Obama i SAD (2008-2016)

[jefferson]

jaoo, McCain suspendovao kampanju, a onda udarac: "Predsjednik mora biti u mogucnosti da radi vise od jedne stvari u isto vrijeme"
Izgleda da ce ga ovaj takticki potez bel kostat, jos hoce da prolongira debatu!

[Dr.Cuddy]

Nece ni Klintonka vise bivseg predsjednika,zna ženmska gdje lezi buducnost.

[ahuseino]

jaoo, McCain suspendovao kampanju, a onda udarac: "Predsjednik mora biti u mogucnosti da radi vise od jedne stvari u isto vrijeme"
Izgleda da ce ga ovaj takticki potez bel kostat, jos hoce da prolongira debatu!

Ne znam bil' se slozio.

Ovo je potez da se okrene pricha na character recognition i leadership abilities. Takodje, Obama vodi na issue of economy, i ovaj potez je napravljen s ciljem da se deduka malo popravi u toj eriji.

Mislim da bi ovo moglo biti malo loshe za Obamu, u smislu javne percepcije...

[jeza u ledja]

Za ljude kojima odgovara 'cowboy politics' ce ovakav potez McCaina biti super, za one normalne nece. Sutra se treba desiti debata, bice ludo ako se McCain ne pojavi.

Ja cu opet tradicionalno nastaviti sa brojkama. Obama nacionalno vodi 3.5% u prosjeku svih anketa, sto je skoro vodjstvo koje je uzivao tokom vecine ljeta.

Medjutim, po drzavama, i nakon velikog skoka Obame nakon svoje konvencije, te nakon jos veceg skoka McCaina nakon izabiranja Palinove, te povratka Obame prosle sedmice u vodjstvo, u medjuvremenu nijedna drzava nije presla u ruke drugog. Obama i dalje ima minimalnu prednost 273-265 elektorskih glasova.

No, u tri drzave koje je 'preokrenuo' Obama je povecao vodjstvo. Tako je u Coloradu u prosjeku svih anketa Obama dosao cak na +5.4%. Prije mjesec dana je McCain imao vodjstvo. U Iowi Obama debelo vodi +9.4% i tu odavno vec nema polemike ko pobjedjuje. U New Mexicu Obama ima prednost +6.0%.
Ako uzme ove tri drzave i zadrzi sve Kerryjeve Obama pobjedjuje, ali kako stvari stoje lakse ce mu biti za ove tri nego neke Kerryjeve. Prije svega je tu New Hampshire koji je inace uvijek anomalija na izborima. Tamo je McCain cini se smanjio vodjstvo Obame koji je sad na samo +2.0%. Kad bi se desio scenarij koji spomenuh gore, a da McCain preotme New Hampshire, onda bi oba kandidata dobila 269 elektorskih boba.

E sad, postoje po hajd recimo tri-cetiri drzave plave i crvene koje Obama i McCain moraju zadrzati ako misle pobjediti, a u kojima je tijesno.

Za Obamu, to su Pennsylvania (21 el. boba), Michigan (17), Minnesota (10) i Wisconsin (10) (ukupno 58 boba). U sve cetiri Obama je uvijek imao vodjstvo, ali minimalno. U Pennsylvaniji u prosjeku anketa vodi za +3.7%, u Michiganu Obama vodi za +4.5%, a u Wisconsinu za +3.8% i u Minnesoti +2.8%. Ni u jednoj od tih drzava McCain nikada nije vodio u prosjeku anketa.

Za McCaina je malo teza situacija. On mora braniti Floridu (27 boba), Ohio (20 boba), Virginiju (13) i Nevadu (5) (ukupno 65 boba). U Ohiju i Virginiji situacija je bare-bare, sa blagom prednoscu McCaina. Tako u Ohiu, koji je do sada vise puta prelazio iz ruku jednog do drugog, vodi za +1.6%, dok u Virginiji McCain vodi za samo +0.8%. Ove dvije drzave ce vjerovatno do samog konca biti 'battleground'. Pored njih tu je Florida, koju McCain mora uzeti, i u kojoj doduse ima malo vise sansi nego u Ohiju i Virginiji, ali opet je blizu, trenutna prednost McCaina nad Obamom na Floridi je +2.1%. Sjecam se donedavno je non-stop bila 4%+. I na kraju, mala Nevada koja je treca od ovih drzava Zapada koju bi Obama mogao preoteti je takodje up for grabs, kao Ohio i Virginia. Trenutno u njoj McCain vodi za samo +1.7%.

