Ukrajina

[sbdoge]

Nemoguće je da osvoji čitavu Ukrajinu, ne-mo-guće, patio se sa Khersonom 6 dana skoro 7, a Kherson je 20x manji od Kijeva i 10x manj od Odesse i od Lyeva, da bi osvojio Kyev mora ga sravnati sa zemljom doslovice svaku stambenu zgradu, svaki blok i svaku ulicu, drugačije grad od 3-3,5 miliona ljudi ne možeš osvojiti taman da pošalješ 100 000 ljudi nemoguće je, eh, nakon toga sve i da ga osvoji tu će bit gubitci masovni jer će borba za Kyev trajati minimalno danima ako ne i mjesecima osim ako ga ne sravna kao što sam već rekao, uz te gubitke onda bi bilo suludo krenuti na Lyev koji je u boljem položaju od Kyeva recimo jer ima malo brda i planina, taj dio Ukrajine jedini to ima, ostalo je ravnica sve, Odessu je također teško osvojiti jer je pola grada poluotok-otok, pola nije, već su minirali plaže sve i prilaze gradu i kao što je gradonačelnik Odesse rekao već, miš ne može ući ni izaći iz grada.

[HarTar]

Tu je Cheli sigurno sa drugim nickom, takvi ljudi ne odustaju

Ne vjerujem, nisam primjetio nikoga od rusofila sa bar gram mozga.... Jedino Čeli i Čapljina su bili inteligentni ljudi...

[sbdoge]

VW i IKEA odoše iz Rusije

[dale cooper]

Odlična analiza Putinovog lika i djela i trenutne situacije.

"War brought Vladimir Putin to power in 1999. Now, it must bring him down
Jonathan Littell"

Twenty-two years ago, a vicious war brought Vladimir Putin to power. Ever since, war has remained one of his main tools, which he has used without flinching throughout his reign. Vladimir Putin exists thanks to war, has thrived through war. Let us now hope that a war will finally bring him down.

In August 1999, a then-unknown Vladimir Putin was named prime minister when his predecessor refused to condone a full reinvasion of Chechnya. Putin, however, was ready, and in return for their unconditional support he granted the military a free rein, allowing them to avenge their humiliating 1996 defeat in blood and fire. On the night of 31 December, an ageing and broken Boris Yeltsin stepped down, handing the presidency like a gift to the newcomer. In March 2000, after famously promising to “grease the terrorists even in the outhouse”, Putin was triumphally elected president. With the exception of his four years as prime minister (2008-2012), he has ruled Russia ever since.

I returned to Chechnya as an aid worker when the second war began. In February 2000, I had dinner with Sergey Kovalev, the great Russian human rights defender, and I asked him the question on everyone’s lips: who was this new unknown president? Who was Putin? I still remember Kovalev’s answer: “You want to know who Vladimir Putin is, young man? Vladimir Putin is a lieutenant colonel of the KGB. And do you know what a lieutenant colonel of the KGB is? Absolutely nothing.” What Kovalev meant was that a man who had never even made full colonel was simply a small-minded operative, incapable of thinking ahead more than a move or two. And while Putin, over his 22 years in power, has grown immensely in stature and experience, I still believe the late Kovalev was fundamentally right.

Tactically, however, Putin soon proved brilliant, especially at exploiting the weakness and divisions of the west. It took him years to crush the Chechens and install a puppet regime there, but he succeeded. In 2008, four months after Nato promised a path to accession for Ukraine and Georgia, he gathered his armies for “maneuvers” at the Georgian border and invaded the country in five days, recognizing the independence of two breakaway “republics”. The western democracies mumbled protests, and did practically nothing.

In 2014, when the Ukrainian people, after a bloody revolution, overthrew their pro-Russian president, who had turned his back on Europe fully to align himself with Moscow, Putin swiftly invaded and annexed Crimea, the first overt landgrab in Europe since the second world war. When our leaders, shocked and bewildered, responded with sanctions, he upped the ante and provoked uprisings in Donbas, a Russian-speaking area of Ukraine, using his forces covertly to crush a weak Ukrainian army and carve out two new breakaway “republics”, where a low-level war has simmered ever since.

Thus he began what the French would call his fuite en avant, his “flight forward”. At every step, the west condemned and attempted to punish him, with mild and ineffective measures, in the vain hope of discouraging him. And at every step, he doubled down, and went further.

