Ukrajina

[Nespin]

[SanskiBiser]

Tom Cooper jutros.

Good morning everybody!
Here’s my review for the last 24 hours (21 Mar 22).
CAA - Combined Arms Army (Russia)
CO – commanding officer
BTG - Battalion Tactical Group (Russia)
GMRD - Guards Motor Rifle Division (Russia)
GTA - Guards Tank Army (Russia)
GTD - Guards Tank Division (Russia)
IFV - infantry fighting vehicle
LOC - Line of Control (old frontline between Ukraine and Separatists in the Donbass region)
MANPAD – man-protable air defence system
MBT - main battle tank
MRB - Motorized Rifle Brigade
MRD - Motorized Rifle Division
PGM – precision guided munition
RFA – Russian Federation Army/Russian Armed Forces
RF-9xxxx - Russian military aviation registration
UAF – Ukrainian armed Forces
UCAV – unmanned combat aerial vehicle
VDV - Vozdushno-desantnye voyska (Russian Airborne forces)
VKS - Vozdushno-kosmicheskiye sily (Air-Space Force, Russia)
West OSK – Western Military District, RFA
XO – deputy commander
STRATEGIC
The website of the RIA Novosti seems to have mistaken a report on Russian casualties from the GenStab of Ukraine, with one of the GenStab of the Russian Federation, and has reported that the Russian armed forces lost 9,861 KIA and 16,153 WIA so far. Of course, the report was promptly removed: was a mistake that can happen to everybody – especially sensations-hungry journalists (‘who cares about that U at the end of GenStab? Quick, post it…ups!’)
There’s still some confusion in the West over what the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed was an attack with ‘super-precise hypersonic weapon’ – Kinzhal – on Kyiv, yesterday, early in the morning. The People in Need of Fresh Air (the Pentagon) say it was no Kinzhal; Deeply impressed Defeatists (generals of the German Bundeswehr) are fascinated by its speed and manoeuvrability, while the Ukrainians collected pieces of at least one P-900 Alfa (land-attack variant of the Kaliber, known as ‘SS-N-30 Sizzler’ in the West) somewhere nearby. If it was the latter, the RFA is even shorter on ballistic- and cruise missiles than anybody thought. BTW, a UAV-video released by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, and shown the shopping centre in question before it was demolished in that strike, is also shown Ukrainians firing BM-21s from the parking in front of it…
AIR
After slowing down for a few days, the VKS is gradually increasing the number of combat sorties over the battlefield: this is now somewhere between 250 and 300 a day. The UkAF is flying some 8-10 sorties, mostly by Su-27s. The Russians claimed only Ukrainian UAVs as shot down the last two days; the Ukrainian MOD claimed 1 jet, 6 UAVs, and 2 helicopters of the VKS shot down yesterday. Haven’t seen evidence for any of these.
NORTH
The last two days, the Ukrainians run a ‘small’ counteroffensive on both flanks of the 35th CAA, west of Kyiv, and seem to have secured Makariv. Towns and villages between that place and Borodyanka remain ‘contested’. In turn, the 35th VAA seems to now be entrenching north-west of Kyiv, and mining all the approaches. It’s artillery is barely within the range of the downtown.
East of Kyiv, it’s now the 2nd GCAA that is in command (i.e. a Guards Combined Arms Army…. This explains all the confusion about ‘2nd CAA or 2nd GTA’ of earlier days). Notable here is that in the last few days local Ukrainian counterattacks have destabilised the Russians to the degree where only Brovary remains under their control (3 BTGs of the 90th GTD). In other areas they’ve been forced to withdraw for 10-15km because the Ukrainians are savaging their supply columns in the rear. That said, at least a BTG, perhaps two, of the 2nd GMRD is still near the highway to Poltava, and thus this remains blocked.
Bottom line, the Russians do not have enough forces even to surround Kyiv, not to talk about assaulting it. Indeed, they seem to be so short on troops, they’re unable of at least re-launching their offensive south of the E40 highway.
NORTH-EAST
The Chernihiv-Nizhyn ‘pocket’ is holding out: all 10 BTGs of the 41st CAA that are still around are busy just keeping it under pressure, but not attacking. Also holding out are all the Ukrainian garrisons further north-east and east (like Sumy) although by-passed and surrounded by the Russians.
EAST
Having squandered most of the 47th GTD to capture Barvinkove and Izium, the CO of the 6th CAA seems to be busy bringing in reinforcements and supplies. Further east, the 20th CAA (3rd MRD) and Separatists are still trying to encircle Severodonetsk – without much success so far.
SOUTH
Attached photo is shown a T-90 of the 42nd GMRD knocked out in southern approaches to Zaporozhye, in that big Ukrainian ambush, two days ago.
A map captured from an RFA-officer KIA in the Mykolaiv area of the last few days is shown that the Russian CAA responsible for this area is actually the 49th: the 58th CAA is responsible for the area between the eastern bank of the Dnepr River and Mariupol.