(Da napomenem da su svi ovi postoci prosjek veceg broja anketa, tako da su dosta pouzdaniji od pojedinacnih anketa. )

Pored ovih drzava jos valja spomenuti nekoliko interesantnih. U North Carolini neki pollovi su prikazivali McCaina na i po 20% prednosti samo prije sedmicu-dvije. Istovremeno neki drugi su pokazivali njegovu prednost na samo 2,3%. Mislim da niko ne vjeruje da bi Obama tamo mogao pobjediti no danas je izasla jedna anketa u kojoj Obama ima prednost od +2%, sto je prvi put ove godine u bilo kojoj anketi da Obama vodi. U druge dvije koje su izasle prije par dana skor je bare-bare. Tako je trenutna prednost McCaina u NC pala na samo +3.2%. Inace North Carolina nosi velikih 15 elektorskih boba. Dalje, U Missouriju (11 boba), koji se i dalje smatra 'battleground state' McCain i vodi +4.7%. U Indiani (11 boba) McCain vodi za samo 2.1%. North Carolina, Missouri i Indiana su sve drzave koje su 'pod moranje' za McCaina.

Sve ostale drzave su solidnih 5%+, 10%+ i 20%+ ili vise prednosti za nekog od kandidata i sigurno nece promjeniti ruke u narednih mjesec dana.


Sutra je dakle trebala poceti 'debatna sezona'. U roku narednih mjesec dana trebale su biti odrzane 3 predsjednicke debate, te 1 podpredsjednicka. Sutrasnja debata trebala je mescini biti o spoljnoj politici. S obzirom da se na Wall Streetu desava financial meltdown pitam se na sta li ce liciti narednih mjesec dana predsjednicke kampanje.
Ako stvarno nastupi totalni ekonomski kolaps, sto je vrlo moguce, sve ce otici u kurac, pa ce ljudima manje biti bitno ko je predsjednik.

[ahuseino]

Mislim da je ovo sto John M. momentalno radi, dobro za njega bash u sluchaju kraha kreditnog marketa (a time i chitave ekonomije)... jer on eto sada uzima inicijativu, 110% posto se posvetio problemu, otishao u kongres "to push this bill through, and to do his best to help the US economy and your average American worker on the Main St.".

U sluchaju tog crnog scenarija (a ja bih lichno pustio banke da sagore do temelja), John M. che se u Novembru mochi osvrnuti i reci: "dok sam ja radio na problemu, on je htjeo debatovati."

Mislim da je Obama trebao odgoditi, ne zbog toga sto zbilja treba, nego chisto iz politickih razloga da ne ispada on pakash u ovom 'odsudnom trenutku' - dok svi gledaju kako da pomognu-lafo. McCain se uhvatio u republikansko kolo u smislu urgency-ja nametnutog od strane Busha, Paulsen-a i Bernanke-ja. Medije su pune tog 'osjechanja' urgency, i da se to mora sign off ove sedmice ili ode sve u helach. McCain je sada good boy, a Obama nije... to je to sto je McCain camp htjeo postichi, i uspjeche...

... a nisu morali...

[jeza u ledja]

McCain je izjavio da nece ici na debatu ako se danas ne postigne dogovor u Kongresu. Evo sad citam da je dogovor postignut. McCain nije ni na jednom relevantnom committee sto se tice ove krize, tako da ne znam na koji nacin on to moze pomoci, pogotovo kad je poznato da nije bas stucnjak za ekonomiju.

Na Gallup three-day tracking pollu jucerasnja prednost Obame od 3% je danas pala na 0, sto je veliki pad, medjutim navode neko komplikovano objasnjenje da pad nije toliko drastican. To je pogotovo cudno zato sto je drugi three-day tracking poll Rasmussen (koji je mnogo konzervativniji u smislu oscilacija) skocio na 3%, mislim da je juce ili prekjuce bio na 0%. Treci three-day tracking poll Hotline ima Obamu na +4%. Nidje veze. Aniliticaru kazu da nikad pollovi nisu skakali ovako drasticno u kratkom vremenskom periodu. Neko ih je opisao kao EKG pulse.

