Nancy Drew wrote:Stratfor
With an unrivalled blend of strategic and tactical expertise, Stratfor specializes in providing situational awareness, focused insight and actionable intelligence in the areas of geopolitics, security and public policy to help our clients prepare for uncertainties and take action for maximizing results.
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Dodik's Stand
May 25, 2007 17 51 GMT
Summary
The U.S. State Department meeting with Bosnia-Herzegovina's fighting leaders -- Milorad Dodik, prime minister of the Serbian entity Republika Srpska, and Haris Silajdzic, leader of the Bosnian Muslim community -- has failed. The meeting ended with Dodik storming out after a series of threats and exchanges between him and U.S. Ambassador to Sarajevo Douglas McElhaney. McElhaney has threatened to have Dodik removed from office and Dodik has dared him to try, especially since Dodik knows the West already has its hands full with one conflict in the Balkans and is anxious about risking a second -- and possibly larger -- one.
Analysis
Bosnia-Herzegovina's two rival leaders -- Serbian entity Republika Srpska's Prime Minister Milorad Dodik and Haris Silajdzic, leader of the Muslim community in Bosnia-Herzegovina -- failed in their May 22-24 talks with U.S. State Department officials in Washington. The talks, designed to negotiate constitutional agreements between the two sides, ended late May 24 after Dodik stormed out of the meeting. He is returning to Republika Srpska on May 25.
Silajdzic has been in the United States since May 21, when Bosnia-Herzegovina celebrated the 15th anniversary of its U.N. membership. It was unclear at first whether Dodik would attend the meeting; on his way to the meeting, he called it "unnecessary" and a waste of his time because he knew that neither he nor Silajdzic would budge from their positions.
Bosnia-Herzegovina has been deadlocked since the Dayton Accords gave the country its current configuration in early 1995. The accords -- designed by the United Nations after the Bosnian War -- set up Bosnia-Herzegovina under three ethnicities: the Serbs, the Croats and the Muslims (known as Bosniacs). The three sides have operated under the sharp U.N. eye, with the international body setting up a high representative office to have the final political say. Bosnia-Herzegovina is split into two entities: Republika Srpska, which has an ethnically Serbian majority, and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is majority Muslim but with a large Croat community. The country has three governments -- one for each ethnicity -- and one central government with three presidents. As if this were not confusing enough, each government also has its own constitution and police force. It is this last point that has caused such fierce debate among the groups. The United Nations is requiring Bosnia-Herzegovina to ratify one common constitution and one unified police force in which each ethnicity plays an active part.
Dodik recently launched a large campaign for reforms countering the West's proposals. Dodik says Muslim extremist movements have been growing exponentially in Bosnia-Herzegovina and that Republic Srpska cannot agree to a unified police force that would leave the Serbs undefended. Dodik even pushed through the central government's parliament a law that will begin investigations into Muslims in Bosnia-Herzegovina who were naturalized after the Bosnian War. The law has already stripped 488 Muslims of their citizenship, and another 1,500 could be deported. The Muslim community has expressed its outrage over the new law and over Dodik. Dodik also is preparing a formal proposal for "federalized units" within Bosnia-Herzegovina that would not be allowed to be mixed ethnically. The Bosniacs have called this ethnic segregation with the potential for ethnic cleansing as seen in the past, but the Croats -- who are just as nationalist as the Serbs -- also are behind the plan.
In response to Dodik's bold moves, many within Bosnia-Herzegovina have called for the U.N. high representative to step in, but that office is in transition; former U.N. High Representative Christian Schwartz-Schilling will pass the reigns to Miroslav Lajcak of Slovakia in June. Lajcak has already threatened to remove Dodik from his premiership; Dodik said Republika Srpska would not accept the high representative "using its authority to impose solutions or dismiss people" and would not concede "even if the high representative sends a battering ram before its headquarters."
This same threat prompted Dodik to storm out of the meetings in Washington. Dodik's exit is said to have come after a heated exchange with U.S. Ambassador to Sarajevo Douglas McElhaney. Dodik replied to McElhaney's threat of removal by saying the United States cannot remove him because the people of Republika Srpska would not stand for it and, moreover, because Dodik had "higher friends" in Washington than McElhaney who would not allow Bosnia-Herzegovina to destabilize when there are already other problems in the region.
Dodik is not very likely to have "higher friends" in Washington, but it is true that a destabilized Bosnia-Herzegovina would be a disaster for the West, which is already preoccupied with the growing threats in Serbia and its secessionist region of Kosovo. It would be catastrophic for the West to have to take on two conflicts in the Balkans at once. Dodik has dared the West to move against him. Not only does the West have the legal authority to remove him from his post, it also is anxious to get rid of such an unpredictable leader and will use any excuse to do so after the headaches Dodik has caused. However, Dodik is returning to Republic Srpska, where he will begin rallying his support, which could set off a big -- and possibly bloody -- battle if he is pushed from office.
http://www.stratfor.com/products/premiu ... ?id=289252