Ad blocker detected: Our website is made possible by displaying online advertisements to our visitors. Please consider supporting us by disabling your ad blocker on our website.
Evo malo friskiJEh anketa po drzavama, uradjenjim nakon obje konvencije:
Rassmussen je izdao ankete za Ohio, Pennsylvanjiu, Floridu, Virginiju, Colorado, a bice uskoro i za Montanu.
Krenimo od najvece drzave Floride (27 boba):
McCain i Obama su izjednaceni na 48%. U zadnjoj anketi Rasmussena 18 augusta McCain je imao 46%, a Obama 43%. I bez obzira sto se cini da ce Florida najvjerovatnije opet otici Republikancima mislim da je FL i dalje u igri, a ako nju Obama preotme to ce znaciti sigurnu pobjedu.
Pennsylvania (21 boba):
Obama 47%, McCain 45%. Zadnji put je Obama imao 45%, a McCain 40%. Znaci McCain mu se priblizio, ali Obama i dalje vodi.
Ohio (20 boba):
McCain 51%, Obama 44%, zadnji put je McCain imao 45%, a Obama 41%. U svim dosadasnjim anketama Rasmussena McCain je 4-5 boba ispred Obame, ali neke druge ankete su pokazivale da Obama vodi, to ima veze sa nacinom na koji Rass. radi istrazivanje.
Virginia (13 boba):
McCain 49%, Obama 47%. To je prvi put od maja da McCain vodi po Rass. anketama.
Colorado (9 boba):
Obama 49%, McCain 46%. Zadnji put je McCain imao 47%, a Obama 45%, a prije toga je Obama solidno vodio.
Vidjecemo sta kaze jos Montana, ali generalno nista se specijalno nije promjenilo, mada je u nacionalnim anketama McCain/Palin ticket porastao, ali i to se stabilizuje. Cak sta vise, u Coloradu i na Floridi je Obama neutralisao prednost McCaina.
Statisticka greska kod svih ovih anketa je +\- 4.5 procenta. Od svih ovih gore drzava, Obama mora uzeti SAMO Pennsylvaniju i jos jednu drzavu (plus vjerovatne Iowu i New Mexico) da bi pobjedio.
Evo jos malo nekih friskih anketa na nivou pojedinih drzava:
U Michiganu, dvije razlicite ankete pokazuju Obamu na samo +1%.
U Wisconsinu, Obama je na samo +3%.
U Virginiji, jos jedna anketa kao i Rasmussen prikazuje McCaina na +2%.
Na Floridi, Rasmussen je pokazivao bare-bare, ali jedan drugi poll prikazuje McCaina na +5%.
I jos jednom, ankete ne predvidjaju bas najbolje sta ce biti u novembru, ali one jako dobro pokazuju sta bi bilo sada. Kad se sve sabere i oduzme, Obama je i dalje na 273 elektorske bobe, a McCain na 265.
Last edited by jeza u ledja on 09/09/2008 19:40, edited 1 time in total.
Ne znam jeli iko postao ovo pismo sto je izazvalo quite a stir, ili che ga tek izazvati.
Mozda se cheka malo povoljnije vrijeme. Chuo sam manju reportazu o ovome na radiu, a danas sam i dobio lanac (Email).
U glavnom vidi se da je ova zena biased, ali brojke ne lazu. Osvjezavajuche je chuti nesto od lokalnog pucha.
Anne Kilkenny
August 31, 2008
Dear friends,
So many people have asked me about what I know about Sarah Palin in the last 2 days that I decided to write something up...
Basically, Sarah Palin and Hillary Clinton have only 2 things in common: their gender and their good looks.
You have my permission to forward this to your friends/email contacts with my name and email address attached, but
please do not post it on any websites, as there are too many kooks out there . . .
Thanks, Anne
ABOUT SARAH PALIN
I am a resident of Wasilla, Alaska. I have known Sarah since 1992.