I.e. after all, it wasn’t Zusko and his 58th CAA who run the advance on Odessa and Transnistria and then botched up so terribly at Voznesensk, but somebody else. This is explaining why the 810th Naval Infantry eventually ended its days squandered in street-battles for Mariupol.
With hindsight, I would say this was a mistake of the South OSK: generals there should’ve sent the 58th CAA west, and the heavier 49th CAA east… but well, who am I to say…
Anyway, I’m still studying that map and trying to find out the meaning of diverse abbreviations, but along it, the situation in the Mykolaiv-Kherson area is – roughly - something like this:
- Northern sector (Aposolove-Kyvyi Rih): 20th GMRD (3 BTGs)
- Central sector (Snihurivka): 205th MRB (1 BTG, but this suffered very heavy losses)
- Southern sector (Kherson): a group of VDV/Airborne units, including 4 weak BTGs from the 7th VDV Division, and 1 BTG from the 34th MRB….plus plenty of minor support units, and at least a ‘squadron’ worth of Orlan UAVs.
I’ll not go into more details on Ukrainian units facing them, except that these are ‘centred’ on three regular brigades. While enough to keep Mykolaiv safe, this is not enough to try liberating Kherson. That's 'not good' because it's buying time for the Russians to entrench and mine approaches to the city (in turn, the ‘outcome’ on this front so far is shown how relatively few Ukrainian units could’ve prevented the fall of Kherson, on the third day of this war…. but, sigh, that's a 'what if' and I'll not go into this any further).
Mariupol…? The city is now firmly besieged by the 58th CAA (3 BTGs of the 42nd MRD and 1-2 of the 810th Naval Infantry) from the west, and the 8th CAA (4-5 BTGs of the 150th MRD, plus Chechens) from the north and east. Logic dictates that the Ukrainians, after losing Volnovakha (to the 163rd TR/150th MRD and the Separatist 11th MRR) being pushed for nearly 100km further north, have no hope of lifting the siege. They lack the troops and have no means to challenge the VKS aerial superiority over the local frontlines. In turn, the Russians are in a rush to secure Mariupol, in order to free their forces for operations further north, but unable to conclude the siege in quick fashion.
Meanwhile, it's next to impossible to contact anybody inside Mariupol, and thus we do not get any other details but that it is regularly bombed and shelled, and there are lots of civilian casualties.
GENERAL
Few observations for the end: I recommend everybody to stop wasting his/her time with counting the number of fallen Russian generals and wishful thinking about the Russian supply problems. This is no Afghanistan or Iraq, and no fight against transnational jihadists – but a huge, conventional war, with anything than ‘finite’ numbers. Such ars are 'gulping' people and machines are incredible rates. Alone the RFA has enough generals to re-staff all of corresponding positions, two times. Moscow can go on ‘printing’ tanks like there’s no tomorrow for quite a while longer, and it is still so superior to the Ukrainians, and still capable of keeping Ukrainians on their toes (alone with the threat of a Belarusian invasion of the West), that it has enough time to bring in reinforcements and supplies.
Moreover, ‘decapitating strikes’ (see: ‘dead generals’) simply do not work: in worst case, they can get counterproductive. Should there be any doubts, check how many of Arab ‘leaders’ and ‘commanders’ have the Israelis killed over the last 75-80 years – and what’s the outcome? These are always replaced by more extreme, more determined, and more skilled commanders (should there be any doubts, check the history of the Hamas, IRGC/Hezbollah and the AQI/ISIL/ISIS/IS/Daesh...).
Actually important issue is that there is no change in position of the Russian public vis-à-vis Putin. Or if, and by all the bitching in private, the population seems to be rallying around him, often really behaving like ’members of the Red Man Sect’ (like when students of prominent Russian universities are making pro-Putin videos, in which they are demonstratively showing anti-West sentiments). At least as important is that Western governments are still letting themselves be blackmailed by master extoritionist Putin, instead of seriously blackmailing him. Just see all the panic whenever he or Lavrov are talking about nuclear alerts etc. - while not even moving their nuclear forces out of barracks…
Here the advice is actually: ignore babbling on TV, check klix actions.
Considering the RFA surely has enough artillery, air power, and conventional high explosives to level three Kyivs and six Kharkivs, this is all that matters right now, and that’s going to remain that way for a while longer. No 60 dead RFA generals could ever change anything about this.
….at least not until, say, we start seeing dozens of new TB.2-shot videos every day, showing scores of Russian artillery pieces getting knocked out….

