Ne tako davno su ciljano (radi jačanja izvozne konkurentnosti) obezvrijedili svoju valutu. Mislim, da te srce ukine. Mislim da još nije njihovo vrijeme, iako... Ma da: Kanađani, Australci, Juani, Dinari (Krokodajl wrote:Nemoj zaboraviti Kineski juan, i to ti govorim bez zafrkancije
)...
Apsolutno. To je vec dugorocna investicija, na 10-20-30 godina.Krokodajl wrote:Nemoj zaboraviti Kineski juan, i to ti govorim bez zafrkancijeKikibombona wrote:Japanci i Australci zakon, oni su daleko od svjetskog sranja. Dakle, australski dolar i japanski jen - sigurica.Challenger_ wrote:
Zahvaljujem.
Da, znam da je Marka vezana za Euro a mislim da će i on biti na udaru. Osim Švajcaraca ne pada mi na pamet ni jedna druga valuta pa ne znam kako bi izgledala "košara sa više jaja".
Ako padne euro - pada i franak.
Juan je prije par godina postao "reserve currency" i to nije mala stvar, a Kineske investicije po Africi su dugoročna stvar, možda je ljudima danas smješno, ali doći će i Kinesko vrijeme, njihovo "ne uplitanje" u svjetske sukobe je isto tako jasna poruka da Kinez neće da bude "kontra Americi", tj tzv. "Ruska sfera interesa" ili kako to neki zovu "anti globalizacija", Kinez hoće da bude Kinez, a sve što rade, rade na duge staze, možda ne za 5 - 10 godina, ali za max 50 godina sve što rade po ovim zemljama trećeg svijeta će doći na naplatu, a tada će mnogi Kineski juan u "slamarici" držati.Challenger_ wrote:Ne tako davno su ciljano (radi jačanja izvozne konkurentnosti) obezvrijedili svoju valutu. Mislim, da te srce ukine. Mislim da još nije njihovo vrijeme, iako... Ma da: Kanađani, Australci, Juani, Dinari (Krokodajl wrote:Nemoj zaboraviti Kineski juan, i to ti govorim bez zafrkancije
I dodje veci kabadahija(USA) i opali im samarcinuKikibombona wrote:Apsolutno. To je vec dugorocna investicija, na 10-20-30 godina.Krokodajl wrote:Nemoj zaboraviti Kineski juan, i to ti govorim bez zafrkancijeKikibombona wrote:
Japanci i Australci zakon, oni su daleko od svjetskog sranja. Dakle, australski dolar i japanski jen - sigurica.
Ako padne euro - pada i franak.
Kinezi mudro gledaju kako se krve svi medjusobno. Oni vjecito suzdrzani. Cekaju svoj trenutak kada ce reci: 'dosta, majku vam, sada smo mi glavni'.
I’m an investor. He’s not wrong. The market had been dumping liras for months without any real fundamental reason. It’s all spurious political reasons. The Turkish private sector has large dollar-denominated bond exposure and liens are paid in dollars— so Turkish payments have increased by 500% & 600% as the USD:TRY increases to 1:5 and to 1:6.
Turkish minister of finance is being painted as a playboy son of the President. That’s absurd. Dude was a successful CEO of Calik Holding and built the Baku-Ceylan pipeline and was a self made billionaire. He met Erdogan’s daughter while both were getting their PhDs at UC Berkeley but the news media doesn’t mention this for some reason.
If a concerted effort to sell liras commences, the lira will drop. That’s economics 101. The lira is being sold by speculative investors in the West.
This is not like the 1997 Thai or 1998 Russian crises though some similarities exist. The difference is that Turkish economy grows well and has amazing fundamentals. There is also no massive leveraged derivatives market or situation with toxic assets in Turkey. They can’t find enough money to fund legitimate business growth because there is an informal banking embargo on them ever since they cracked down on PKK/YPG/Gulen and began opposing the US/EU in Syria.
The biggest issue is the exchange rate and foreign currency denominated debt. The debt is held by private sector and not the public sector.
