24.10.2022, 10:36 12,042
The Kalinouski Regiment is turning into more than just a political entity. It aspires to become the new centre of Belarusian democracy. Political analyst Valeryj Karbalevich writes about it for Svobodnye Novosti.
Political Ambitions
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has proposed to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky to conclude an alliance. Kyiv has not responded to this.
At the same time, deputies of the Ukrainian parliament have expressed their intentions to recognize the Kalinouski Regiment as an authorized representative of the Belarusian democratic community, putting it up against Tsikhanouskaya's team. Practical steps have already been taken in this direction. There was a meeting between the deputies and representatives of the Kalinouski Regiment. After the meeting, Vadzim Kabanchuk, deputy commander of the Kalinouski Regiment, spoke in an interview to Radio Svaboda about the political ambitions of his unit and the lack of trust in Tsikhanouskaya's cabinet. He even outlined the contours of the political programme:We intend to change the situation in Belarus. And in order not to be accused of wanting to create some kind of junta after the overthrow of Lukashenka's regime in Belarus, we will announce free elections. If the Kalinouski Regiment is the main player, we will announce free elections.
Everyone will be able to take part in them, including the democratic forces".
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A little later, the Kalinouski Regiment representatives met with the Lithuanian Seimas leadership.
Thus, the Kalinouski Regiment is turning into more than just a political entity. It aspires to become a new centre of Belarusian democracy. Several factors have come together here.
It has already been said a lot that the radical sentiments that focus on a forceful scenario of changing the power in Belarus have become dominant among the politically minded opposition public. Tsikhanouskaya's team has reacted to this, with two former security officials joining the Joint Transition Cabinet. However, if the stakes are on force, then it is only natural that the structures that can, at least theoretically, implement such a scenario step forward. With the outbreak of war, such structures emerged in the form of armed units of Belarusian volunteers in the Ukrainian army.
Another point. One of the main claims against Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is that it is necessary to act and not just talk and make statements. In this context, the actions of the Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine are a striking contrast. They are fighting at the front (about 10 people have been killed) and promise to liberate Belarus after the victory.
The idea of the Kalinouski Regiment's "liberation march" to Belarus after the victory over Russia in Ukraine has a wide response.
It created popularity of these formations. Significant media attention has given these structures weight in the democratic environment. In addition, they are supported by part of the Ukrainian political class. It is only natural that they are trying to convert it into political ambitions.
Fears Of Authorities
The Belarusian authorities contribute to the political weight of the Kalinouski Regiment by declaring these volunteers their main enemies. Aliaksandr Lukashenka regularly mentions fighters of Belarusian armed formations in Ukraine in his public speeches. And it has long been observed that if he talks about something frequently, this topic worries him a lot. And he takes seriously the threat coming from these units.
At the behest of Lukashenka this information campaign has been adopted, developed and brought to its logical end by the heads of the law enforcement agencies. For example, Ivan Tsertsel, the KGB chairman, speaking at the Minsk Tractor Plant on October 17, said that security officers are concerned about the creation of Belarusian armed formations on the territory of neighboring countries, first of all, Ukraine. And that these formations are actively preparing "for the decisive phase".
Tsertsel's statement confirms that the authorities are taking this threat very seriously. It is indicative that they see the danger by assuming two scenarios: defeat of the Russian troops in the war and an easy advance of the Belarusian volunteers from Ukraine to the territory of Belarus. Both threats are considered real by the authorities. The latter is particularly impressive. "A group of 100 to 300 militants ... inflicting losses on our law enforcement officers, they will advance towards Minsk".
And what about the army, territorial defence, people's militia, KGB, Interior Ministry, eight structures with the right of operational-search activity, employees of the Emergencies Ministry, who have allegedly been provided with arms, foresters, hunters and fishermen, who are also mobilized to defend the regime? Will they all run away at the sight of 100 militants?
This is the expression of subconscious fears that settled in the heads of the political leadership in 2020
Thus, the Kalinouski Regiment is turning into more than just a political entity. It aspires to become a new centre of Belarusian democracy. Several factors have come together here.
It has already been said a lot that the radical sentiments that focus on a forceful scenario of changing the power in Belarus have become dominant among the politically minded opposition public. Tsikhanouskaya's team has reacted to this, with two former security officials joining the Joint Transition Cabinet. However, if the stakes are on force, then it is only natural that the structures that can, at least theoretically, implement such a scenario step forward. With the outbreak of war, such structures emerged in the form of armed units of Belarusian volunteers in the Ukrainian army.
Another point. One of the main claims against Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is that it is necessary to act and not just talk and make statements. In this context, the actions of the Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine are a striking contrast. They are fighting at the front (about 10 people have been killed) and promise to liberate Belarus after the victory.
The idea of the Kalinouski Regiment's "liberation march" to Belarus after the victory over Russia in Ukraine has a wide response.
It created popularity of these formations. Significant media attention has given these structures weight in the democratic environment. In addition, they are supported by part of the Ukrainian political class. It is only natural that they are trying to convert it into political ambitions.
Fears Of Authorities
The Belarusian authorities contribute to the political weight of the Kalinouski Regiment by declaring these volunteers their main enemies. Aliaksandr Lukashenka regularly mentions fighters of Belarusian armed formations in Ukraine in his public speeches. And it has long been observed that if he talks about something frequently, this topic worries him a lot. And he takes seriously the threat coming from these units.
At the behest of Lukashenka this information campaign has been adopted, developed and brought to its logical end by the heads of the law enforcement agencies. For example, Ivan Tsertsel, the KGB chairman, speaking at the Minsk Tractor Plant on October 17, said that security officers are concerned about the creation of Belarusian armed formations on the territory of neighboring countries, first of all, Ukraine. And that these formations are actively preparing "for the decisive phase".
Tsertsel's statement confirms that the authorities are taking this threat very seriously. It is indicative that they see the danger by assuming two scenarios: defeat of the Russian troops in the war and an easy advance of the Belarusian volunteers from Ukraine to the territory of Belarus. Both threats are considered real by the authorities. The latter is particularly impressive. "A group of 100 to 300 militants ... inflicting losses on our law enforcement officers, they will advance towards Minsk".
And what about the army, territorial defence, people's militia, KGB, Interior Ministry, eight structures with the right of operational-search activity, employees of the Emergencies Ministry, who have allegedly been provided with arms, foresters, hunters and fishermen, who are also mobilized to defend the regime? Will they all run away at the sight of 100 militants?
This is the expression of subconscious fears that settled in the heads of the political leadership in 2020
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ali se mina morala pažljivo odkopati da se može prstima okolo uhvatiti da se izvadi iz zemlje.
