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skrbavi-admin wrote: ↑10/09/2022 15:49 đe onaj crtac mapa da osvjezi onu sto je nacrto

doox wrote: ↑10/09/2022 15:48 U ponedeljak očekujem da Macron izjavi da je vrijeme da se sjede i pregovara, dosta je rata i ubijanja.

lajkujMe wrote: ↑10/09/2022 15:50

skrbavi-admin wrote: ↑10/09/2022 15:49 đe onaj crtac mapa da osvjezi onu sto je nacrto

Ne crto je mapa od prije 4 sata vec uveliko netacna

Ukraine War, 10 September 2022

Another ‘quick and dirty update’ (indeed, writing this ‘during a break’).

Since last night, things are developing with unexpected speed. There’s still no organised counter-attack by the VSRF: instead, only ever more news about Ukrainian advances, and Russian withdrawals. Moreover, the situation is reaching a point where it takes two maps to explain it.

Note: my ‘arrows’ are ‘just for orientation’. By no means meant to show klix Ukrainian axes of advance. I’m also not reporting anything the Russians do not yet know.

East Kharkiv

After raiding the Velykiy Burluk by its special forces, yesterday (and thus running reconnaissance of the town), this morning, the ZSU opened its assault on this town.

Is a very good idea: safeguarding the northern-flak of what is meanwhile the advance over the Oskil River, further south. Caution: liberating Velykiy Burluk might turn out not to be easy. AFAIK, the VSRF was hauling all its reinforcements to this area, the last 3–4 days.


Kupyansk: western side of the town is firmly in Ukrainian hands.

Oskil River: Senkove is in Ukrainian hands for at least 24 hours, probably longer. Together with the local bridge. Seems to have been used for advance on Svatove, further east.

Bakhtyn: unclear, but probably Ukrainian.

Izyum: Russians fled the last night, the town is meanwhile in Ukrainian hands.

Oskil: Ukrainians liberated the northern side two days ago, and were in Kamyanka as of yesterday evening, but the gross of the Russian garrison of Izyum still managed to run away (they were simply running faster).

Finally, east of the Oskil River, there’s Svatove: the Russians fled, the town is said to be under Ukrainian control. Can’t gauge how much, yet.




2.)

Meanwhile, there are dramatic developments further south — along the frontline from Maidan and Slovyansk to Siversk.

Yesterday, the ZSU launched a three-prong attack on Lyman: the place was reported as liberated, meanwhile. My arrow is north-western direction from there is my own assumption: it’s logical to advance along the M03 and connect with units coming from the Izyum-Kamyanka area. At least as logical would be an attempt to advance on Pisky-Radkivski: the place was mentioned as a concentration point for VSRF reinforcements. Of course, the fall of Svatove, north-east from there, might have changed a lot.

Moreover, Ukrainians are likely to advance on Kremina and Rubizhne, with the aim of recovering Severodonetsk.


Finally, since this morning, there are reports about an Ukrainian offensive from Siversk via Verkhnokamyanka on Lysychansk. RUMINT has it, Russian troops in that area are ‘in the process of general withdrawal’ into Lysychansk…




This is all ‘somewhere between not-so-good and good news’. No reason to flip out in happiness, just to be satisfied. Sacking the BTG that used to hold Izyum, and the few others that used to be deployed further south, would’ve been ‘better’. But, ‘OK’: the Russian supply depots captured there, in Balakleya, and in Kupyansk, are certain to make things for the Ukrainian logistics a notch easier, in the coming days.

Above all, I remain concerned about Putin’s reaction. This is a massive blow to his prestige, and the kind of defeat he has never experienced before. He’s irrational enough to make even more stupidities than all the stupid things he did the last six months.

On the other hand, he might follow in Saddam Hussein’s steps after the Fall of Faw in 1986, and let generals of the VSRF do what they’re actually paid for…. (think, this would be the best solution — for everybody involved).

With other words: there’s no reason to breathe freely before anything becomes known about the place and timing of a possible Russian counterattack. As usually, I’m not into predicting future, but logic dictates this to come from the north, because the Russians still control the railway from Belgorod to Velykiy Burluk; on the contrary, they have no major supply hubs north or north-east of the current combat zone.

Until this takes place, we’ve got to hope the ZSU is running constant reconnaissance in front of its advancing units, so to be informed about the Russian movements, and to recognize any concentrations on time.

lajkujMe wrote: ↑10/09/2022 16:10 Vec se prica o 4000 kvadratnih kilometara oslobodjene teritorije.
Ogromna prostranstva

Troops from Balakliya and Izyum were regrouped in the Donetsk direction to achieve the stated goals of a special military operation to liberate Donbass, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Saturday.

"To achieve the stated goals of the special military operation to liberate Donbass, it was decided to regroup Russian troops located in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum to increase efforts in the Donetsk direction. To this end, within three days, an operation was carried out to curtail and organize the transfer of the Izyum-Balakleya group of troops to the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic," the ministry said.

They added that "during this operation, a number of distracting and demonstration activities were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops."