AMERIKA

[GandalfSivi]

Tolika je podrska ratu da su morali izmisliti novu kategoriju “MAGA republikanaca” u ispitivanju javnog mjenja, da bi izgledalo da ga bilo koji je vecinaki podrzava…

[Saian]

Opinion | I Predicted the 2008 Financial Crisis. What Is Coming May Be Worse.

By Richard Bookstaber

Mr. Bookstaber is the author of “A Demon of Our Own Design,” which in 2007 warned of the coming financial crisis.

At the start of the 2008 financial crisis, I was at a hedge fund. By its end, I was at the U.S. Treasury. At both, I worked with people only a few years out of college. The drama of 2008 was all they knew about financial markets. “Remember what’s happening,” I told them. “You’ll never see anything like this again.”

Now I’m not so sure. Maybe they’ll see worse.

We have returned to a period of risk, one rife with the sort of pressures that have led to major financial crises. This time, the risks are spread across industries, markets and nations: artificial intelligence, the roughly $2 trillion private credit industry, stock markets, Taiwan and now Iran. These risks are analyzed one by one, news article by news article. We understand them in isolation. Yet they are different entry points into the same underlying structure — a complex and tightly coupled system where the specific source of stress matters less than how quickly that stress can spread.

Signs of systemic strain are emerging.

Let’s start with private credit, which is already showing worrisome signs. Over the past two decades, the retreat of traditional banks after the financial crisis has left many companies increasingly reliant on borrowing from institutional investors. But these loans rarely exchange hands, leaving investors uncertain about what these instruments are really worth or how easily they could be sold if conditions deteriorate.

Now clouding the picture is the fact that many of the borrowers underpinning the lending industry are software and technology companies — the kinds of businesses whose services could be replaced by A.I.

That vulnerability is starting to worry investors. Already uneasy about the way higher interest rates are raising borrowing costs, some have begun withdrawing their money from the private credit funds of well-known companies like Blue Owl, BlackRock and Blackstone. Shares in Blue Owl have fallen sharply. And because the market has no organized exchange and information is inaccessible, investor withdrawals can trigger the kind of wholesale run that in the past turned financial stresses into full-blown crises.

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Simultaneously, the A.I. boom is driving extraordinary investment into a small group of dominant technology companies, inflating their valuations to the point that 10 stocks now account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s value. That level of concentration is unprecedented — and dangerous, because it means a shock to any one of these companies can ripple across the entire market rather than be absorbed by it.

What appear to be separate developments — a new kind of lending market and technological dislocation on one hand, stock market exuberance on the other — are in fact the same network of money and expectations, approached from different directions.

Of course, private credit isn’t only financing those companies vulnerable to A.I. It is also a critical source of financing for the infrastructure that drives A.I. — the data centers and semiconductor chips. This infrastructure is largely being built by the handful of companies like Google and Microsoft that dominate our stock market. In this tightly connected system, the weakening of private credit strains the A.I. investments of the tech Goliaths, which in turn threatens the stock portfolios, the retirements and the pensions of tens of millions of people.

In addition, the A.I. boom is placing new strains on the physical infrastructure it depends on. It drives enormous electricity consumption and has a ravenous appetite for advanced semiconductors. These carry geopolitical weight.

Take Iran. An energy shock from the conflict that raises the cost of power or constrains its supply directly affects data centers and A.I. production, raising costs for the A.I. Goliaths, which then transfer those pressures to our private credit and stock markets.

Then there’s Taiwan. If China were to invade or blockade it, America’s access to semiconductors would be severely limited. That would immediately slow deployment of A.I., weakening the companies driving the A.I. boom, with the inevitable knock-on effects.

Our current financial system fails not because any one thing goes wrong. It fails because different shocks propagate through the same structure and in ways that are hard to anticipate. When something eventually goes wrong, it spreads faster than it can be contained.

