? How does ISIS respond to a new war in Europe? Who uses a nuclear weapon first?

This is just one Arch Duke Ferdinand scenario. The number of possible scenarios are infinite due to the massive complexity of the many moving parts. And of course many of them lead to nothing happening. But based on history we are due another period of destruction, and based on history all the indicators are that we are entering one.

It will come in ways we can’t see coming, and will spin out of control so fast people won’t be able to stop it. Historians will look back and make sense of it all and wonder how we could all have been so naïve. How could I sit in a nice café in London, writing this, without wanting to run away. How could people read it and make sarcastic and dismissive comments about how pro-Remain people should stop whining, and how we shouldn’t blame everything on Brexit. Others will read this and sneer at me for saying America is in great shape, that Trump is a possible future Hitler (and yes, Godwin’s Law. But my comparison is to another narcissistic, charismatic leader fanning flames of hatred until things spiral out of control). It’s easy to jump to conclusions that oppose pessimistic predictions based on the weight of history and learning. Trump won against the other Republicans in debates by countering their claims by calling them names and dismissing them. It’s an easy route but the wrong one.

Ignoring and mocking the experts , as people are doing around Brexit and Trump’s campaign, is no different to ignoring a doctor who tells you to stop smoking, and then finding later you’ve developed incurable cancer. A little thing leads to an unstoppable destruction that could have been prevented if you’d listened and thought a bit. But people smoke, and people die from it. That is the way of the human.

So I feel it’s all inevitable. I don’t know what it will be, but we are entering a bad phase. It will be unpleasant for those living through it, maybe even will unravel into being hellish and beyond imagination. Humans will come out the other side, recover, and move on. The human race will be fine, changed, maybe better. But for those at the sharp end — for the thousands of Turkish teachers who just got fired, for the Turkish journalists and lawyers in prison, for the Russian dissidents in gulags, for people lying wounded in French hospitals after terrorist attacks, for those yet to fall, this will be their Somme.

What can we do? Well, again, looking back, probably not much. The liberal intellectuals are always in the minority. See Clay Shirky’s Twitter Storm on this point. The people who see that open societies, being nice to other people, not being racist, not fighting wars, is a better way to live, they generally end up losing these fights. They don’t fight dirty. They are terrible at appealing to the populace. They are less violent, so end up in prisons, camps, and graves. We need to beware not to become divided (see: Labour party), we need to avoid getting lost in arguing through facts and logic, and counter the populist messages of passion and anger with our own similar messages. We need to understand and use social media. We need to harness a different fear. Fear of another World War nearly stopped World War 2, but didn’t. We need to avoid our own echo chambers. Trump and Putin supporters don’t read the Guardian, so writing there is just reassuring our friends. We need to find a way to bridge from our closed groups to other closed groups, try to cross the ever widening social divides.

(Perhaps I’m just writing this so I can be remembered by history as one of the people who saw it coming.)

https://medium.com/@theonlytoby/history ... .7ptf4r7w2

Potrudio sam se da iskopiram i linkove zajedno sa textom. Mozda tu i tamo postoje neke greske u textu i sa ponekom izjavom se u potpunosti ne slazem, ali generalno je to to. U dosta toga bi se dalo zariti i dublje ali sam na te neke stvari vec ukazivao i prije.

Eto... pozz raji.

[KB9]

nevjerovatno koja kolicina paranoje u tom tekstu

[sizifinho]

haha i opet sve po istom
Dozer kralj sarkasticnih dopaski i omalovazavanja tudjeg misljenja
Stari idalje offtopicari haha

genijalno

[stari_rastafari]

Ja konto vi otvorili svoju naucnu temu... sta bi sa otim?

@KB9, nema paranoje u textu samo realno sagledavanje stvari. Ne kaze se bezveze: "Ko ne pamti, iznova prozivljava." Tako je i sa nama, ne pamtimo. Mislim, valjda ne zivimo na istoj planeti pa mozda ne registrujes desavanja oko sebe. Trzni se malo, skini ruzicasta stakla sa ociju, stvari i nisu bas tako lijepe.

@sizifinho, nista manje ne offtopicim do tebe, budi iskren, jos uvijek nisi ni pokusao napisati nesto na temu.

[KB9]

onaj tekst ti je primjer paranoje onako iz udzbenika, sad da li ti to zelis prihvatit je skroz drugo nesto

[stari_rastafari]

onaj tekst ti je primjer paranoje onako iz udzbenika, sad da li ti to zelis prihvatit je skroz drugo nesto

Neko ko izjavljuje nesto slicno je ustvari skolski primjer ignoranta. Mora da zivis izolovano bez dodira sa realnoscu.