[Chmoljo]

sta vele na ovo dusebriznici za ljudska prava koje brine ukrajinsko selotejpiranje i sibanje po straznjici...

Odmah mi iskrsnu ona slika iz Bijeljine kada cetnik udara nogom covjeka na ulici.
Braca po zlocinu.

ženu, haveru, ženu nogom u glavu. i to mrtvu.

[Mrljavi]

Sta znam, lijepo je ovo
Rusima dajem fore do 9. maja.

[elcaliente]

Sve to stoji što pričate o propagandi u Rusiji ali ljudski gubici su nešto čime se ruske porodice a pogotovo ruske majke u ovolikom broju nisu susrele od 1945. za samo tri sedmice.
Da je u pitanju odbrana Rusije od vanjskog neprijatelja to bi i oni opravdali. Ovdje je pola djece. Najmanje 5000-6000 mladih vojnika. Iz normalnog života Rusiju je neko gurnuo u ratno stanje a djeca im se vraćaju u kovčezima. Ako se ko vrati.
U vrijeme interneta svi znaju za tu poginulu i tenkovima-konzervama sprženu djecu-regrute.
Neko će za to odgovarati debelo.

5000-6000 mrtvih na 130miliona je statisticka greska. Tako ce se provuci, tako su to provlacili. Ako se ko pobuni odvuku ga u lubjanku I nakon 12 boravka u tome mjestu putin se tetovira na misku sutradan

Ja sada bas razmisljam o ovome. . Rusija zvanicno ima 145 miliona stanovnika a vjerovatno ima vise.
Neka pogine 50 0000 vojnika, to oni mjere u promilima. I vjerovatno salju jadnike iz udaljenjih i nevaznih republika a ne djecu iz Moske i St. Petersburga.

[Novosti]

Dužnosnik NATO-a: Bjelorusija bi uskoro mogla napasti Ukrajinu i sprema se dopustiti Rusiji postavljanje nuklearnog oružja na bjelorusko tlo

To citaj Bjelorusija bi uskoro mogla izvrsiti potpomognuto samoubistvo svojih vojnika u Ukrajini , ta vojska nije u stanju za ozbiljnije vojne akcije, sto kaze Robert Baric nisu bili u stanju da izvedu do kraja vojnu vjezbu nedavno a o ratovanju nekom da se i ne prica, drugi eselon da drze liniju jos i nekako, a pretpostavlja se da bi mogli izvesti neke manje upade da bi vezali ukrajinske snage za taj prostor i olaksali stanje na drugim ratistima Rusima, isto je sa Odesom, dole Rusi blefiraju desant vec sedmicama koji bi bio samoubistvo da probaju....

Ti pišeš ko da su Ukri pred Moskvom, kakve god da su OSB Ukrajincima bi bilo teško jer tad imaju 2 protivnika.

[Novosti]

Strašno koliko im zapovednika pobiše, koji amaterizam i to u jednom Specnazu

"2. sila svijeta"

[madner]

To zapravo mozda nije strasno, ako znaci da su im oficiri blizu linija. Ako nisu i ovo je do obavjestajne nadmoci Ukraine i saveznika, onda jeste strasno.

[Mrljavi]

Ovo necemo gledati u Moskvi na paradi 9. maja.

[Ima Bosne_Bice Bosne]

Odmah mi iskrsnu ona slika iz Bijeljine kada cetnik udara nogom covjeka na ulici.
Braca po zlocinu.

ženu, haveru, ženu nogom u glavu. i to mrtvu.

Da, mrtvu zenu. U pravu si.

[Kyuss]

risto đogo je mala maca za ove. i nakon toga imaš ove iz prekodrinskog pašaluka koji to puše i ovdje sole pamet bez sankcija.

[SanskiBiser]

To citaj Bjelorusija bi uskoro mogla izvrsiti potpomognuto samoubistvo svojih vojnika u Ukrajini , ta vojska nije u stanju za ozbiljnije vojne akcije, sto kaze Robert Baric nisu bili u stanju da izvedu do kraja vojnu vjezbu nedavno a o ratovanju nekom da se i ne prica, drugi eselon da drze liniju jos i nekako, a pretpostavlja se da bi mogli izvesti neke manje upade da bi vezali ukrajinske snage za taj prostor i olaksali stanje na drugim ratistima Rusima, isto je sa Odesom, dole Rusi blefiraju desant vec sedmicama koji bi bio samoubistvo da probaju....

