Missiles in Poland:
U.S. intelligence confirmed missiles crossing border.
denies everything, as usual. Unlikely NATO will react by attacking
, or by closing airspace. It’s very complicated political decision, probably it will be forgiven. There is significant difference in intentional attack vs accident. Likely procedure will be similar to MH-17 with courts, proof, compensations.
Even if S-300 are of
origin, that is consequence of
aggression used in defense.
Other options are, that there is also
missile alongside
S-300, or even both are of
origin. In any case, direct consequences are unlikely. Indirect consequences will be increase in weapons supplies.
Biden already requested $37.7 bn for additional assistance to
Air strikes:
are probably retaliation of failed negotiations at G-20 or Ankara, just to assert dominance. War never stays at one country, it spills over. The only solution is more weapons, and
will solve it.
Total 90 winged missiles launched, 73 intercepted, 10 UAV Shahed-136 intercepted, 1 UAV Orion intercepted. 20 missiles hit targets, and those are pretty painful. There are no visible
Iranian missiles.
Currently 10 million
s are without power, temperature is going to be -6°C. For now 90% have heating.
Battlefield update:
Dnipro left [east] bank across from Kherson:
There are no
landings or mechanized units, no bridgehead. Some partisans with rifles.
Oleshky and Hola-Prystan are not captured, Kinburn Peninsula – reports of battles, probably partisans. Chaplynka was bombed twice by
, multiple explosions. Armyansk, Hromivka, Askaniia-Nova are in reach of M142 HIMARS, and nobody is going to allow
just sit there. There is no cover,
will hit every legitimate target.
Reports of
keeping up to 25km buffer zone from Dnipro river, which means they won’t be able to use tube artillery to hit Kherson. Likely
will bomb Kherson often, as it does with Nikopol.
Melitopol:
seriously concentrating forces, including retreating units from Kherson district. This is because there is steppe in surrounding area. It doesn’t make sense to dig trenches in steppe, they can be just bypassed anywhere. It’s either holding villages, or maneuver battles.
Vuhledar:
Complicated situation,
attempted final capture of Pavlivka, but got hit by
aviation, and became sad. Vuhledar is elevated, and provide excellent view over Pavlivka.
Marinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Bilohorivka, Kreminna:
no significant changes in last 24 hours.
doing 8 attacks every day. Both sides taking losses, but
losses are 7-8 times more.
G-20 conclusions:
Most important are
Biden’s talks with
Xi Jinping, agreement on no use of nuclear weapons. Zelensky’s speech pointed out, that
is ready for negotiations, as soon as
leaves it’s territory. Before that it’s ultimatum. 88%
citizens are for complete liberation of
territories.
is not interested in the West to win, thus it’s supporting
.
Oil to Hungary:
suspended oil transfer in Druzhba pileline, due to loss of pressure.
Orban called security council.
yesterday voted for reparations to
, but it also causes a lot of problems. As for oil, there is no electricity to power pumps. There is oil embargo starting from 5th of December anyway.
Missiles in Poland:
U.S. intelligence confirmed missiles crossing border. 
denies everything, as usual. Unlikely NATO will react by attacking 
origin, that is consequence of 
Iranian missiles.
Xi Jinping, agreement on no use of nuclear weapons. Zelensky’s speech pointed out, that 
Orban called security council. 