[KB9]

onaj tekst ti je primjer paranoje onako iz udzbenika, sad da li ti to zelis prihvatit je skroz drugo nesto

Neko ko izjavljuje nesto slicno je ustvari skolski primjer ignoranta. Mora da zivis izolovano bez dodira sa realnoscu.

ja moram da zivim izolovano a ti komentarises mene dok ja komentarisem tekst?

bonton majstore, bonton

[stari_rastafari]

Aferim, upeco si me.

[sizifinho]

@sizifinho, nista manje ne offtopicim do tebe, budi iskren, jos uvijek nisi ni pokusao napisati nesto na temu.

budi iskren, samo si ko padobranac uletio na temu

jer da si tu od pocetka znao bi koliko sam u pocetku posao

elem, u svakom slucaju necu ti replicirat dalje ko sto nisam ni Dozeru

[Dozer]

Mogu ti reći drug Dozer, nedostajao si mi! Čak ti i ne zamjeram toliko što si me nazvao pudlicom. Ali eto, valjda su to tvoji načini argumentovane diskusije i debate. Nego, je l' stvarno bio toliki fazon izvrijeđati ostale u postu, tj. odgovoriti na uvrede koje su tebi upućene, pa onda ove prve prijaviti moderaciji? Meni je to nekako žalosno, vjeruj mi...

Daj mi taj post u kojem sam sve izvrijedjao...

[Zaitsev]

Jarane...ti si ovdje pao k'o padobranac kojem se nije otvorio padobran, i odmah poceo lupetati nemilice. I, naravno, vrijedjati. Vidis....ja da sam napisao nesto ovakvo kao ti u ovoj zadnjoj recenici, do sada bi me bar 50 njih napalo i trazili bi da budem "hirurski precizan" o tome da li mislim na naucnu teoriju ili "samo" teoriju. Ali, vidis kako su se svi na to oglusili i usutili kao kakve kurvice. Logicno, sviras qrcu k'o i oni, pa se po automatizmu razumijete.
Na to pitanje na koje ne znas odgovor ja sam odavno odgovorio. Da ti se padobran otvorio i da si imao vremena da nesto i procitas, to bi znao.
Ovako, ostaje ti samo da se drzis tog kaveza za avionski transport pudlica, i povremeno lanes 'nako, reda radi.

Ja cu se zadeverati oko ovoga? Da li si ti, moj "genijalni matematicaru", normalan? Pa ovo tvoje je sad vec toliko jadno i bijedno da ne znam da li da ista kazem na to....
Prvo, cemu navodnici na zvanicnim statistikama i prdvidjanjima? Nadam se samo da mi neces reci da sam ih izmislio.... A dostupne na sve strane. Samo proberi koji izvor je tebi locno najrelevantniji....
Pa, covjece.., da li si ti uopste svjestan da ja cijelo vrijeme pitanje i postavljam ovako kako si ti sada, kao, formulisao svoju...ne znam ni ja sta.... Ja cijelo vrijeme i govorim AKO se trend nastavi, a ti sad, kao veliki genijalni mag, prevrces to moje pitanje i uzimas ga kao da ga ti sad postavljas
Ako sam ja preglup za matematiku, onda ne znam za sta si ti pametan osim matematike... A cak ni tu tvoju matematicku " pamet" nismo imali prilike vidjeti na djelu....
Sta kazes....to ne dokazuje moju "teoriju" ? To ne dokazuje ono sto sam od starta govorio, a to je da kontinuirano smanjenje stope nataliteta neminovno vodi depopulaciji? BUHAHAHAHAHA!
Sreca pa upravo nisi sam sebe demantovao

[Dozer]

Ja...i...?
Gdje sam te nazvao "pudlicom"? Rekao sam da se drzis kaveza za pudlice, ne da si ti pudlica...

A to drugo, pa iz tog posta je vise nego ocigledno sta je meni sve receno prije toga, pa ne bih komentarisao... Ali, bujrum. Ko god misli da sam ga uvrijedio, neka slobodno prijavi.
Ti iscitaj sve vase uvrede kroz temu, pa da vagamo. Moze?

[belfy]

nacekaces se na odgovor. Chmoljo mu je dodijelio pocasnu titulu Kulina Bana na mjesec...

[Dozer]

Kad ba... Sto li, pitam se...?