Ti pišeš ko da su Ukri pred Moskvom, kakve god da su OSB Ukrajincima bi bilo teško jer tad imaju 2 protivnika.

Ja ti prenosim ono sto zapadni analiticari govore, osim pritiska i vezivanja ukrajinske vojske i jedinica prema bjeloruskim od Bjelorusa se ne ocekuje nista znacajno u vojnom smislu, nisu nikakav game changer, jedino da suncokrete po Ukrajini ista stvar kao sa Cecenima kako kaze onaj DNR komandant neki dan dobri samo za drugi i treci eselon...Ali za Putina i putiniste ce to biti nesto veliko nismo vise sami, poslije hipersonicnih turbo raketa (za koje iz US znaju da nisu uopste koristene) sad su i Bjelorusi s nama na kraju ce i Transistrija da krene u ofanizivu kao 3 strana...nikakva to dva protivniak nisu to je sve 1 protivnik, u srednjovjekovnim terminima Ruski vazal Bjelorusija. Razmisljaj o posljedicama u Bjelorusiji ako krenu - ne onim koje ce se spolja uzrokovati - vec unutrasnjim...krenuli bi oni davno da nije kao sto jeste...

[Mrljavi]

Kad vozis ovo ne pomazu uniforme, brade i steroidi da izgledas zajebano. Ne ide ebem li ga

[zilog]

Mobilizacija znači objava rata. Sada ga ne vode kao rat.

Sve ukazuje da predstoji neki zestok false flag u Rusiji (nije da vec nemaju iskustva) i zvanicni ulazak u rat.
Bez mobilizacije, Putler ne moze ostvariti ni jedan ratni cilj, koji bi ga odrzao na vlasti.
Ako, bez nekog sasvim novog dogadjaja, proglasi mobilizaciju, to bi znacilo da je pogrijesio u inicijalnoj procjeni.
Ustav se ne mijenja, da bi ostavio na vlasti, covjeka koji pravi takve greske u procjenama.
Dakle treba mu dogadjaj na teritoriji Rusije, koji ce mu dati slagvort za mobilizaciju, a ujedno i podici moral ruskih vojnika.

[madner]

Checheni su tu da plate danak u krvi za beneficije koje su dobili od Rusije i zauzmu koji grad. Nista vise ni manje se ne ocekuje, niti su opremljeni za nesto drugo.

[jao_situacije]

na kraju će da uvezu inžinjere iz sirije

Vreća od 25 kg amonijum nitrata oko 40 maraka pa ti vidi.

Kad je bubnulo skladište u Bejrutu sjebalo je grad od 2 miliona stanovnika i to malo skladište od 2750 tona. Imali su 300.000 beskucnika i ukupnu stetu od 15 milijardi $.

ne bi me čudilo da krenu improvizirati rusi

[madner]

Mobilizacija znači objava rata. Sada ga ne vode kao rat.

Sve ukazuje da predstoji neki zestok false flag u Rusiji (nije da vec nemaju iskustva) i zvanicni ulazak u rat.
Bez mobilizacije, Putler ne moze ostvariti ni jedan ratni cilj, koji bi ga odrzao na vlasti.
Ako, bez nekog sasvim novog dogadjaja, proglasi mobilizaciju, to bi znacilo da je pogrijesio u inicijalnoj procjeni.
Ustav se ne mijenja, da bi ostavio na vlasti, covjeka koji pravi takve greske u procjenama.
Dakle treba mu dogadjaj na teritoriji Rusije, koji ce mu dati slagvort za mobilizaciju, a ujedno i podici moral ruskih vojnika.

Previse razmisljate u okvirima SADa. Hitler je 1939 ubjedio Njemce jer je imao plodno tlo.

Sljedeci korak za Ruse je da popune gubitke ovih formacija i pokusaju ponovo ostvariti parcijalne ciljeve. To nece biti uspjesno i onda im ostaje samo mrcvarenje ili puna mobilizacija.

[SanskiBiser]

Kad vozis ovo ne pomazu uniforme, brade i steroidi da izgledas zajebano. Ne ide ebem li ga

Sta kaze onaj DNR komandant neki dan, bio je klip, primjer gluposti Cecena na ratistu, u Mauripolu kaze uzeli kamion djuture svi se natrpali i pod punim gasom krenuli u grad i kad se zapucalo po njima kaze poiskakali iz kamiona i umjesto da odu u zaklone i odu medju zgrade okolo oni poceli bjezati nazad. Kamion izgorio, par ih se uspjelo izvuci zivih i vratiti nazad...poslije toga bacili ih u drugi i treci eselon...