Everyone here knows Sarah, so it is nothing special to say we are on a first-name basis. Our children have attended the same schools.
Her father was my child’s favorite substitute teacher. I also am on a first name basis with her parents and mother-in-law. I attended more City Council meetings during her administration than about 99% of the residents of the city. She is enormously popular; in every way she’s like the most popular girl in middle school. Even men who think she is a poor choice and won’t vote for her can’t quit smiling when talking about her because she is a “babe”.
It is astonishing and almost scary how well she can keep a secret. She kept her most recent pregnancy a secret from her children and parents for seven months. She is “pro-life”. She recently gave birth to a Down’s syndrome baby. There is no cover-up involved, here; Trig is her baby. She is energetic and hardworking. She regularly worked out at the gym. She is savvy. She doesn’t take positions; she just “puts things out there” and if they prove to be popular, then she takes credit. Her husband works a union job on the North Slope for BP and is a champion snowmobile racer. Todd Palin’s kind of job is highly sought-after because of the schedule and high pay. He arranges his work schedule so he can fish for salmon in Bristol Bay for a month or so in summer, but by no stretch of the imagination is fishing their major source of income. Nor has her life-style ever been anything like that of native Alaskans. Sarah and her whole family are avid hunters. She’s smart. Her experience is as mayor of a city with a population of about 5,000 (at the time), and less than 2 years as governor of a state with about 670,000 residents. During her mayoral administration most of the klix work of running this small city was turned over to an administrator. She had been pushed to hire this administrator by party power-brokers after she had gotten herself into some trouble over precipitous firings which had given rise to a recall campaign. Sarah campaigned in Wasilla as a “fiscal conservative”. During her 6 years as Mayor, she increased general government expenditures by over 33%. During those same 6 years the amount of taxes collected by the City increased by 38%. This was during a period of low inflation (1996-2002). She reduced progressiveproperty taxes and increased a regressive sales tax which taxed even food. The tax cuts that she promoted benefited large corporate property owners way more than they benefited residents. The huge increases in tax revenues during her mayoral administration weren’t enough to fund everythingon her wish list though, borrowed money was needed, too. She inherited a city with zero debt, but left it with indebtedness of over $22 million. What did Mayor Palin encourage the voters to borrow money for? Was it the infrastructure that she said she supported? The sewage treatment plant that the city lacked? Or a new library? No. $1m for a park. $15m-plus for construction of a multi-usesports complex which she rushed through to build on a piece of property that the City didn’t even have clear title to, that was still in litigation 7 yrs later--to the delight of the lawyers involved! The sports complex itself is a nice addition to the community but a huge money pit, not the profit-generator she claimed it would be.She also supported bonds for $5.5m for road projects that could have been done in 5-7 yrs without any borrowing. While Mayor, City Hall was extensively remodeled and her office redecorated more than once.
These are small numbers, but Wasilla is a very small city.
As an oil producer, the high price of oil has created a budget
surplus in Alaska. Rather than invest this surplus in technology
that will make us energy independent and increase efficiency, as
Governor she proposed distribution of this surplus to every
individual in the state.
In this time of record state revenues and budget
surpluses, she
recommended that the state borrow/bond for road
projects, even
while she proposed distribution of surplus state
revenues: spend
today’s surplus, borrow for needs.
She’s not very tolerant of divergent opinions or
open to outside
ideas or compromise. As Mayor, she fought ideas that weren’t
generated by her or her staff. Ideas weren’t
evaluated on their
merits, but on the basis of who proposed them.
While Sarah was Mayor of Wasilla she tried to fire our highly
respected City Librarian because the Librarian refused to consider
removing from the library some books that Sarah wanted removed.
City residents rallied to the defense of the City
Librarian and
against Palin’s attempt at out-and-out censorship,
so Palin backed
down and withdrew her termination letter. People who fought her
attempt to oust the Librarian are on her enemies list to this day.
Sarah complained about the “old boy’s
club” when she first ran for
Mayor, so what did she bring Wasilla? A new set of “old boys”.
