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The Russian version of events in Ukraine is now an extreme and risible version of this inability to admit they are in trouble. The flagship Moskva sank under tow in stormy seas, it was said, even though the weather was fine; the retreat from Snake Island was a “goodwill gesture”; devastating explosions at Crimean bases were merely numerous accidents, and the headlong recent retreat from Kharkiv was a “regrouping”. The Kremlin will say anything rather than admit that Putin has blundered on a vast, historical scale, with a radical underestimation of the country he chose to bully and wished to annihilate.

With even China expressing concerns and India giving him a lecture, Putin last week insisted that all was going to plan. Many Russians know this is ludicrous. One of their greatest pop stars, Alla Pugacheva, has spoken of “our lads dying for illusory aims”. Hardline so-called “milbloggers”, who wrote enthusiastically about the war, have turned on the incompetent armed forces and called for swifter destruction of Ukraine’s infrastructure.

Putin will know he is in trouble. The institutionalised stupidity will last a while, but reality will force its way in. Plan A, the occupation of Ukraine, failed in February. Plan B, the control of the Donbas and referendums in occupied areas to vote to join Russia, has fallen apart in September. What is Plan C? How does he avoid the fate of the autocrat who fails: that sudden demise when the army refuses orders, or the crowd stop being afraid, or someone like Nikolai Patrushev, head of the Security Council and trained in the KGB, comes quietly down the corridor in the night?

He has three options, all of which involve great risk. He will thus avoid choosing for some weeks. He will appease the demand for more attacks on power plants, water supplies and dams. He will hope that gas prices will panic Europe, while demanding advances from exhausted troops. But on current trends, he will need to choose, and the West needs to prepare for his choice. After the denials, something is going to give.

His first option is the full mobilisation of Russia’s economy and society for all-out conventional war. Call up two million reservists, convert factories for munitions, ask for sacrifices all round. The risks for him are that this takes time, that many modern components made in the West are unavailable and popular support could collapse. The evidence that young Russians do not want to be conscripted to fight is very strong.

The second possibility is to threaten to employ, demonstrate or actually use weapons of mass destruction, such as a tactical nuclear device used against a town or military unit. This is the craziest option. It would unite the whole globe against Putin, still not win the war unless repeated many times and is the likeliest scenario to provoke an internal coup to remove him.

The third option is to call it a day and try to live to fight again in the future. Retreat — “regroup” of course, in a massive “goodwill gesture” — to more defensible lines, offer a ceasefire and blame everyone but himself. The West, he would say, conspired against Russia. Defence minister Sergei Shoigu was not up to the job and disappears mysteriously, armed forces commander Valery Gerasimov is put on trial for treason and incompetence. Putin is lauded by some world leaders for bringing down fuel and food prices. His risk here is that the truth would dawn on Russians that they had been defeated in the present and made poorer for the future. Their president would be very vulnerable.

We do not know what choice he will make. But as western leaders confer in New York this week they need to get ready and influence his choice. The best way to avert escalation into full mobilisation is to help Ukraine now to a speedier victory, with longer range missiles from the US and main battle tanks, including the large numbers belonging to Germany. That is also the best way to push Putin into a face-saving retreat, with the least Ukrainian territory still under his control.

Čitalac wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:17 Može biti da su ovi brzinski referendumi na okupiranim teritorijama i mobilizacija u istom paketu. Sa stanovišta međunarodnog prava, referendumi neće značiti ništa no očito će značiti nešto kada se radi o ruskom poimanju sukoba. To za Moskvu više ne bi bio rat u Ukrajini nego rat na prostoru Rusije.

GAU8 wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:43

DaysleepeR wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:24 USA je draftovala 2,2 miliona vojnika u Vijetnam, i nevjerovatnu količinu oružja i opreme pa svi znamo kako je to završilo.

Afganistan da ni ne pominjemo.

Upravo. Zašto iko misli da će se onda jedna poluvojska poput ruske imalo bolje provesti u Ukrajini?

Čitalac wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:17 Može biti da su ovi brzinski referendumi na okupiranim teritorijama i mobilizacija u istom paketu. Sa stanovišta međunarodnog prava, referendumi neće značiti ništa no očito će značiti nešto kada se radi o ruskom poimanju sukoba. To za Moskvu više ne bi bio rat u Ukrajini nego rat na prostoru Rusije.

lajkujMe wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:43 Ovaj zakon i ta mobilizacija je potpis Putina na unistenje Rusije.
I unistenje sebe kao lika.

Da Rusi zele ratovati prijavili bi se masovno na contracte koji nude para
Sad ide prisilna mobilizacija i tu bi moglo da bude svega.
Ocekujem uskoro nerede po Rusiji i napade na regrutne centre

costacurta wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:43

sumirprimus wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:39

rusi nemajju opremu za toliku vojsku. ako stave sve potencijale za ratnu upotrebu, heh nek im je sa srecom opet vin vin za slobodni svijet
vec zamisljam mobilisane ruske pekare,taksiste,fabricke radnike, ucitelje sa sljemovima od bivsih korisnika i vec vlagom namemljene cizme sa bivsih kosrisnika...ljolj

Ono što nisam očekivao je šutnja tog običnog ruskog naroda. Mislio sam da će se već dosad dignuti mase protiv ovog čovječuljka, ono izgleda identično ko i u Srbiji. Nedovoljno je te kritične mase koja se može suprtotstaviti režimu, većina još uvijek vjeruje priči da pobjeđuju, da su nacisti stjerani u ćošak i "naredne dvije sedmice su ključne".

GAU8 wrote: ↑20/09/2022 15:02

lajkujMe wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:43 Ovaj zakon i ta mobilizacija je potpis Putina na unistenje Rusije.
I unistenje sebe kao lika.

Da Rusi zele ratovati prijavili bi se masovno na contracte koji nude para
Sad ide prisilna mobilizacija i tu bi moglo da bude svega.
Ocekujem uskoro nerede po Rusiji i napade na regrutne centre

Krenuti će Putin sa mobilizacijom daleko od Moskve. Zna i on šta radi....

Gandalf wrote: ↑20/09/2022 14:19

Spoiler

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Ni sekunde dosadno u orkistanu

The Verkhovna Rada adopted a bill allowing military personnel with three or more children under the age of 18 to be dismissed from military service. The decision was supported by 331 people's deputies. Men with three children are not subject to mobilization, but if the father joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the third child was born after that, or he had three children and he went to serve voluntarily, in this case he cannot demobilize.

sumirprimus wrote: ↑20/09/2022 15:05 sto bi sad sjela jedna jaka kontra ukra na bilo kom pravcu

The artistic director of the oldest drama theater in Russia in Yaroslavl, Sergey Puskepalis, died in a car accident. The director was 56 years old. Komsomolets” reports that the deceased drove a car with a load of thermal underwear for the military to the Donbass.

trambusek88 wrote: ↑20/09/2022 15:18