#20576 Re: Novi korona virus - velika opasnost ili ne ? POGLEDATI PRVI POST!
Posted: 18/04/2020 01:49
Pa jednostavo u KINI virus se širio bez ikakvih kontrola i mjera opreza od NOVEMBRA, cijeli DECEMBAR i onda do 20. JANUARA...index_box wrote: ↑18/04/2020 01:23Hajde da prihvatimo tu brojku od 2.4% ljudi koji imaju antitijela kao referentnu i da je najprostije primijenimo na populaciji grada Wuhana. U gradu od 11 miliona ljudi, to bi značilo da je više od 260 hiljada ljudi oboljelo od virusa Covid-19. Kineske vlasti zvanično navode (do ovog trenutka) brojku od 82.692 oboljela na teritoriji cijele Kine. Po pitanju matematike sam laik, ali bar toliko znam da vidim kako nešto nije u redu s podacima.daddy-kool wrote: ↑18/04/2020 00:40 https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-star ... 1587039175
Wuhan Tests Show Coronavirus ‘Herd Immunity’ Is a Long Way Off
Checks among thousands returning to work, and others without symptoms, aim to prevent second wave of disease in Chinese city
The good news is that the proportion of people with antibodies is considerably higher than that of confirmed cases, suggesting many people here were infected without realizing it, developed mild or no symptoms, and could now be immune.
The bad news is that the number of those with antibodies still falls far short of “herd immunity”—levels above 50% typically needed for the virus to die out. And there could still be thousands of unidentified asymptomatic cases in the city of 11 million, the results suggest.
Wuhan’s Zhongnan Hospital found that 2.4% of its employees and 2% to 3% of recent patients and other visitors, including people tested before returning to work, had developed antibodies, according to senior doctors there.
“This is a long way from herd immunity,” said Wang Xinghuan, the head of Zhongnan hospital, one of the city’s largest. “So a vaccine may be our last hope.”
Until a vaccine is developed, he and other doctors warned, many social-distancing and other restrictions would have to remain in place in Wuhan, even though a 76-day lockdown technically came to an end last Wednesday.
Imajući na umu koliko lažu i koliko su lažirali sve brojke dosad, sve ove podatke iz Kine i kineskih ispitivanja treba uzeti s rezervom. Pogotovo imajući na umu da je ovo ispitivanje izvršeno u jednoj jedinoj bolnici.
S druge strane, ne mogu a ne primijetiti odsustvo bilo kakve logike kada se pominje kolektivni imunitet.
Kako ćete postići kolektivni imunitet ako većina stanovnika sjedi kući dva i po mjeseca iza zavarenih vrata?!![]()
Bit će da je do mene.
Dakle minimalno 2 mjeseca se virus slobodno širio u izuzeto gusto naseljenom gradu, a i u cijeloj Kini...
Naravno da je nemoguce da se virus siri tako slobodno tako dugo i da bude samo 80 i kusur hiljada zarazenih...
Ova masovna testiranja su sigurno pocela na vrhuncu virusa...
Ova statistika koju pratimo je naravno 100% netacna jer pokazuje pozitivne testove od ljudi koje su testirali i koje su ŽELJELI da testiraju... Puno više je stvarno zaraženih...