Palin fired most of the experienced staff she
inherited. At the
City and as Governor she hired or elevated new,
inexperienced,
obscure people, creating a staff totally dependent on her for their
jobs and eternally grateful and fiercely loyal--loyal to the point
of abusing their power to further her personal agenda, as she has
acknowledged happened in the case of pressuring the State’s top cop
(see below).
As Mayor, Sarah fired Wasilla’s Police Chief
because he
“intimidated” her, she told the press. As
Governor, her recent
firing of Alaska’s top cop has the ring of
familiarity about it. He
served at her pleasure and she had every legal right to fire him,
but it’s pretty clear that an important factor in
her decision to
fire him was because he wouldn’t fire her
sister’s ex-husband, a
State Trooper. Under investigation for abuse of power, she has had
to admit that more than 2 dozen contacts were made between her
staff and family to the person that she later fired,
pressuring him
to fire her ex-brother-in-law. She tried to replace
the man she
fired with a man who she knew had been reprimanded for sexual
harassment; when this caused a public furor, she
withdrew her support.
She has bitten the hand of every person who extended theirs to her
in help. The City Council person who personally
escorted her around
town introducing her to voters when she first ran for Wasilla City
Council became one of her first targets when she was later elected
Mayor. She abruptly fired her loyal City
Administrator; even people
who didn’t like the guy were stunned by this
ruthlessness.
Fear of retribution has kept all of these people from saying
anything publicly about her.
When then-Governor Murkowski was handing out political plums, Sarah
got the best, Chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas
Conservation
Commission: one of the few jobs not in Juneau and one of the best
paid. She had no background in oil & gas issues.
Within months of
scoring this great job which paid $122,400/yr, she was complaining
in the press about the high salary. I was told that
she hated that
job: the commute, the structured hours, the work.
Sarah became
aware that a member of this Commission (who was also the State
Chair of the Republican Party) engaged in unethical behavior on the
job. In a gutsy move which some undoubtedly cautioned her could be
political suicide, Sarah solved all her problems in
one fell swoop:
got out of the job she hated and garnered gobs of
media attention
as the patron saint of ethics and as a gutsy fighter
against the
“old boys’ club” when she dramatically
quit, exposing this man’s
ethics violations (for which he was fined).
As Mayor, she had her hand stuck out as far as anyone for pork from
Senator Ted Stevens. Lately, she has castigated his pork-barrel
politics and publicly humiliated him. She only opposed the “bridge
to nowhere” after it became clear that it would
be unwise not to.
As Governor, she gave the Legislature no direction and budget
guidelines, then made a big grandstand display of
line-item vetoing
projects, calling them pork. Public outcry and further legislative
action restored most of these projects--which had been vetoed
simply because she was not aware of their
importance--but with the
unobservant she had gained a reputation as
“anti-pork”.
She is solidly Republican: no political maverick. The State party
leaders hate her because she has bit them in the back and
humiliated them. Other members of the party object to her self-
description as a fiscal conservative.
Around Wasilla there are people who went to high school with Sarah.
They call her “Sarah Barracuda” because of
her unbridled ambition
and predatory ruthlessness. Before she became so
powerful, very
ugly stories circulated around town about shenanigans she pulled to
be made point guard on the high school basketball team. When
Sarah’s mother-in-law, a highly respected member of the community
and experienced manager, ran for Mayor, Sarah refused to endorse her.
As Governor, she stepped outside of the box and put together of
package of legislation known as “AGIA” that
forced the oil
companies to march to the beat of her drum.
Like most Alaskans, she favors drilling in the Arctic National
Wildlife Refuge. She has questioned if the loss of sea ice is
linked to global warming. She campaigned “as a
private citizen”
against a state initiaitive that would have either a)
protected
salmon streams from pollution from mines, or b) tied up in the
courts all mining in the state (depending on who you listen to).
She has pushed the State’s lawsuit against the
Dept. Of the
Interior’s decision to list polar bears as
threatened species.