Putin is a small man, physically, and growing up in postwar Leningrad must have been tough for him. It clearly taught him a lesson: if you are the smaller boy, hit first, hit hard and keep hitting. And the bigger boys will learn to fear you, and will back off. It is a lesson he has taken to heart. The US’s military budget for 2021 was about $750bn, Europe’s combined budget $200bn, and Russia’s about $65bn. Yet he still scares us a lot more than we scare him. It’s the advantage of fighting like a cornered rat, rather than like a pudgy boy gone soft on a diet of Coca-Cola, Instagram and 80 years of peace in Europe.

Putin must have rejoiced when the west, eager to freeze the active conflict in Donbas, quietly allowed Crimea off the discussion table, effectively conceding the illegal annexation to Russia. He saw that while sanctions hurt, they didn’t bite deep, and would allow him to continue building his military and extending his power. He saw that Germany, the greatest economic power in Europe, was unwilling to wean itself off his gas and his markets. He saw that he could buy European politicians, including former German and French prime ministers, and install them on the boards of his state-controlled companies. He saw that even the countries that nominally opposed his moves still kept repeating the mantras of “diplomacy”, “reset”, “the need to normalize relations”. He saw that each time he pushed, the west would roll over and then come fawning, hoping for an ever-elusive “deal”: Barack Obama, Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump – the list is long.

Putin began murdering his opponents, at home and abroad. When it happened, we squeaked, but it never went further. When Obama, in 2013, callously ignored his own “red line” in Syria, refusing to intervene after Bashar al-Assad’s poison gassing of a civilian neighborhood in Damascus, Putin paid attention. In 2015, he sent his own forces into Syria, developing his naval base in Tartus and gaining a new air base in Khmeimin. Over the next seven years, he used Syria as a testing ground for his military, granting invaluable field experience to his officer corps and honing their tactics, coordination and equipment, all the while bombing and slaughtering thousands of Syrians, and helping Assad to regain control of large swaths of the country.

In January 2018, he began confronting western powers directly in the Central African Republic, sending his Wagner mercenaries there. The same process is now under way in Mali, where the military junta, with Russian support, has just forced the French anti-Isis mission out of the country. Russia is also actively involved in Libya, foiling western attempts to bring peace to the country, and deploying forces along the southern flank of the Mediterranean, in a position to directly threaten European interests. Every time, we protested, flailed, and did exactly nothing. And every time, he took good note.

Ukraine represents the moment when he finally decided to put his cards on the table. He clearly believes he is strong enough to openly defy the west by launching the first land war in Europe since 1945. And he believes it because everything we have done, or rather failed to do over the last 22 years, has taught him that we are weak.

Putin might be a tactical genius, but he is incapable of thinking strategically. Our leaders have refused to truly understand him, but he has also had no interest in understanding us. Completely isolated for the past two years because of Covid, he seems to have become increasingly paranoid and imbued with his own pan-Slavic, neo-imperialist and Orthodox ideology, originally a wholly artificial creation designed to give a thin veneer of legitimacy to his corrupt regime.

He seems to have truly swallowed his own propaganda when it comes to the Ukrainians. Did he believe they would welcome their Russian “liberators”? That they would just surrender? If he did, he was very wrong. The Ukrainians are fighting, and though outnumbered and outgunned, they are fighting hard. Schoolteachers, office clerks, housewives, artists, students, DJs and drag queens are taking up guns and going out to shoot Russian soldiers, many of whom are mere children who have no idea what they are doing there. Ukraine is not giving up an inch of ground, and it seems Putin will not be able to take their cities without leveling them, as he once leveled Grozny and Aleppo. And do not think that just because Kyiv is a “European” city, Putin will shrink from leveling it. Bombing has already started.


After the initial shock, the western democracies – finally! – seem to have understood the existential threat that Putin poses to the postwar world order, to Europe, and to our “way of life” which he so despises. Crushing sanctions are being put into place, no matter what the economic cost to us. Arms are pouring into Ukraine. Germany seems to have realized overnight that it can no longer continue to depend on the kindness of others for its security, and that it needs an army of its own, a real and functional one. Russia is being massively isolated on the international level, and its economy and capacities will be severely diminished.

But this is not enough. As long as Putin remains in power, he will continue to double down, to push further, and to do as much harm as he can. Because he hates the west, and because his power is entirely based on violence: not just the threat, but the systematic use of it. It is the only way he knows how to behave. Can we really believe his nuclear threat is just a bluff? Can we afford to? As long as he continues to rule Russia, no one will be safe. No one.

The only way out of this crisis is to make Putin’s failure in Ukraine so disastrous for Russia and its genuine interests that his own elite will have no choice but to remove him. And for this much more could be done. Our governments seemed focused on punishing the Russian “oligarchs”, but they must understand that Putin has nothing but contempt for them, and doesn’t care a fig for their opinions or their assets; he considers them mere cash cows, there to be milked for his needs.