It is critical that our policymakers realize that private credit is not just a parallel risk sitting alongside the A.I. boom. A.I.’s data centers, chips and infrastructure have been built largely on private loans. Investors in those loans cannot easily sell their positions. So if there is any quake in the system and they find they need to raise cash, they will do what investors do when they can’t sell what they want to sell: They sell what they can. And what they can sell easily are the large, publicly traded technology stocks that dominate the major indexes.

This is not the first time we have built a system like this. The crisis of 2008 is often remembered as a story of homeowners gorging on excessive debt, a housing bubble fueled by speculation and millions of mortgages going bad. But the housing bubble itself was not the reason the crunch became so destructive. The accelerant that pushed the crisis to such depths was the financial system that had been constructed around the housing market. Novel and complex financial instruments obscured the risk, intertwined balance sheets across the financial system and eliminated the buffers that once absorbed shocks. When the housing market tanked, these instruments nearly took our entire financial system down with it.

This time, the danger isn’t financial engineering. It’s that our financial system has attached itself to the vulnerabilities of our physical world — power grids, water, land, supply chains — and created hazards that markets have no framework to analyze. Our models for detecting risk look at prices, volatility and correlations. They have no instruments for reading a grid failure, a drought or a severed supply chain. By the time warning signs show up in market data, the damage will already have been done.

The physical risks of Iran, Taiwan and the A.I. boom are supplanting the types of financial risks that preceded 2008. I’d take financial risk any day. Financial risk moves just prices. Physical risk moves the world.

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/16/opinion/fina ... Position=3

Zanimljivo, 2008 je dubioza bila fabricated through financial instruments by wall street shuftovi, danas je ova administracija te lobiji iza nje i mnogih drugih aktuelnih populistickih pozicija ili aspiring populistickih opozicija, vezala lending gain za dubiozu o stvarnom svijetu, poput relativizacije istine u odnosu na klimu, gradjanski ili religijski moral, te ovisnosti o prirodnim resursima kroz energiju i uslova za njihovu profitabilnu exploataciju koje bas ta relativizacija istine i cestitosti dovodi u pitanje u prakticnom smislu kroz ratove, sukobe i hushkanje. Ko bi rek’o da bi svo to obesmisljavanje i zor kojim se dolazilo i dolazi na vlast trenutno, moglo utjecati na godinama odrzavani, odavno krhki balans izmedju toga sta planeta moze deliver i onog koliko se klade da moze deliver. Fakat, ko bi rek’o

[Chmoljo]

il što bi se kod nas jednostavnije reklo:

Meho, ne barći, pokvarićeš!

[GandalfSivi]

Nema boga da se lik rodio sa prezimenom Bookstaber

[GandalfSivi]

Btw, ko ne prati sudjenje Afromanu, propusta puno

[Chmoljo]

Nema boga da se lik rodio sa prezimenom Bookstaber

pa dobro... zanatsko-tematsko prezime. ko Konjokrad

[GandalfSivi]

Mala pozadina: Neko ga 2022. prijavio da dila droge, uletili mu drotovi u kucu, razvalili vrata, ukinuli kamere, pokrali nakve pare, nisu nista nasli, on nije bio kuci ali pratio sve sto se desava preko kamera dok ih nisu ukinuli, on iskoristio snimke sa kamera, napravio pjesme, stampao majice, uzeo dobre pare i sad ga drotovi tuze za deformation, dok on koristi ustavom zagarantovano pravo slobode govora i koristenja snimaka iz vlastite kuce. Sudija je vec odbacio vecinu optuzbi drotova, ostalo je jos nesto malo i sada je pocelo sudjenje.

Cisto zlato svega mi

[GandalfSivi]

Evo i kraci snimak, za one kojima se ne da gledati sve

[GandalfSivi]

Pobjeda!!!

[Billy The Pljuc]

@PixelDrifter @dr_Evil

Između ostalog, ne navedoh TBBT koje nikad nisam bio neki ljubitelj i koja svakako spada u nešto što ne bih gledao a Schwimmer mi je odvratan pojavno sam po sebi dok iskreno nisam znao za cionizam dvojca koji si naveo ali me ne iznenađuje. Ne može ih čovjek sve upratiti ni kad bi htio a more ih je, što kažu - oni su tu, među nama.