McCain is the oldest person to ever run for President; Sarah will
be a heartbeat away from being President.
There has to be literally millions of Americans who are more
knowledgeable and experienced than she.
However, there’s a lot of people who have
underestimated her and
are regretting it.
CLAIM VS FACT
*”Hockey mom”: true for a few years.
*”PTA mom”: true years ago when her
first-born was in elementary
school, not since.
*”NRA supporter”: absolutely true
*social conservative: mixed. Opposes gay marriage, BUT vetoed a
bill that would have denied benefits to employees in same-sex
relationships (said she did this because it was
unconsitutional).
*pro-creationism: mixed. Supports it, BUT did nothing as Governor
to promote it.
*”Pro-life”: mixed. Knowingly gave birth to
a Down’s syndrome baby
BUT declined to call a special legislative session on some pro-life
legislation
*”Experienced”: Some high schools have more
students than Wasilla
has residents. Many cities have more residents than the state of
Alaska. No legislative experience other than City
Council. Little
hands-on supervisory or managerial experience; needed help of a
city administrator to run town of about 5,000.
*political maverick: not at all
*gutsy: absolutely!
*open & transparent: ??? Good at keeping secrets.
Not good at
explaining actions.
*has a developed philosophy of public policy: no
*”a Greenie”: no. Turned Wasilla into a
wasteland of big box stores
and disconnected parking lots. Is pro-drilling
off-shore and in ANWR.
*fiscal conservative: not by my definition!
*pro-infrastructure: No. Promoted a sports complex and park in a
city without a sewage treatment plant or storm
drainage system.
Built streets to early 20th century standards.
*pro-tax relief: Lowered taxes for businesses,
increased tax burden
on residents
*pro-small government: No. Oversaw greatest expansion of city
government in Wasilla’s history.
*pro-labor/pro-union. No. Just because her husband works union
doesn’t make her pro-labor. I have seen nothing to support any
claim that she is pro-labor/pro-union.
WHY AM I WRITING THIS?
First, I have long believed in the importance of being an informed
voter. I am a voter registrar. For 10 years I put on
student voting
programs in the schools. If you google my name (Anne Kilkenny +
Alaska), you will find references to my participation in local
government, education, and PTA/parent organizations.
Secondly, I’ve always operated in the belief that
“Bad things
happen when good people stay silent”. Few people know as much as I
do because few have gone to as many City Council meetings.
Third, I am just a housewife. I don’t have a job
she can bump me
out of. I don’t belong to any organization that
she can hurt. But,
I am no fool; she is immensely popular here, and it is likely that
this will cost me somehow in the future: that’s
life.
Fourth, she has hated me since back in 1996, when I was one of the
100 or so people who rallied to support the City
Librarian against
Sarah’s attempt at censorship.
Fifth, I looked around and realized that everybody
else was afraid
to say anything because they were somehow vulnerable.
CAVEATS
I am not a statistician. I developed the numbers for the increase
in spending & taxation 2 years ago (when Palin was running for
Governor) from information supplied to me by the Finance Director
of the City of Wasilla, and I can’t recall exactly
what I adjusted
for: did I adjust for inflation? For population
increases? Right
now, it is impossible for a private person to get any info out of
City Hall--they are swamped. So I can’t verify my numbers.
You may have noticed that there are various numbers circulating for
the population of Wasilla, ranging from my “about 5,000”, up to
9,000. The day Palin’s selection was announced a
city official told
me that the current population is about 7,000. The official 2000
census count was 5,460. I have used about 5,000
because Palin was
Mayor from 1996 to 2002, and the city was growing rapidly in the
mid-90’s.
Anne Kilkenny
August 31, 2008
Last edited by ahuseino on 10/09/2008 21:24, edited 1 time in total.