[Chmoljo]

eksplicitna slika odrubljivanja glave je sasvim dovoljan razlog za ban...

[Dozer]

To nisam upratio...

[stari_rastafari]

@sizifinho, nista manje ne offtopicim do tebe, budi iskren, jos uvijek nisi ni pokusao napisati nesto na temu.

budi iskren, samo si ko padobranac uletio na temu

jer da si tu od pocetka znao bi koliko sam u pocetku posao

elem, u svakom slucaju necu ti replicirat dalje ko sto nisam ni Dozeru

Procito sam 80% tvojih postova na ovoj temi. Namjenski sam se potrudio i krenuo od prve stranice. Znam o cemu pricam. Dosad si komentarisao samo ono sto drugi pisu, i skoro od samog pocetka se natezes sa ostalima.

[Dozer]

Eh, moj Stari...ja mu to govorim mjesecima, ali - ili ne konta sta mu se govori, ili nece da skonta... A cijelo vrijeme ocekuje i trazi "argumentovanu" raspravu, pri cemu niti daje ikakve argumente, niti zna postaviti vlastitu analizu bilo cega... Samo Copy&Paste sta je neko negdje napisao, ili komentar necega sto je neko ovdje napisao...
I kako onda imati regularnu diskusiju...?

[belfy]

mah, "regularne diskusije" su precijenjene. svako iole karakteran ima zelju povremeno da se nagovori nekome. meni je to jedna od cari foruma vala. ako se predje crta, onda je red upozoriti, a normalan insan ce se izviniti i sve se nastavlja. tako su se barem uvijek na forumu pravila "prijateljstva". ako je neko samo tu da baci lajk na neciji komentar hebes to.

uvijek sam vise cijenio one koji pisu sto misle, nego da se uvlace drugim forumasima. hebiga, odrastao u onom sistemu kada smo svi mrzili uvlaciguze. no, svjestan sam i da je danas situacija malo drugacija...

pravi karakter sebi ne bi mozda trebao dozvoliti da bude isprovociran, ali hebem ga, barem je kod nas uvijek vazilo pravilo: "Hebes karakter koji nije labilan." no, to sam samo ja, jel...

[stari_rastafari]

@Dozer
Ma znam, a i sam znas sta sam dosada pisao i njemu i ostalima. Moj prvi post na temu je bio, sad iz ove perspektive, propao pokusaj da povezem vise aspekata sa ovom temom, jer, barem po meni, ima i te kako smisla. Svi smo paranoici i duduci cim napises, izjavis ili podijelis nesto sto se ne slaze sa uvrijezenim "narodnim" misljenjem. Ja samo mislim da ove stvari koje vidimo danas imaju veze i sa ovom temom i objasnio sam u kojem smislu to ja vidim. Ti ces se Dozeru vjerovatno sjetiti. Htio sam ja jos stosta tu napisati ali me smetnuse raznim podvaljivanjima i nesuvislim napadima na moju osobu i misljenje. Stavise fasovah ban ni kriv ni duzan i to samo zato sto sam odlucio da se suprostavim tim napadima. Valjda je uredu meni lijepiti etikete ali nije uredu da ja na to i odgovorim. Bilo kako bilo, nemam ja sad nesto ni plaho vremena da se prepirem ovdje niti me to nesto bas i zanima. Mislim ono sto mislim, imam razloga zasto to mislim, i svjestan sam da je to oprecno od misljenja velike vecine. A mislim da je velika vecina u zabludi i izmanipulisana nametnutim, vjestacki proizvedenim strahom od drugog i drugacijeg pa se ta vecina brani mrznjom itd... Treba vidjeti sta se desava po Europi. Nekome ko se iole zanima historijom ce biti jasno da sve sto se danas desava se desavalo vise puta kroz historiju. I tako dalje, i tako sire...

I dalje tvrdim, da umjesto rasprave o nasem nastanku trebamo voditi razgovor o nasem opstanku. Velikim koracima se blizimo slijedecoj ljudskoj katastrofi, nazalost.

[stari_rastafari]

@belfy

Sve udure, i treba da budu oprecna misljenja, jer samo tako mozemo i nauciti nesto novo. Evo npr, ja se sa Dozerom u nekim stvarima mozda i ne slazem al necu na njega sasuti drvlje i kamenje i nazivati ga svakakvim imenima, epitetima i tako dalje... Ljudi smo, svako ima svoj mozak pa nekad je potreban i tzv brainstorming i zustra rasprava, ali treba ostati u granicama normale i raspravljati argumentima.