Ono sto McCain radi u kampanji je da igra na bombasticne poteze. To mu je valjda taj 'maverick image'. Sve sto radi je nekonvencioalno. Na taj nacin dobije momentarnu podrsku swing voters, ali ona traje vrlo kratko i poslije se vrati u 'normalu', a to je prednost Obame od 3-4 postotka, tako da se vrlo lako moze desiti da i zbog ovog jucerasnjeg potaze 'suspendiranja' kampanje (my ass) dobije neke kratkorocne poene. Plasim se samo da ce nesto slicno uraditi koji dan pred izbore i tako dobiti izbore na 'BU'!

[ahuseino]

... ma sve mu je paravan, i blef...

[ljubav_aha]

... ma sve mu je paravan, i blef...

upravo tako

[jeza u ledja]

WOW

[omar little]

WOW

JAO!! Izgubih dah od intelektualne i verbalne snage i moci gospoJe Palin!

[jeza u ledja]

Kompletan transkript intevjua, uradjenog 25/9

Katie Couric: As we stand before this august building and institution, what do you see as the role of the United States in the world?

Sarah Palin: I see the United States as being a force for good in the world. And as Ronald Reagan used to talk about, America being the beacon of light and hope for those who are seeking democratic values and tolerance and freedom. I see our country being able to represent those things that can be looked to … as that leadership, that light needed across the world.

Couric: In preparing for this conversation, a lot of our viewers … and Internet users wanted to know why you did not get a passport until last year. And they wondered if that indicated a lack of interest and curiosity in the world.

Palin: I'm not one of those who maybe came from a background of, you know, kids who perhaps graduate college and their parents give them a passport and give them a backpack and say go off and travel the world.

No, I've worked all my life. In fact, I usually had two jobs all my life until I had kids. I was not a part of, I guess, that culture. The way that I have understood the world is through education, through books, through mediums that have provided me a lot of perspective on the world.

Couric: Gov. Palin, you've had a very busy week. And you're meeting with many world leaders. You met with President Karzai of Afghanistan. I know the McCain campaign has called for a surge in Afghanistan. But that country is, as you know, dramatically different than Iraq. Why do you believe additional troops, U.S. troops, will solve the problem there?

Palin: Because we can't afford to lose in Afghanistan, as we cannot afford to lose in Iraq, either, these central fronts on the war on terror. And I asked President Karzai, "Is that what you are seeking, also? That strategy that has worked in Iraq that John McCain had pushed for, more troops? A counterinsurgency strategy?" And he said, "yes." And he also showed great appreciation for what America and American troops are providing in his country.

Couric: The United States is deeply unpopular in Pakistan. Do you think the Pakistani government is protecting al Qaeda within its borders?

Palin: I don't believe that new President Zardari has that mission at all. But no, the Pakistani people also, they want freedom. They want democratic values to be allowed in their country, also. They understand the dangers of terrorists having a stronghold in regions of their country, also. And I believe that they, too, want to rid not only their country, but the world, of violent Islamic terrorists.

Couric: You've cited Alaska's proximity to Russia as part of your foreign policy experience. What did you mean by that?

Sarah Palin: That Alaska has a very narrow maritime border between a foreign country, Russia, and, on our other side, the land-boundary that we have with Canada. It's funny that a comment like that was kinda made to … I don't know, you know … reporters.

Couric: Mocked?

Palin: Yeah, mocked, I guess that's the word, yeah.

Couric: Well, explain to me why that enhances your foreign-policy credentials.

Palin: Well, it certainly does, because our, our next-door neighbors are foreign countries, there in the state that I am the executive of. And there…

Couric: Have you ever been involved in any negotiations, for example, with the Russians?

Palin: We have trade missions back and forth, we do. It's very important when you consider even national security issues with Russia. As Putin rears his head and comes into the air space of the United States of America, where do they go? It's Alaska. It's just right over the border. It is from Alaska that we send those out to make sure that an eye is being kept on this very powerful nation, Russia, because they are right there, they are right next to our state.

Couric: When President Bush ran for office, he opposed nation-building. But he has spent, as you know, much of his presidency promoting democracy around the world. What lessons have you learned from Iraq? And how specifically will you try to spread democracy throughout the world?