The world's verdict will be harsh if the US rejects the man it yearns for Jonathan Freedland, The Guardian, Wednesday September 10 2008
The feeling is familiar. I had it four years ago and four years before that: a sinking feeling in the stomach. It's a kind of physical pessimism which says: "It's happening again. The Democrats are about to lose an election they should win - and it could not matter more."
In my head, I'm not as anxious for Barack Obama's chances as I was for John Kerry's in 2004 or Al Gore's in 2000. He is a better candidate than both put together, and all the empirical evidence says this year favours Democrats more than any since 1976. But still, I can't shake off the gloom.
Look at yesterday's opinion polls, which have John McCain either in a dead heat with Obama or narrowly ahead. Given the well-documented tendency of African-American candidates to perform better in polls than in elections - thanks to people who say they will vote for a black man but don't - this suggests Obama is now trailing badly. More troubling was the ABC News-Washington Post survey which found McCain ahead among white women by 53% to 41%. Two weeks ago, Obama had a 15% lead among women. There is only one explanation for that turnaround, and it was not McCain's tranquilliser of a convention speech: Obama's lead has been crushed by the Palin bounce.
So you can understand my pessimism. But it's now combined with a rising frustration. I watch as the Democrats stumble, uncertain how to take on Sarah Palin. Fight too hard, and the Republican machine, echoed by the ditto-heads in the conservative commentariat on talk radio and cable TV, will brand Democrats sexist, elitist snobs, patronising a small-town woman. Do nothing, and Palin's rise will continue unchecked, her novelty making even Obama look stale, her star power energising and motivating the Republican base.
So somehow Palin slips out of reach, no revelation - no matter how jaw-dropping or career-ending were it applied to a normal candidate - doing sufficient damage to slow her apparent march to power, dragging the charisma-deprived McCain behind her.
We know one of Palin's first acts as mayor of klix Wasilla, Alaska was to ask the librarian the procedure for banning books. Oh, but that was a "rhetorical" question, says the McCain-Palin campaign. We know Palin is not telling the truth when she says she was against the notorious $400m "Bridge to Nowhere" project in Alaska - in fact, she campaigned for it - but she keeps repeating the claim anyway. She denounces the dipping of snouts in the Washington trough - but hired costly lobbyists to make sure Alaska got a bigger helping of federal dollars than any other state.
She claims to be a fiscal conservative, but left Wasilla saddled with debts it had never had before. She even seems to have claimed "per diem" allowances - taxpayers' money meant for out-of-town travel - when she was staying in her own house.
Yet somehow none of this is yet leaving a dent. The result is that a politician who conservative blogger Andrew Sullivan calls a "Christianist" - seeking to politicise Christianity the way Islamists politicise Islam - could soon be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Remember, this is a woman who once addressed a church congregation, saying of her work as governor - transport, policing and education - "really all of that stuff doesn't do any good if the people of Alaska's heart isn't right with God".
If Sarah Palin defies the conventional wisdom that says elections are determined by the top of the ticket, and somehow wins this for McCain, what will be the reaction? Yes, blue-state America will go into mourning once again, feeling estranged in its own country. A generation of young Americans - who back Obama in big numbers - will turn cynical, concluding that politics doesn't work after all. And, most depressing, many African-Americans will decide that if even Barack Obama - with all his conspicuous gifts - could not win, then no black man can ever be elected president.
But what of the rest of the world? This is the reaction I fear most. For Obama has stirred an excitement around the globe unmatched by any American politician in living memory. Polling in Germany, France, Britain and Russia shows that Obama would win by whopping majorities, with the pattern repeated in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. If November 4 were a global ballot, Obama would win it handsomely. If the free world could choose its leader, it would be Barack Obama.
The crowd of 200,000 that rallied to hear him in Berlin in July did so not only because of his charisma, but also because they know he, like the majority of the world's population, opposed the Iraq war. McCain supported it, peddling the lie that Saddam was linked to 9/11. Non-Americans sense that Obama will not ride roughshod over the international system but will treat alliances and global institutions seriously: McCain wants to bypass the United Nations in favour of a US-friendly League of Democracies. McCain might talk a good game on climate change, but a repeated floor chant at the Republican convention was "Drill, baby, drill!", as if the solution to global warming were not a radical rethink of the US's entire energy system but more offshore oil rigs.
