Gledaj širu sliku. I prije nego je počela operacija u Afrinu govorio sam o tome da je Afrin samo mali dio šire slike novog turskog pristupa Siriji. Turska je, uz Katar koji je zauzet svojim problemima, postala glavni i jedini oslonac pobunjenika. Sranja među GCC zemljama su išla u prilog Turcima kada je u pitanju Sirija.
Projekat FSA - Nacionalne vojske Sirije, projekat ujedinjenja Ahrara i Zenkija, projekat jordansko-turskog finansiranja FSA Južnog Fronta (koji je jutros najavio početak ofanzivnih djelovanja u Daari ukoliko počne ofanziva na Ist. Ghoutu), projekat ujedinjavanja ostataka FSA na istoku i jugu Sirije pod vodstvom Riyada Hijaba - sve su to turski dugoročni projekti.
Još prije par mjeseci sam govorio da će neminovno doći do pucanja po šavovima tzv. SDF-a.
Fabrice Balanche, francuski akademik, ekspert za Siriju i član poznatog Hoover Instituta se skoro vratio iz Sirije, boravio je tri sedmice na teritorijama pod kontrolom tzv. SDF-a. Evo šta kaže:
“America’s current policies … will lead to America’s defeat in Syria. At some point they will be forced to pull out because … US soldiers will get blown up.” Balanche said he had reached this conclusion after talking to scores of Arabs living under effective Kurdish control in the mainly Arab towns of Raqqa, Tell Abyad and Manbij.
As the war against IS winds down, Balanche observed, problems that existed prior to the campaign have come back with a vengeance. Economic needs once again outweigh basic security. In Arab eyes, the Americans are mainly helping the Kurds. Frustration among Arabs is reaching a boiling point and Turkey, which is home to more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees, is “eager to exploit” it. Angry Arab youths are “the future Taliban” and could target Americans. But “because the Americans on the ground don’t mix with the Arab population for security reasons, they have no idea what is going on.”
The Kurdish-administered northeastern belt of Syria is the country’s breadbasket and also contains much of its oil and dams. Yet according to Balanche the economic situation is “explosive.”
There is virtually no aid coming in, he said, explaining, “America is very stingy and the Saudis are focused on Yemen.” There is not enough water to irrigate crops. Bombs destroyed irrigation canals. Electricity is provided for only part of the day, from 4 p.m. to 11 p.m. Villagers can no longer grow crops.
Turkey, which controls the headwaters of the Euphrates River, on which Syrian agriculture heavily relies, has reportedly reduced the flow, increasing both Syrians' misery and the pressure on the YPG. Last year, Turkey shut down the operations of Mercy Corps and several other humanitarian outfits delivering aid to northern Syria because the areas they serviced included those run by the YPG.
In January, violent protests erupted in Manbij amid allegations that the YPG-led Syrian Democratic Forces had arrested and tortured two civilians from the city. The unrest was spurred in part by the forced conscription of Arab youths by the group — a practice that has since been scrapped — and led the YPG to grow even tougher, in Balanche’s words to “prevent a spreading revolt.”
Turkey’s offensive in Afrin has added to the climate of repression and economic decline. Turkey is in no hurry to leave and can absorb further casualties amid robust public support for Operation Olive Branch.
Indeed, most Turks accept the government’s narrative that the YPG is no different from the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which is fighting Turkish forces inside Turkey and therefore needs to be eliminated as well.
Lokalnim Arapima (koji su apsolutna vecina) je pun kurac YPG terorista i Kurda općenito. Možda je vecini čak i svejedno da li će biti pod FSA ili Assadom, samo da nisu pod Kurdima.
Danas-sutra kada sranja na etničkoj osnovi pocnu istočno od Eufrata - šta misliš kome će se Amerikanci okrenuti: Assadu/Rusima/Iranu ili Turskoj?
Makar to znacilo da YPG/PKK puste niz vodu.
Turska radi na tome. Njima je bitan, cak i bitniji dio od Menbidža pa do granice sa Irakom nego sam Afrin. Nemoj se čuditi ako za par mjeseci od Menbidža do granice sa Irakom ne budu zajednički operativni štabovi Amerikanaca i Turaka. Na kraju krajeva o tome se razgovaralo i tokom zadnje posjete T-Rexa Ankari.
Nisu ni Rusi ni Iranci levati, oni znaju sve ovo i zato sa njihove strane ne postoji previše povjerenja prema Turcima.
Ali glavni preduslov za sve ovo jeste da se ne obrukaju u Afrinu. Kako radi publike u Turskoj, regionalnih igrača tako i radi stanovnika u Menbidžu i istočno od Eufrata.
S toga sam siguran da nema govora o povlačenju turske vojske i FSA iz dijelova koji su do sada zauzeti, naprotiv - napredovanje će se nastaviti.