Palin: Specifically, we will make every effort possible to help spread democracy for those who desire freedom, independence, tolerance, respect for equality. That is the whole goal here in fighting terrorism also. It's not just to keep the people safe, but to be able to usher in democratic values and ideals around this, around the world.

Couric: You met yesterday with former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who is for direct diplomacy with both Iran and Syria. Do you believe the U.S. should negotiate with leaders like President Assad and Ahmadinejad?

Palin: I think, with Ahmadinejad, personally, he is not one to negotiate with. You can't just sit down with him with no preconditions being met. Barack Obama is so off-base in his proclamation that he would meet with some of these leaders around our world who would seek to destroy America and that, and without preconditions being met. That's beyond naïve. And it's beyond bad judgment.

Couric: Are you saying Henry Kissinger …

Palin: It's dangerous.

Couric: … is naïve for supporting that?

Palin: I've never heard Henry Kissinger say, "Yeah, I'll meet with these leaders without preconditions being met." Diplomacy is about doing a lot of background work first and shoring up allies and positions and figuring out what sanctions perhaps could be implemented if things weren't gonna go right. That's part of diplomacy.

Couric: You recently said three times that you would never, quote, "second guess" Israel if that country decided to attack Iran. Why not?

Palin: We shouldn't second guess Israel's security efforts because we cannot ever afford to send a message that we would allow a second Holocaust, for one. Israel has got to have the opportunity and the ability to protect itself. They are our closest ally in the Mideast. We need them. They need us. And we shouldn't second guess their efforts.

Couric: You don't think the United States is within its rights to express its position to Israel? And if that means second-guessing or discussing an option?

Palin: No, abso … we need to express our rights and our concerns and …

Couric: But you said never second guess them.

Palin: We don't have to second-guess what their efforts would be if they believe … that it is in their country and their allies, including us, all of our best interests to fight against a regime, especially Iran, who would seek to wipe them off the face of the earth. It is obvious to me who the good guys are in this one and who the bad guys are. The bad guys are the ones who say Israel is a stinking corpse and should be wiped off the face of the earth. That's not a good guy who is saying that. Now, one who would seek to protect the good guys in this, the leaders of Israel and her friends, her allies, including the United States, in my world, those are the good guys.



EDIT: U stvari nije ovo komplet intervju. Mrsko mi sad traziti drugi dio.

[ahuseino]

uhm... aaaavvvvvaaaajjjj.... y'a 'now... huh?

puko sam od smijeha...

Isto kad Bush ono izgubi misao u po rechenice, pa mu pogled odluta, pa mu i postane mrsko sjetit se o chemu je ono prichao...

[ahuseino]

prodje i prva debata...

McCain mi je bio pravo arogantan, nije ni jednom chini mi se pogledao Obamu, a na svako pitanje je pocheo odgovor: "Obama ovo ne razumije bash najbolje..." pa onda nastavi.

Mislim da je Obama trebao biti vishe bezobrazan. Izrazavao je postovanje prema metuzalemu, a ovaj mu je uzvratio podsmijehom, cinichnoshchu i arogancijom.

NBC lokalni dnevnik je poslije pripisao 'pobjedu' Obami, ali je lokalni poll favor 60% McCaina. Vidjechemo kako che izachi nacionalni. Imam utisak da che i taj biti vishe na strani McCaina jer je bio dosta agresivniji. Obama je bio puno vishe on defensive.

Ja sam pola - pola... ali ja sam biased...

[AenemA]

McCain je jedno 10 puta odgovrio Obami sa "Senator Obama does not understand..",izgleda mu je ovo jedini adut u vecini slucajeva.Mislim da je Obama bio malo blag prema starcu i da je trebao biti malo agresivniji a ne nekoliko puta"I think John is right...".McCaina kad cujem kako prica o "surge" i kako je rat u Iraku ipak uspio i kako pobjedjuju i kako ce se vratiti kuci sa cascu, dodjemi da ekran pepeljarom gadjam.Sve u svemu mislim da nema nekog narocitog pobjednika debate.Jedva cekam iducu sedmice kad se ona kucka Palin sastaje sa Biden-om.*ebo ikakvu komediju, kad se ona podje prosipati.Kad mu kaze "I can see Russia from my house"

[omar little]

Ja nesto vishe ne pratim detalje kampanje, okupira mi Wall Street svu paznju, ali od Palin-Biden cu napraviti dogadjaj. Bice super, unaprijed se radujem. U otirach bi se mogla gospoJa Palin transformirati tijekom i posle debate. A mogla bih ja i neku finu klopu spremit' da sve bude na nivou.