If Americans choose McCain, they will be turning their back on the rest of the world, choosing to show us four more years of the Bush-Cheney finger. And I predict a deeply unpleasant shift.
Until now, anti-Americanism has been exaggerated and much misunderstood: outside a leftist hardcore, it has mostly been anti-Bushism, opposition to this specific administration. But if McCain wins in November, that might well change. Suddenly Europeans and others will conclude that their dispute is with not only one ruling clique, but Americans themselves. For it will have been the American people, not the politicians, who will have passed up a once-in-a-generation chance for a fresh start - a fresh start the world is yearning for.
And the manner of that decision will matter, too. If it is deemed to have been about race - that Obama was rejected because of his colour - the world's verdict will be harsh. In that circumstance, Slate's Jacob Weisberg wrote recently, international opinion would conclude that "the United States had its day, but in the end couldn't put its own self-interest ahead of its crazy irrationality over race".
Even if it's not ethnic prejudice, but some other aspect of the culture wars, that proves decisive, the point still holds. For America to make a decision as grave as this one - while the planet boils and with the US fighting two wars - on the trivial basis that a hockey mom is likable and seems down to earth, would be to convey a lack of seriousness, a fleeing from reality, that does indeed suggest a nation in, to quote Weisberg, "historical decline". Let's not forget, McCain's campaign manager boasts that this election is "not about the issues."
Of course I know that even to mention Obama's support around the world is to hurt him. Incredibly, that large Berlin crowd damaged Obama at home, branding him the "candidate of Europe" and making him seem less of a patriotic American. But what does that say about today's America, that the world's esteem is now unwanted? If Americans reject Obama, they will be sending the clearest possible message to the rest of us - and, make no mistake, we shall hear it
sve je receno u prvom pasusu ovog napisa u gurdianu. bit ce isto kao 2000 i 2004.
husu vec udaraju sa svih strana i stavljaju mu rijeci u usta, pada na poll-ovima, pa ce ispasti na kraju da je ekstremniji lik od palinove i mccaina, sto kombinovano sa prekomjernim pigmentom vodi u siguran poraz.
ali barem ce zivu glavu izvuci, nije ni svjestan da mu poraz spasava zivot.
Odlican clanak!
Mada... vise namijenjen Obama supportersima u Europi, sumnjam da ce doci do uha amerikanaca/ki i da, ako i dodje, bolit ce ih--- nesto za misljenje "stare kurve Europe".
Ono sto mene zanima jeste, sta je to, osim Palinove, sto je toliko dalo zamaha McCain-u?
Ja licno imam utisak da nije do republikanaca/ki, vec da je demokratski stab izgubio na svom zamahu, provokativnosti i da se Obamina kampanja prilicno promijenila. Da ne kazem smirila - uljuljala.
Nekako...kao da su poceli sabirati i oduzimati, procjenjivati, i time izgubili na onom "drugaciji" za sto su se amerikanci/ke na pocetku "zalijepili". Mislim da su postali vise politicari nego mesije, i da im se sad to obija o glavu.
A samim tim kako Guardijan pise, i svima nama.
Zaista, bas me zanima sta "prosjecan amerikanac/ka" vidi u Mccainu i zasto "odustaje" od Obame...
JThomas wrote:mislim da bi manje-više svako ko je postao na ovoj temi bio kvalifikovaniji da vodi jednu naciju od "te" žene.
ako odaberu njih, oni su gori i od nas u bosni.
Da da
svi smo mi bar po jednom bili predsjednici opstine kalesija i guverneri gorazdanskog kantona ..... naravno da smo kvalificiraniji.
U naprdjivanju nas pravo ide.
Obama je sasro sam sebe kad je onu vostanu figuru izabrao za VP.