[drndalo]

ima istine u onome što je postavio...

https://www.klix.ba/vijesti/svijet/supr ... /220321115

I ko je doticna gospoja? Ko joj je suprug? Je'l pise u clanku da su za Ukrajinu a protiv Putina, je'l pise da su uzeli pare od naroda direkno, iz drzavne riznice ili kase nekog preduzeca?
Ukrajina je zemlja sa pğreko 40 miliona stanovnika, to ti je kao stanovnistvo dvije bivse Juge, povrsinski najveca zemlja u Evropi nakon Rusije, sto ce reci da je to kao povrsina tri bivse Juge...normalno ej da ima i milionera....sad odakle gospoji novac to ne znamo...znamo samo da ga je htjela iznijeti iz zemlje u kojoj bukti rat....

Mozemo li uopste pretpostaviti koje i kolike vrece bi sa sobom nosile gdje Izetbegovic, Dodik und Covic? Men’s’cini da bi ovo sa slika bio samo kusur... A koliko smo puta veca zemlja od UKR?

[Mrljavi]

Checheni su tu da plate danak u krvi za beneficije koje su dobili od Rusije i zauzmu koji grad. Nista vise ni manje se ne ocekuje, niti su opremljeni za nesto drugo.

Danak ce platiti sigurno, a ja jebem grad koji ovi zauzmu. Eventualno ponegdje mogu upucati praznu zgradu i "spasiti" dijete iz podruma.

[Naslovnica]

5000-6000 mrtvih na 130miliona je statisticka greska. Tako ce se provuci, tako su to provlacili. Ako se ko pobuni odvuku ga u lubjanku I nakon 12 boravka u tome mjestu putin se tetovira na misku sutradan

Ja sada bas razmisljam o ovome. . Rusija zvanicno ima 145 miliona stanovnika a vjerovatno ima vise.
Neka pogine 50 0000 vojnika, to oni mjere u promilima. I vjerovatno salju jadnike iz udaljenjih i nevaznih republika a ne djecu iz Moske i St. Petersburga.

Za ovih nekoliko sedmica agresije, ruski gubitci se približavaju ukupnim gubitcima koje su imali u Afganistanu za 10 godina, a za koji znamo kako se završio po Ruse.
Trenutna cifra agresorskih gubitaka za ovih nekoliko sedmica je približno jednaka zbiru gubitaka u oba čečenska rata.
Uz naznaku da se ratu u Ukrajini (i rastu gubitaka na agresorskoj strani) ne nazire kraj.
Totalno irelevantno sa vojnog aspekta ove agresije to što Rusija ima 145 miliona stanovnika.

[zigzag]

Sovjetski savez u punoj snazi je bio u Afganistanu.
Ovdje je u pitanju ruska vojska a na drugoj strani protivnik sa opremom koja je tehnološki sve naprednija. Tenkove rastavlja na proste faktore.

[ultrajvosa 1987]

Kad vozis ovo ne pomazu uniforme, brade i steroidi da izgledas zajebano. Ne ide ebem li ga

Koliko su ovim retardima dali nafte za ovo vozanje tamo vamo, mogla se ona kolona kod Kijeva pokrenut

[Gandalf]

Strašno koliko im zapovednika pobiše, koji amaterizam i to u jednom Specnazu

"2. sila svijeta"

Još jedan suncokret sa šiškama. Što ste gradili vojne karijere ubijajući sirotinju, gradili ste. Vjerovatno si svi ovi šiška oficiri očekivali piknik u Ukrajini. Pa kada pokupe cvijeće sa tenkova, zaputili bi se u najbliži konc.logor da uživaju u torturama onih koji su imali hrabrosti da im se suprostave. Ovako lijepo, ništa od toga, čika Javelin ih je pretvorio u vreću đubriva.

[Mrljavi]

Sta kaze onaj DNR komandant neki dan, bio je klip, primjer gluposti Cecena na ratistu, u Mauripolu kaze uzeli kamion djuture svi se natrpali i pod punim gasom krenuli u grad i kad se zapucalo po njima kaze poiskakali iz kamiona i umjesto da odu u zaklone i odu medju zgrade okolo oni poceli bjezati nazad. Kamion izgorio, par ih se uspjelo izvuci zivih i vratiti nazad...poslije toga bacili ih u drugi i treci eselon...

Najgore je sto su oni sami kontali da ce se neko uplasiti zbog reputacije svemogucih "cecenskih ratnika".
Separatisti su prekaljeni borci, strasno motivisani, vjerovatno najbolje ruske jedinici u ovom ratu, a najlosije opremljeni.
Bradati Ceceni obukom i iskustvom debelo ispod nasih airsoft klubova, a ubjedljivo najbolje opremljeni.