[hik--meta]

crnjo je dobro odradio posao u prvoj debati. puno je elokventniji od metuzalema, tako da ni pokusaji napada dede na njega nisu izgledali ozbiljni jer se zna odbraniti.

[jeza u ledja]

Ja evo danas odgledah snimak debate. Po meni McCain mnogo bolji, osim u prvih pola sata kad su pricali o ekonomiji.

Sta misli nOAArod vidjecemo sutra na pollovima.

Btw, onih 273-265 koje non stop spominjem i koji se dugo nisu mijenjali...pa eto promjenise se juce. Sad je u 'poll of polls' u Virginiji Obama presao u vodjstvo +1.8%. Tako da je u ukupnom skoru sada 286-252 (tacno obrnuto Bush-Kerry prije 4 godine). U poll of polls na nacionalnom nivou Obama je sad na solidnih +4.3%.

[jeza u ledja]

Sudeci po Gallup pollu koji je od jucerasnjih +5% skocio na +8% za Obamu, on je pobjedio u debati.

Danas je Obama 'flip' jos jednu drzavu, i to po prvi put do sada, a to je srprajzingli - North Carolina. Mada je vodjstvo irelevantnih 0.3%. Al s obzirom da se radi o izrazito 'crvenoj' drzavi koja nosi dosta boba nije lose.

U bobama Obama sada ima 301, McCain 237.

[JThomas]

pa draga ameriko...adnan terzić je za nju doktor nauka

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/2 ... 30395.html

[jeza u ledja]

Jednom sam davno cuo da bez obzira sto je ova izborna trka tako blizu da ce se ona na kraju zavrsiti sa 'landslide' jednog od kandidata. Kako sada stvari stoje Obama ima jako veliku prednost. Dugo vremena je imao samo 273 elektorske bobe (a McCain 265) da bi se u roku dvije sedmice Obamina prednost povecala na ja mislim najvecu do sad - Obama trenutno ima 348 elektorskih glasova, a McCain samo 190. (za pobjedu je potrebno 270).

Obama je od danas 'preuzeo' vodjstvo u anketama u dvije drzave od krucijalne vaznosti - Floridi i Ohiu. U prosjeku svih skorasnjih anketa u Ohiu Obama sada vodi za +2%, a na Floridi za +1.4%. Ovo je prvi put uopste da ima bilo kakvu prednost na Floridi. Obje drzave su od izuzetne vaznosti jer zajedno nose 47 elektorskih boba. Vazne su pogotovo McCainu koji bez osvajanja obje nema nikakve sanse da pobjedi. Pored ovih, Obama i dalje vodi u republikanskoj North Carolini, Virginiji, Coloradu, Iowi i New Mexicu, te u svim demokratskim drzavama.

Jos nesto interesantno, u mnogim drzavama pocinje early voting, za koje se predvidja da ce ove godine ciniti mozda i do trecinu ukupnih glasova. U Ohiu early voting pocinje danas.

Evo jedan dobar clanak sa Politico:

Nervous GOP urges McCain to attack

John McCain’s fade in recent polls, combined with a barrage of negative news coverage during the financial crisis, has leading Republican activists around the country worrying about his prospects and urging his campaign to become much more aggressive against Barack Obama in the remaining month before Election Day.

A flurry of new polls shows Barack Obama gaining in several battleground states – most notably Florida, Pennsylvania and swing states throughout the West. Officials worry early voting, which is under way in important states such as Ohio, is likely to favor Obama in this toxic political climate.

Several state GOP chairmen in interviews urged the McCain campaign to be more aggressive in hitting Obama’s vulnerabilities, such as his past relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and other problematic associations from Chicago.

But as September turns to October—Wednesday marks 34 days to the Nov. 4 election—it is clear McCain himself is to blame for the most urgent problems. His snap decision to throw himself into the bailout debate has proven disastrous, since his efforts looked late and half-hearted, and many in the GOP ignored his pleas in Monday’s House vote.

And his selection of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, initially a political boon, has become a distraction inside and out of the campaign, with top staff now sidelined trying to avoid a debate disaster on Thursday night, officials close to the campaign say.

But some fundamental troubles are outside his control. The forceful emergence of the sour economy as a dominant issue has Republicans worried in general.

Jeff Frederick, chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia, said he was disappointed with McCain’s early performance in the debate when the focus was on the economy. “He really left a lot on the table while Barack Obama was really kind of hitting him.”

If this election has taught the campaigns and the press anything, it's to expect the unexpected. So momentum could easily swing suddenly back in McCain’s favor, especially if Palin and then McCain do well in the final debates.

A top McCain campaign official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said: "Polls will move and change — especially as interest grows. It’s a hard week to judge because of the dramatic shifts in the economy. We continue to be in a very fluid environment."

GOP officials also believe that a sustained attack on Obama’s ties to his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, scandal-stained businessman Tony Rezko and former radical war protester William Ayers could sway undecided voters.

Among those goading McCain to be more aggressive is Tennessee Republican Party Chairman Robin Smith, who said that “people need to see a gladiator who’s willing to defend what exactly he stands for.”

“We’re not talking, for instance, about the radical associations that Barack Obama has, with Mr. Ayers, Tony Rezko and so on,” Smith said. “More could be done.”

Murray Clark, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, said he is eager for Obama’s “troubling relationships” to be aired in his state. “I think those things will come up in Indiana again and they do have an impact on mainstream voters in Indiana. You call it going negative, [but] whoever ... is in a position to point out these relationships, I think it’s helpful.”

But right now the economic situation is very troubling for McCain.

A Washington Post-ABC News poll taken Monday night found that more than twice as many people blamed Republicans for the defeat of the Wall Street rescue as blamed Democrats (44 percent to 21 percent).

Further, the financial crisis will only exacerbate a right track/wrong track split – one of the statistical north stars of the public mood – that Republicans hoped wouldn’t get worse.

"For the first time in American history, at least since Valley Forge, the right track of the country will be in single digits tonight,” predicted one longtime GOP strategist after Monday’s debacle.

Sure enough, this strategist said that surveys taken since Monday in one of the reddest of red states showed that the right track number there had plummeted to single digits.

Moreover, the saturation attention to the economy – always a weak spot for McCain and for the administration he’s tied to – has thwarted his effort to make the race a referendum on Obama, as public attention turns toward a global crisis and away from partisan attacks.

McCain’s first signs of life only came after his campaign mocked Obama as a celebrity and sought to make the best of a race that had increasingly been defined by the Illinois Democrat. Then, thanks in part to Palin, McCain pulled even or took a lead in some polls after a convention that savaged Obama and featured only a brief video from President Bush and no appearance at all by Vice President Cheney.

Now, with the financial crisis front and center, Bush has reappeared on the landscape and the race is no longer an Obama referendum.

The damage is registering powerfully on the electoral map and in state and national polling, the officials say. McCain has lost ground in at least eight key swing states, and the officials say his path to victory is so narrow that it allows virtually no room for error.

Recent polls have shown Obama ahead in Colorado, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with gains in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and New Mexico.

Two recent national tracking polls – from Gallup and The Hotline – both show Obama enjoying a six-point lead. A Washington Post-ABC News poll out Tuesday night showed Obama with a four-point advantage among likely voters (50 to 46), down from an anomalous nine points the week before.

Some Republicans say they are uncertain of McCain’s electoral strategy, wondering why, for example, he’s back in Iowa this week, a state few independent analysts see as being in play and where public polls this month show Obama enjoying a double-digit lead even before the economic meltdown. Asked why McCain was in Iowa, one veteran Republican there replied: “Because he’s running a senseless, non-strategic campaign. Why else would he come here?”

Despite the grumbling, McCain’s political hands say they’re making progress on the ground and are nearing or exceeding the apparatus they had in place in 2004. A top Republican National Committee aide said field staffers and volunteers made more phone calls and door knocks last week than at the same point four years ago. The joint campaign-committee Victory effort has over 400 offices in place.

“We have hit every goal we have set,” said the aide. “We’re on offense in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota,” five states that were in the Democratic column in 2004.