Kakva li je on `promjena` i sta su njegovi zivotni uspjesi .
Obama je regularno izgubio zadnjih xy prajmeriz , taj mu se trend nastavlja.
Nije mi zao obame k`o sto mi je zao one dvojice sa MSNBC... Zalosno je sto su leftashi postali radikalniji od desnih....
Inache amerika je konzervativna zemlja (osim LA, NY , chicago) .
Sve u svemu za obamu glasaju Afroameri 100% , stranci( prva generacija) i oni koji bezgranicno mrze busha.
Jah josh ih je strah da opet budu rasisti pa su u svim poolovima za njega a na glasanju za hilku
Uzbudjenje koje je nastalo nakon izabiranja Palinove i nakon konvencije Republikanaca je splasnulo. Vodjstvo koje su McCain/Palin imali zadnje dvije sedmice se istopilo i trka se vratila na bare-bare. McCain je u 'anketama anketa' imao prednost u jednom trenutku i do 3%, medjutim danas je ono samo 0.6%. Gallup poll danas prvi put nakon dvije sedmice pokazuje Obamu ponovo u prednosti 47% - 45%.
McCain je samo prije 8 dana uzivao prednost od cak 5% u Gallup pollu, tako da je Obama skocio ukupno za cak 7% od tada.
Interesantno, za svo ovo vrijeme broj elektorskih glasova, odnosno drzava u kojim Obama ima prednost ostao prakticno isti, mada je McCain u gotovo svim drzavama zabiljezio porast. Medjutim, rast na nacionalnom nivou je nastao najvise od budjenja konzervativaca, i to u tradicionalno republikanskim drzavama. Tako je u drzavama za koje se vjerovalo da Obama mozda ima neke sanse (North Carolina, Georgia, Alaska i Montana) McCain/Palin ticket zabiljezio veliki porast, dok je u ovim 'battleground states' Ohiu i Floridi izbio znacajno ispred Obame, a u drzavama koje Obama mora uzeti, Pennsylvania, Michigan i Minnesota McCain maltene dostigao Obamu. Medjutim, nedovoljno da se ukupna slika promjeni. U medjuvremenu, Obama je zadrzao isti broj boba u 'crvenim' drzavama Coloradu, Iowi, Virginiji, New Mexicu, Nevadi.
Dugo vremena je odnos elektorskih boba bio 273-265 za Obamu, tako je bilo i prije konvencija. Medjutim, danas po prvi put nakon mjesec i vise dana, i nakon svog ovog silnog rasta McCaina, Obama cak poveo u Virginiji, pa je odnos boba sada 286-252 (interesantno, identican odnos boba kao 2004 Bush vs. Kerry, samo obrnuto). Tako Obama i dalje vodi u svim Kerry drzavama, plus Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico i Virginia. On dakle moze pobjediti i bez Ohia i Floride. U igri je jos i Nevada.
Sad, postavlja se pitanje, da li je ovo vrhunac prednosti koje je mogao napraviti McCain? Tesko da ce popularnost Palinove ikad biti veca od one koje je bila u zadnje dvije sedmice. U odsustvu nekih velikih turbulencija (mada doduse siguran sam da ce ih biti), Obama je na dobroj poziciji 6 sedmica prije izbora.
Ipak sam izgledao bio u pravu da je izbor Palinove los potez po McCaina. Vidjecemo. Sljedeci petak, 26.9 je prva predsjednicka debata (od tri, i jedne podpredsjednicke).
PS: Juce su dionice na Wall Streetu pale za najveci iznos jos od 9/11, pretpostavljam da ce to pomoci Obami u prikupljanju kojeg poena, mada je njegov rast u anketama poceo jos prije 4-5 dana.
Naravno da mu je ova kriza pomogla. Bio bih jako iznenadjen da pollovi to ne pokazu. Njegov response je bio jedno 500 puta bolji, pametniji i kredibilniji.