The western sanctions need to target the people who actually enable Putin’s actions: his entire senior security and administrative apparatus. Not just the few dozen people already targeted, but the thousands of second-tier officials in the presidential administration, the military and the security services. These people are not billionaires, but all are multimillionaires, with much to lose. Ruin the lives of these several thousand people, and let them judge who is to blame. Seize the mansions in England and Spain, forbid the vacations in Courchevel and Sardinia, throw their children unceremoniously out of Harvard and Oxford, and let them stay in Russia, with no way out and no imported goods to spend their stolen money on. Make the cost a real one, a personal one, and let them see if it is worth the price to maintain a deranged, power-hungry tsar on his throne. Let them decide if they want to follow him into the abyss.

Over the past 22 years Russia has fallen prey to a demented, corrupt and totalitarian regime, one we have in many ways facilitated. But it is a great country, one I have loved deeply, and one that has produced wonderful, humane, just men and women. It deserves better than this clique of thieves looting its wealth under the cover of illusory imperial fantasies, and ravaging its neighbors to maintain their grip on total power. Russia deserves freedom, the same freedom Ukraine has painfully obtained over the past three decades. A ceasefire in Ukraine is a vital, urgent first step, and a full Russian withdrawal a second one. But after that, Putin must go.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... r-chechnya

[stakasa]

Na stranu emocije i simpatije ali mislim da gro ucesnika u diskusiji previse ocekuje od ukrajinskog otpora. Bore se oni lavovski, ruski plan da se to rjesi za par dana nije prosao ali se u biti nista nije promjenilo. Idioti ce napadat dok ne ispune ciljeve. Zapad ce likovat. Kina ce se bogatit. A cijenu ce platit Ukrajina. Teritorijem i ljudstvom. Sto poginulim sto raseljenim. A platice i oni koji su izabrali pogresnu stranu, to jest prorusku. Sreca pa u predsjednistvu BiH sjedi Zeljko Komsic, moglo je ovo lako biti i 1:2.
Treba malo prizemit i gledat kako da se najbolje iskoristi sansa koja se je BiH ukazala od marta 92-e. Razmisljanje jeste cinicno ali kada je u pitanju Bosna i Hercegovina smatram i da je maksimalno opravdano. Krajnje je vrijeme da se i nama zar okrene

pa nama ne moze bit vise u korist nego da se rusima ovo tamo oduzi... s tim da ja vjerujem da ce ukrajina dobit na kraju, ne moze se narod pobijedit osim da ga komplet unistis, a sto vise budu nanosili patnje i mizerije ukrima to ce im ukri na duze staze bit sve dalji i dalji.
jedini pravi gubitnik ovde ce biti ruski narod. hem ce izginut na tudjoj zemlji, hem izolacija od ostatka svijeta,, hem ce biti na krivoj strani istorije.

I ja mislim da ce se oduzit. Kao i da nama to odgovara. Ali isto tako mislim da nema sanse da se onaj monstrum iz Kremlja zaustavi prije nego dobije sto je naumio. A na kraju ce dobit. Ili ce ostavit Ukrajini jedan dio oko Lviva i onda ce se to prikazivat kao pobjeda. Davno se je presla ta granica kad je na njega uticalo sta drugi misle o tome sto radi

[Truba]

ja sve kontam da to nije neki plan da se unutra ne postave kakve bubice ili mete

ja sam prvih par dana kontao da ih nisu ostavili namjerno ovi omladinci, pa da onda uđu vdv (padobranci) nakon par dana na gotovo sa opremom koja je na mjestima gdje treba biti

izgleda da nije to fazon

Sta ocekivati od rocnika ako se uspanice
Ali kako se opravdati nadredjenima kad dodju gologuzi i bez rana napustili opremu na terenu

[animals]

Pa tadasnja JNA, se ne moze porediti sa danasnjom Rusijom..
a kako je se Posavina a kako srednja Bosna branila..
malo razmisli..

Koliko se sjecam Posavinu su oklopom odradili.

A Ukrajina, oklop, avioni, helikopteri, rakete..

[HarTar]

Radnici lokalne građevinske kompanije u Kijevu vare protivtenkovske barikade za puteve oko grada.

Kijev je i dalje pod kontrolom Ukrajine, iako su napadi nastavljeni, 40 milja duga kolona ruskih vozila sada 30 km (18 milja) nalazi se od centra grada.