It is also possible the bailout will pass, the economy will stabilize and the campaign will shift to other issues. But GOP officials are increasingly pessimistic that the contest will turn away from pocketbook issues. The two biggest concerns they expressed in private: that the economy will dominate voting and that McCain has botched the issue from day one.

That has had the effect of neutralizing what these officials saw as his greatest strength: providing hard-nosed leadership in hard-luck times.

[ahuseino]

Ako ga ovi urgiraju, mozemo ochekivati da che to i uraditi u slijedechim danima.

Situacija koja se deshava nije mogla dochi u gore vrijeme po McCaina. Ljudi mozda pochinju da shvataju da maverick ticket predstavlja 'more of the same'. Njegov rekord glasanja ti indicira, a sada se narod uvjerava koliko republikanska filozofija ima udjela u danashnjoj situaciji.
Lack of substance Palinove doesn't help... the shiny object is fading .

Jedva chekam da vidim kako che je Biden meziti, sazvakati, progutati, pa podrignuti. Samo da ne dobije zgaravicu od zilava mesa.
Kako je jadna krenula u interview-ima sa Catie Couric josh che je Deduka skinuti sa tiketa...

[jeza u ledja]

Jos jedan interesantan clanak. Philadelphia Inquirer.

A new chapter in the American saga


See if any of this sounds familiar:

"What was there to hamper the furious onward march of business? Not the government, whose regulatory officials and commissions seemed to be napping...What was destined to halt the forward progress of business was the fact that (Wall Street) had become bemused with paper values - with the piling up of speculative or artificially generated wealth which had little relation to the production of goods...The irresponsible actions of men who did not stop to think they were constructing a caricature of the capitalist system were paving the way for disaster...Who could have halted the disaster? (The Republican regime) was apparently too wedded to the idea that government must keep its hands of business."

So wrote historian Frederick Lewis Allen, looking back at the root causes of the 1929 Wall Street crash. What followed, of course, was a marked shift in the political winds. Four years later, the voters gave Franklin D. Roosevelt a mandate (however ill-defined) to do something about the economy. As Allen would later write, laissez-faire capitalism was out and federal oversight of the markets was in - thereby eradicting the old order "in which everybody's economic fortunes were determined by the action of buyers and sellers in the open market, with the government standing aside."

We appear to have reached a similar juncture today. The modern conservative movement - founded on a philosophical hostility to government - has largely exhausted itself, thanks to the excesses of those cowboys who were allowed to roam free, constructing a caricature of the capitalist system. A new chapter in our national saga is at hand. Many Americans, including swing voters, are not necessarily fans of strengthened government intervention (indeed, as well know, the government screws up a lot), but, as in 1933, Americans look to government in times of serious crisis.

This is one of those times - and most polls suggest that this sentiment is buoying Barack Obama's prospects. For instance, it's particularly noteworthy that, in the latest Quinnipiac survey of battleground states (released this morning), Obama is now leading John McCain by eight points in the state of Florida. I repeat, Florida. Florida is McCain's make-or-break state. The key statistic concerns the economy. When asked to choose the candidate who could best handle our economic woes, Floridians favored Obama by 14 percentage points; independents favored Obama by 17 points.

There are durable stereotypes in American politics. Maybe, in a normal year, the "liberal" tag would be hurting Obama, as it tends to hurt most Democratic presidential candidates. Same goes for the "soft-on-terrorists" tag (formerly, the "soft-on-communism" tag). But not this time; indeed, Obama's Florida numbers actually got better after the first presidential debate, despite the fact that McCain tagged him as the most liberal senator. The problem for McCain right now is his party label. When the economy is seriously distressed, voters tend to favor government action, and they view the Democrats as the party of government. That perception was formed during the Hoover-FDR years, and it has persisted ever since. Voters generally don't trust the Republicans to govern wisely during aneconomic crisis; indeed, McCain is also burdened by the record of the Bush administration, which has demonstrated that this generation of Republicans can't even govern competently.

Republicans are stereotypically viewed as the free-market party, and when the markets go seriously awry, Republicans generally suffer. Voters perceive this even without knowing all the supporting evidence, including: GOP activist Grover Norquist's ambition to shrink government and "drown it in the bathtub"; the Reagan administration's decision to relax provisions of the Depression-era federal oversight law that was designed to regulate the big financial firms; the 1999 GOP-sponsored legislation (supported by McCain) that removed the last shackles of that federal oversight, thereby allowing the financial industry's Ponzi schemers to run wild.