Jasno mi je da se svi židovi ne mogu svrstavati pod kapu cionizma, ima ih ispravnih i viđamo ih ali se njihov glas u modernom svijetu ne čuje, žive kako u tzv. Izraelu tako i širom svijeta. Za ove prvonavedene imam sve manje razumijevanja jer nastanjuju prostore koji im ne pripadaju u kontekstu za koji se tvrdi danas a znamo kako je isto nastalo, na krvi nevinih. Taj tzv. Izrael je definitivno genocidna tvorevina i nisam nikakav fanatik kad kažem da isti treba nestati a ovo pišem sa pozicije čovjeka koji ima neku daljnju familiju tamo. Bosanac, klasika, upozna prelijepu židovku i ostvari potomstvo koje biva othranjeno u duhu judaizma i naravno da svi đuture naginju cionizmu i postaju dio istog. Ima ih, nije on jedini, što neko napisa, svima njima je servirano štošta na izvol'te po dolasku u "obećanu zemlju", nešto što po svojim i ljudskim i profesionalnim karakteristikama ne bi uspjeli ostvariti nigdje drugdje. Helem, nemam nikakav kontakt sa istima niti želim da ga imam.

Iste osjećaje imam i prema USA i svemu što dolazi od njih, iskreno nisu nikad bili "my cup of tea". Imao sam ne jednu nego više prilika da iselim i nastanim se tamo ali sam svjesno donosio odluku da ne idem, od emotivnih, poslovnih pa do familijarnih. Naumpade mi i slučaj sa suprugom koja se nekad bila registrovala (prije braka) za Green Card Lottery. To ljeto na Hvaru se ta neka agencija, štaliveć, baš aktivirala sa pozivima i davljenjem zakonite da se uplati neki iznos kako bi joj/nam oni pomogli da budemo izvučeni. Trajalo je to danima dok nisam presjekao i preuzeo telefon, na moje da prestanu zvati jer su zadnja zemlja na svijetu gdje bih došao da živim dobih dozu čuđenja ali je maltretiranje prestalo.

Ovakav kakav jesam, nesavršen prije svega a nakon svih životnih iskustava mogu samo da zamislim kakav stepen frustracije bih imao danas, da kojim slučajem živim u USA. Što se familije tiče, "Born Bosnian, Forever American", da mi oprosti forumska dijaspora, najblaže rečeno - što smo se gledali, gledali smo se.

[PixelDrifter]

Ovo nasih Jevreja sto su otisli prije rata su svi redom za Netanyahua, a opet ljudi koji nisu Jevreji, pa su otisli u USA su mahom za Trumpa (Hrvati i Srbi). Nemam nikakve volje da sa istim imam bilo kakav odnos, podrzavali tokom rata ratne zlocince u Bosni, sada to rade u Izraelu. Kompletna Jevrejska zajednica je glasala za Radovana Karadzica neposredno prije rata. Tako da, sto se mene tice, imaju permanentni odjebaus.

[omar little]

Zanimljivo, 2008 je dubioza bila fabricated through financial instruments by wall street shuftovi, danas je ova administracija te lobiji iza nje i mnogih drugih aktuelnih populistickih pozicija ili aspiring populistickih opozicija, vezala lending gain za dubiozu o stvarnom svijetu, poput relativizacije istine u odnosu na klimu, gradjanski ili religijski moral, te ovisnosti o prirodnim resursima kroz energiju i uslova za njihovu profitabilnu exploataciju koje bas ta relativizacija istine i cestitosti dovodi u pitanje u prakticnom smislu kroz ratove, sukobe i hushkanje. Ko bi rek’o da bi svo to obesmisljavanje i zor kojim se dolazilo i dolazi na vlast trenutno, moglo utjecati na godinama odrzavani, odavno krhki balans izmedju toga sta planeta moze deliver i onog koliko se klade da moze deliver. Fakat, ko bi rek’o

kad wall street kockari krenu lamente pisati, znak je da se drma. samo sto je njihova obijest vazda nas racun.