The market wanted him to raise interest rates but raising rates would slow growth. This was difficult to justify when growth was hitting 12% a year and firing on all cylinders ... healthy growth. Despite this they have raised rates to 15% already but with no corresponding correction. The Turks feel that the sell off of liras on the basis of “political differences” while pretending that problems exist on fundamentals is insincere and reflects an economic war attempting to bring Turkey to the point of requiring official foreign economic intervention as in the IMF crisis of 1999. The Turks believe this would prevent them from practicing independent foreign policy in their region and US/EU’s real problem with Turkey is this.
This situation shows the problem of allowing forex-denominated bond issuance to grow too big. Financial regulation could prevent it. As could fair loans being found through more neutral parties (China, Japan).
The solution being proposed by the Turkish government is to reduce growth projections from 8-11% this year to 3-4%... directing private sector to make loan payments/pay off entirely rather than invest in growth... to radically reduce the Already small government expenditures (major criticism of Turkish Left over the last fifteen years is the social welfare state being dismantled), to seek loans priced in fundamental analysis (no le human rights) from China possibly in exchange for helping them with Uygur Turks (who are under the influence of USA and Saudi Arabia at the moment) or One Belt (the major artery of which will pass through Turkey). If they can get loans from Japan (whose banks have major experience in Turkey and have made profitable loans to Turks before and who are seeing positive growth this quarter... ) or U.K. (who is looking to reviving Turkish-British strategic cooperation in a post brexit era).... they will have no problems.
The 1974 Embargo and crisis was far worse than this and people largely tolerated it because it was determined to be worth it to intervene in Cyprus (to protect Turkish civilians from the Turk POV). I doubt a popular uprising against Erdogan as a result, as happened to Suharto in 1999 for example. Primarily because Turks are entirely supportive of the rift-causing policies and understand economic conflicts better than most due to domestic political culture and discourse heavily featuring discussions of their recent economic history and geopolitics. The 2001 crisis was bad but exacerbated by coalition politics and media shitshow (PM and President publicly assaulted each other and the PM Ecevit held a news conference about it, numerous major leaks of government financial reports before the Ministers in charge even saw it, etc.). Turkey has changed a lot since 2001, mostly becoming more stable in the political realm— the administrative and political elite are not at each other’s throats as in 2001 and are mostly aligned.
Eat some popcorn. Let’s see what happens.
Turski ministar financija nije uopće studirao na UC Berkeleyu.daddy-kool wrote:https://www.reddit.com/r/geopolitics/co ... on/e40rrmb
I’m an investor. He’s not wrong. The market had been dumping liras for months without any real fundamental reason. It’s all spurious political reasons. The Turkish private sector has large dollar-denominated bond exposure and liens are paid in dollars— so Turkish payments have increased by 500% & 600% as the USD:TRY increases to 1:5 and to 1:6.
Turkish minister of finance is being painted as a playboy son of the President. That’s absurd. Dude was a successful CEO of Calik Holding and built the Baku-Ceylan pipeline and was a self made billionaire. He met Erdogan’s daughter while both were getting their PhDs at UC Berkeley but the news media doesn’t mention this for some reason.
If a concerted effort to sell liras commences, the lira will drop. That’s economics 101. The lira is being sold by speculative investors in the West.
This is not like the 1997 Thai or 1998 Russian crises though some similarities exist. The difference is that Turkish economy grows well and has amazing fundamentals. There is also no massive leveraged derivatives market or situation with toxic assets in Turkey. They can’t find enough money to fund legitimate business growth because there is an informal banking embargo on them ever since they cracked down on PKK/YPG/Gulen and began opposing the US/EU in Syria.
The biggest issue is the exchange rate and foreign currency denominated debt. The debt is held by private sector and not the public sector.
The market wanted him to raise interest rates but raising rates would slow growth. This was difficult to justify when growth was hitting 12% a year and firing on all cylinders ... healthy growth. Despite this they have raised rates to 15% already but with no corresponding correction. The Turks feel that the sell off of liras on the basis of “political differences” while pretending that problems exist on fundamentals is insincere and reflects an economic war attempting to bring Turkey to the point of requiring official foreign economic intervention as in the IMF crisis of 1999. The Turks believe this would prevent them from practicing independent foreign policy in their region and US/EU’s real problem with Turkey is this.
This situation shows the problem of allowing forex-denominated bond issuance to grow too big. Financial regulation could prevent it. As could fair loans being found through more neutral parties (China, Japan).