And on Monday of this week, we had the House Republican conservatives, behaving like those Japanese soldiers who stayed in the bush to fight another day, refusing to believe that their war was already lost. Granted, the bailout bill had flaws, and the predictably inept Bush administration sold it badly. But two-thirds of the House GOP members voted no primarily in fealty to their outmoded principles, the belief that the government should leave the markets alone. The same principles that got us into trouble were apparently deemed ideal for getting us out.

Ideological rigidity works in tandem with willful amnesia. They seemed incapable of remembering what happened nearly two decades ago, when the savings & loan banking industry collapsed (as a result, naturally, of a deregulation climate). In response, the federal government stepped in, established an agency called the Resolution Trust Corporation, and cleaned up the mess at a taxpayer cost (in today's dollars) of $200 billion. We essentially socialized those bank losses, and we survived.

David Brooks, the New York Times columnist and troubled conservative, said it best yesterday about the House conservatives: "It has been interesting to watch them on their single-minded mission to destroy the Republican party...With this vote, they've taken responsibility for this economy, and they will be held accountable. The short-term blows will fall on John McCain, the long-term stress on the existence of the GOP as we know it...What's sad is that they still think it's 1984. They still think the biggest threat comes from socialism and Walter Mondale liberalism. They seem not to have noticed how global capital flows have transformed our political economy" - and that this new reality requires "the steady and powerful hand of some public institutions."

Some kind of rescue plan is still likely to pass. And regarding the potential long-term political fallout, conservative commentator Ross Douthat writes: "This is still George W. Bush's economy. Republicans who think the public will blame the Democrats, and specifically a President Obama, if the bailout is massively unpopular come 2010 or 2012 are almost certainly kidding themselves. Whether it succeeds or fails, the bailout seems likely to be remembered as the last great fiasco of the Bush Era, not the first big-government fiasco of a new liberal moment, and there's very little the Republicans can do to change this."

The last great fiasco of the Bush era...with similarities to the fiascos of the Hoover era. The national zeitgeist is shifting, and if Obama wins this election, conservatives will be forced to seriously reexamine their precepts. It will no longer be enough to declare hostility to government, or to assume that cutting taxes is a sufficient government action.

As conservative thinker (and former Bush speechwriter) David Frum argues in his new book, "There are things only government can do, and if we conservatives wish to be entrusted with the management of government, we must prove that we care enough about government to manage it well."

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Pazite email koji sam upravo dobio od havera:

Hey peeps, this Thursday is the one and only VP debate. Comedy is upon us as we get to see the Palin in action. We are having a watching party at Bunny's house, which will include us cooking fajitas for everyone. Festivities begin at 7, with the debate starting at 8 me thinks. Let me know if you are coming so we can get the right amount of food stuffs.

mikie

Pravicemo dernek od gledanja politicke debate.

[jeza u ledja]

I jos jedna drzava je danas presla u Obaminu kolumnu - Nevada. Tako da se sad ukupan skor popeo na Obama 353, McCain 185.

[nezavisni]

Ja bas gledam anketu CNN/Time i isto pokazuje Obamin rast, al jos se dosta stvari tu moze promijeniti.
Nego, zapelo mi za oko ovo:
"The poll also expanded to include three third-party candidates: independent candidate Ralph Nader, Libertarian candidate Bob Barr and Green Party candidate Cynthia McKinney. Except for a 3-percent showing by Nader in Florida and a 4-percent showing by Nader in Nevada, no one registered more than 2 percent in any survey."
Koliko se sjecam Demokrati su 2000. optuzivali Nadera da je Goreu pokupio kljucne glasove upravo na Floridi. Bude li tijesno na Floridi, a vjerovatno hoce, mozda bi se i sada moglo desiti nesto slicno.

[jeza u ledja]

Ma znas sta, ako dodje do toga da Obama uzme i Floridu ona u tom slucaju ni nece vise biti bitna. Generalno uvijek je bolje stajao u Ohiu, a pogotovo Virginiji, Coloradu, New Mexicu, Iowi i Nevadi nego na FL, a od ovih pobrojanih dovoljno mu da uzme recimo samo Ohio da bi pobjedio. Tako da FL bi bila samo pride kao slag na tortu.