[sumirprimus]

Btw, ko ne prati sudjenje Afromanu, propusta puno

Lijepe lagane teme
I u stvari ovo je suština americke price gledajuc ya strane, vecina (ne svi)izabere predjesenika koji povede ratove na krajevima svijeta, a oni se lagano bave domaćim temama i svijet ih plaho i ne interesira.

[Maliodmene]

Nisu samo Hrvati i Srbi glasali za Tvumpa, i Bosnje su

[sumirprimus]

Nisu samo Hrvati i Srbi glasali za Tvumpa, i Bosnje su

Ne svi, evo ovde su po sopstvenom priznanju vise demokrate. Sto bi lagali, to samo kad neko glasa za sdfa patriote kaze nisam sda ali

[Peacean]

Šta kaže Hegseth, još 200 milijardica uzimaju iz budžeta za potrebe rata. Fino, fino...

[sumirprimus]

od.svih likova u trump admin ovaj je najgori, i sto je najgore, promijenice se vlast, i nioom nista, a frajko će nastaviti lagano ko da se ništa nije desilo, mozda malo tv, malo nova knjiga malo savjetovanje

[DaysleepeR]

Ma njemu dlaka fali do otkaza.
Trump nema posla sa luzerima.
Zato je i nervozan.
Vidim da se i onoj Tulsi Gabbard klima stolica opasno, i ona će ko i Kristi Noem nakon ovog svjedočenja lagano bye bye.
Trumpu treba scapegoatova za ovaj nered.

[sumirprimus]

Ma njemu dlaka fali do otkaza.
Trump nema posla sa luzerima.
Zato je i nervozan.
Vidim da se i onoj Tulsi Gabbard klima stolica opasno, i ona će ko i Kristi Noem nakon ovog svjedočenja lagano bye bye.
Trumpu treba scapegoatova za ovaj nered.

Ma jbo otkaz to dolazi svakako ha sutra ha za tri godine.
Odgovornost.
Tulsi je svakako balalajka, rekao bih da je kao sigurna, nisu jos zafuntali zaprave

[jeza u ledja]

Tulsi Gabbard?

Hocel ko kupit njenu majicu iz predsjednike kampanje 2020?

[sumirprimus]

Zato i kažem balalajka.
Sve je to ista klika.

[Maliodmene]

Nisu samo Hrvati i Srbi glasali za Tvumpa, i Bosnje su

Ne svi, evo ovde su po sopstvenom priznanju vise demokrate. Sto bi lagali, to samo kad neko glasa za sdfa patriote kaze nisam sda ali

Forumasi su pretezno civilizovani, zato i jesu demokrate, al dosta Bosnja je dalo glas Tvumpu

[Jack Be Nimble]

Bosnje koje ja znam:

2000: joj vi koji ste dobili papire, nemojte za Al Gora matere vam. Liberman je Jevrej, nemoj njemu davati glas.

2004: Bush vodi rat protiv Islama

2008: Joj Huso, joj ovaj je nas, sigurno ce nam doci u dzemat na iftar.

2012: Haj valjda opet za onog garavog

2016: Jebo Hilary, da je Bill pa i nekako

2020: Biden voli Bosnu! Sta da li slusa Halida, ma place dok ga slusa

2024: Biden/Kamala su genocidni, Free Palestine! Lets go Brandon!

2028: zivi bili pa vidjeli

[sumirprimus]

Dakle opet vjerski motiv i zbog bloskog istoka?
Pa i nije neka razlika kad pogledaš suštinski izmedju maga i sdfa glasača realno, isti su trigeri

[sinuhe]

Na ovom forumu jedva da je ikad napisana lijepa riječ o Americi.