The solution being proposed by the Turkish government is to reduce growth projections from 8-11% this year to 3-4%... directing private sector to make loan payments/pay off entirely rather than invest in growth... to radically reduce the Already small government expenditures (major criticism of Turkish Left over the last fifteen years is the social welfare state being dismantled), to seek loans priced in fundamental analysis (no le human rights) from China possibly in exchange for helping them with Uygur Turks (who are under the influence of USA and Saudi Arabia at the moment) or One Belt (the major artery of which will pass through Turkey). If they can get loans from Japan (whose banks have major experience in Turkey and have made profitable loans to Turks before and who are seeing positive growth this quarter... ) or U.K. (who is looking to reviving Turkish-British strategic cooperation in a post brexit era).... they will have no problems.
The 1974 Embargo and crisis was far worse than this and people largely tolerated it because it was determined to be worth it to intervene in Cyprus (to protect Turkish civilians from the Turk POV). I doubt a popular uprising against Erdogan as a result, as happened to Suharto in 1999 for example. Primarily because Turks are entirely supportive of the rift-causing policies and understand economic conflicts better than most due to domestic political culture and discourse heavily featuring discussions of their recent economic history and geopolitics. The 2001 crisis was bad but exacerbated by coalition politics and media shitshow (PM and President publicly assaulted each other and the PM Ecevit held a news conference about it, numerous major leaks of government financial reports before the Ministers in charge even saw it, etc.). Turkey has changed a lot since 2001, mostly becoming more stable in the political realm— the administrative and political elite are not at each other’s throats as in 2001 and are mostly aligned.
Eat some popcorn. Let’s see what happens.
Dijelim ovo misljenje. Nije mu trebao ni rat u Siriji. Tesko ce izaci na kraj. Vec dugo mocnici rade na stvaranju Velikog Izraela i Kurdistana. Za ostvarenje te ideje potrebno je razrusiti Irak, Siriju, napraviti haos u Iranu a onda ostaje samo Turska. Mislim da je igra pocela malo prerano za Turtsku.by elcaliente » 13/08/2018 08:34
Kako su samo ove fraze kako je Turska vojna sila ofucane, to sto su vojna sila neigra nikakvu ulogu u ovoj igri.
Kao prvo imaju samo konvecionalno oruzije i to samo ono koji su im veliki igraci odlucili dati.
Vec godinama mole i kume svoje saveznike da im se tenkovi mordernizuju ali kurko. 2 godine pokusavaju sa Svabama uci u posao modernizacije svih leoparda ali Ameri nedaju.
Sa konvencionalnim naoruzanjem su sami sebe diskvalifikovali kao ozbilnog partnera u pregovorima. Bez atomskog naoruzanja ostaje Erdoganu samo da praznim rijecima prijeti.
Kao drugo u ovoj igri vojna moc nece igrati nikakvu ulogu, Erdogan se se zakacio sa Izraelom i samim tim zavrsio svoju politicku karijeru.
Ovo je ekonomski rat podpomognut separatistima da bi se brze prouzrokovala nestabilnost. Ako su namjere izraela i USA ozbiljne Turska nema sanse da se odbrani. Erdogan trci malo Putinu u zagrljaj, malo Trumpu pa malo Kinezima kao malo dijete to pokazuje koliko se slab i neozbiljan.
Nije mu trebalo to sa Izraelom i Izraelskim ambasadorom, kanziti ce ga kao primjer ostalima.
1. Veliki Izrael je obicna glupost. Za stvaranje Izraela u ovim granicama potrebno je pobiti i protjerati 200 miliona Arapa. Irak sada ima 40 miliona stanovnika, a za 100 godina ce imati 160 miliona. Arapi imaju strasno visok natalitet i njihov broj se drasticno povecava iz godine u godinu. Izrael nema podrsku da okupira minijaturnu Gazu, a kamoli Irak, Siriju, Jordan, Libanon, Tursku, Egipat, SAudijsku Arabiju itd. To je nemoguce uraditi bez genocida koji bi nadmasio Hitlera.Haman2 wrote:Dijelim ovo misljenje. Nije mu trebao ni rat u Siriji. Tesko ce izaci na kraj. Vec dugo mocnici rade na stvaranju Velikog Izraela i Kurdistana. Za ostvarenje te ideje potrebno je razrusiti Irak, Siriju, napraviti haos u Iranu a onda ostaje samo Turska. Mislim da je igra pocela malo prerano za Turtsku.
madner wrote:Kiki strucnjak za natalitet
Za nezavisnost se mora izboriti, samo Kurdi misle da se to poklanja.