Dedo lupa po jednom te istom kao i Bush, kao fundamentali ekonomije su cvrsti, samo je challenging time.
... poslije se ispravljao da je mislio na 'jakog americknog radnika'... Slichne komentare je objavljivao u svezi s Obaminim celebrity statusom te sa B. Streisand fund raiser za Obamu; kaze dedo: "ja bih radije bio ovdje medju radnicima..."
Jadan mi je, i nemam rijechi. Ja sam ga bas cijenio (Johna) kao covjeka sa integritetom, ali mi se sad srozao pravo... ko kurva se prodaje...
Pomaze Obami kriza, ali je i bez toga imao uzlaznu putanju zadnjih 7 dana. Ako je na Gallupu za jedan dan skocio 3% (zbog jucerasnjih vijesti), to znaci da ce sutra biti na mozda +5%, jer Gallup prati trodnevni trend.
JThomas wrote:ne znam, vjerujem da su svi ovdje bar bili izvan svoje zemlje prije četrdesete.
i da znate svi bar otprilike, iz glave, šta su dužnosti vicepredsjednika...što je već više nego što se može reći za sarah palin.
Duznosti VP su vise proceduralne. Medjutim, on/a mora biti savrseno spreman da obnasa duznost predsjednika. To je pogotovo vazno u slucaju McCaina, koji bi bio najstariji predsjednik u svom prvom mandatu u 200 i kusur godina od kad se bira isti. Objektivno, pogotovo sa historijom oboljenja od raka, McCain moze preseliti na ahiret u toku svog mozebitnog prvog mandata.
Zato je izabiranje Palinove kao kandidata za VP strahovito opasno i pokazuje da McCain stavlja svoju pobjedu na izborima ispred zemlje.
parafraziram, žena je na upit u stilu, kako ćete pomiriti porodične obaveze sa pozicijom vicepredsjednika ako budete izabrani, odgovorila u stilu, moram prvo vidjeti kakve su to dužnosti.
dno, talog...ne znam kako bih rekao. oživotvoreni stereotip o glupom amerikancu...i baš će zato i glasati za nju, što u njoj vide sebe.
JThomas wrote:parafraziram, žena je na upit u stilu, kako ćete pomiriti porodične obaveze sa pozicijom vicepredsjednika ako budete izabrani, odgovorila u stilu, moram prvo vidjeti kakve su to dužnosti.
Ovo je pitanje malo seksisticko. Ne bi nikad pitali tako nesto muskarca.
Update: Virginia se vec vratila u McCainovu kolumnu, zbog nekog glupog CNU Virginia(?!) polla koji pokazuje McCaina sa cak +9%. Druga tri polla (sva tri uradjena 9/14) pokazuju Obamu na +4% (SurveyUSA), +2% (PPP) i +/- 0% (Fox News/Rasmussen).
Elektorski skor se opet vratio na 273 Obama, 265 McCain. Uzbudljivo.
Last edited by jeza u ledja on 17/09/2008 22:33, edited 1 time in total.
JThomas wrote:parafraziram, žena je na upit u stilu, kako ćete pomiriti porodične obaveze sa pozicijom vicepredsjednika ako budete izabrani, odgovorila u stilu, moram prvo vidjeti kakve su to dužnosti.
Ovo je pitanje malo seksisticko. Ne bi nikad pitali tako nesto muskarca.
Jel' ove ankete uključuju samo registrovane pripadnike partije? Republikanci su fanataci po tom pitanju, tako da ankete ništa ne znače. Presudiče ljudi koji prvi puta glasaju i omladina, a mislim da Obama ima veču podršku te skupine.
Sretno Obami jer iako ne poznajem najbolje situaciju posmatrajuči iz BiH mislim da je bolji izbor za ostatak svijeta jer bi McCain bio samo nastavak dosadašnje administracije koja je bila očajna zadnjih 8 godina.
Mozda zato sto mu nije cilj victory at all cost? Kao sto je McCainu ili Clintonovim.
...od roda dobra... 
. 