Kikibombona wrote:Kurdi su prosle godine proglasili nezavisnost u Iraku cemu se Amerika i EU zestoko usprotivila. Srusili su san o kurdskoj drzavi. Njima odgovara da Kurdi ostanu u Iraku, sa jakom autonomijom, da drzava ne moze nikad biti normalna. U stanju haosa, permanentne krize i nestabilnosti, Amerikanci odrzavaju svoju poziciju i kontrolisu cijeli region.
Kurdi su toga veoma svjesni, o tome pisu i govore njihovi intelektualci. Medjutim, oni nemaju izbora. Prihvataju ruku koja im se pruza, crpe od nje moc i rade za 'svoju stvar'. Jasno je da im niko nece dati nista na poklon, da se za sve moraju sami izboriti, uz zrtve i patnju, kako to uvijek ide...
Zapad vec 200 godina vjesto manipulira drzavama i narodima bliskog istoka, sve sa ciljem da ostanu u inferiornom polazaju, nestabilni, razjedinjeni i siromasni.
Imaju ponos i prkos.Fudo387 wrote:Ja uopste ne razumijem sta oni pokusavaju.
Biti zajeban igrac na globalnoj sceni?
Ok.
Imas li ledja za to?
Imam, trazicu od naroda da mijenja dolare za lire, prinosi sadaku za bolje sutra.
Super.
I sta kad svi to urade i na kraku opet tvoja lira bude qrac od ovce, a Mehdija ni na vidiku?
Imaju li oni stvarno neku opciju, resurse, ista, u ovom makljanju sa pobijesnjelim Trumpom?
Vecina diktatora do sada su radije birala smrt ili propast nego ponizenje...Ima masa drugih zemalja sa puno vise ljudskih resursa, pa razmisljaju dva puta prije nego sto se upuste u slicne avanture.archi_a wrote:Halo, govorite o zemlji sa 80 miliona stanovnika!!! O zemlji koju nikad niko nije smio napasti!!! Čuj oni glume da su zajeban igrač? Oni jesu zajeban igrač! I oni mogu sebi dozvoliti da odbruse i EU i trumpu. Neki drugi će prešutiti i kad ih trump bukvalno odalami po leđima i glavi i izgura sa puta.
Ovo je vazan detalj.elcaliente wrote:Ja mislim da je Erdi malo ta moc koju je imao udarila u glavu i misli da moze da sjedne za stol sa velikim ali njegova drzava nema ni ekonomsku ni vojnu moc za to a pogotovo ne intelektualnu. Samo budala se mogla u danasnje vrijeme zavaditi sa USA i Izraelom istovremeno. Rusi ce ga prodati kad im bude odgovaralo a Kinezi gledaju svakao dali mogu sta kupiti po Turskoj. Nafta igra veliku ulogu, naftovod kroz Tursku kao i zalihe u sredozemnom moru, Ameri ce to poklopiti u svakom slucaju nece Erdo odredzivati kome ce nafta ici i po kojoj cijeni. Rotshildi ogu baciti Tursku na koljena za mjesec dana.
Koliko je stanovnika imao Sovjetski savez + sataliti, pa su njima Amerikanci obrisali pod?archi_a wrote:Halo, govorite o zemlji sa 80 miliona stanovnika!!! O zemlji koju nikad niko nije smio napasti!!! Čuj oni glume da su zajeban igrač? Oni jesu zajeban igrač! I oni mogu sebi dozvoliti da odbruse i EU i trumpu. Neki drugi će prešutiti i kad ih trump bukvalno odalami po leđima i glavi i izgura sa puta.
Da postoji odgovor, već bismo ga vidjeli.archi_a wrote:Ne volim tajipa, ali ga i ne mrzim. Ušteđevina mi je u bosanskohercegovačkoj konvertibilnoj marki, a vidjet ćemo da li će Turska propasti, kako neki aludiraju, ili će stići odgovor jedne ozbiljne zemlje, što Turska jeste.