Granatiranje se nemilosrdno nastavlja u još jednom ključnom gradu na obali Crnog mora, Mariupolju. Zvaničnici su jutros upozorili da Rusi gađaju civilnu infrastrukturu.

[mist]

Samo pometes radnju na kraju dana i katanac

[A_A_AKCIJA]

GLAVNA KOLONA JE KONACNO NAPADNUTA I POTVRDA.
SLIKA NIJE vezana za napad...da se ne pecaju dzabastara slika ..

But we’ve seen indications that we are in no position to refute [Ukraine claims they have hit the convoy].”

I ne samo to, nego su na putu da je presjeku i okruže. Napadaju sa tri strane.

[animals]

Pa tadasnja JNA, se ne moze porediti sa danasnjom Rusijom..
a kako je se Posavina a kako srednja Bosna branila..
malo razmisli..

Zapravo se moze porediti. Kvalitetom su Rusi bolji, ali ne puno.

Kako ne puno..
pa nema ovdje uopce, pjesadijski borbi..
samo rokanje svim i svacim..
kako se odbraniti od toga..

[shbc]

čuj što?

zbog agresije jedne države na drugu državu i kršenja povelje un-a, te sporazuma u budimpešti iz 1994te. i što se zna glavni cilj agresora, izbiti na grance EU i ostvariti dominaciju nad istim.

plašiš se trećeg svjetskog?

Pa i SAD je to radila, i Rusija je prije Ukrajine izvršila agresiju na Gruziju i Čečeniju, pa nikom ništa.

Plus sto su Rusi do 2014. bili na granicama EU preko marionetske vlade Ukrajine pa ni tad nisu uspjeli razjebati niti ostvariti dominaciju nad Evropom. Na Ruse se gleda kao na neku vanzemaljsku silu, a realnost je da su daleko iza SAD-a samog, a da ne govorimo NATO saveza + par clanica EU koje nisu u NATO. Da nemaju nuklearku ne bi im bili nikakva prijetnja.

Ovo je zapadu odlicno doslo. Unistice Ruse ekonomski a nece morati ginuti. Dodatno su zbili svoje redove i imaju izgovor da pociste i ojacaju pozicije u onim dijelovima gdje su im Rusi rovarili (Balkan prije svega).

Rusi poslije Ukrajine mogu najdalje udariti na Moldaviju, ali poslije toga im je rampa. Niti ce smjeti, niti moci dalje.

[animals]

Mislim, jedino se malo taktika ratovanja moze porediti sa Vukovarom..
napad oklopom, i iz zraka i artiljerijom..
a ti cekas protiv oklopnim naoruzanjem --

[geralt]

Jako interesantan thread koji objasnjava napustena ruska vozila - nekad nije u pitanju nedostatak benzina, vec im pucaju gume od neodrzavanja. Takodjer objasnjava zasto se ovo desava na sjeveru Ukrajine, ali ne i na jugu:

[gold'n'brown]

Ima navodno i Zločina Ukrajinske Vojske

Civilima navodno nedaju izaći iz Grada.
Na kontrolnoj točki ubijeni čovjek i žena.
Na druge koji su došli u pomoć otvorena vatra. Sudbina neizvjesna. Lokacija nepoznata.

Zar moze neko shareovati klovna Pernara?

[animals]

Ima navodno i Zločina Ukrajinske Vojske

Civilima navodno nedaju izaći iz Grada.
Na kontrolnoj točki ubijeni čovjek i žena.
Na druge koji su došli u pomoć otvorena vatra. Sudbina neizvjesna. Lokacija nepoznata.

Budaletina teska..

[eltroxin]

Herkules sa 2.000 norveških protivtenkovskih projektila M72 kao pomoc Ukrajini.

A jbg nije da sam probirljiv ali ovo je dobro za grada da pucas iz prozora na laki oklop ili zivu silu ne i za ozbiljne oklope

Pa to mu i jeste namjenja. Neces kamion unistavati javelinima.
Ovo je jeftino oruzje, treba ti bukvalno 5 minuta da obucis ljude da ga koriste, male mase tako da ga mozes vucati sa sobom.

[noviforumas]

Sokira me da su teoreticari urote, anti-vakseri i slicni maloumnici poput Pernara na strani Rusije.

[animals]

Mislim da je jedina sansa Ukrajine povlacenje u gradove..
a Rusi nece u gradove da ulaze, prvo sto znaju da bi to bilo groblje za njih,
a drugo, civilne zrtve..

[Infotreker]

U toku miniranje plaza u okolini Odese (Ukrajinski izvori):


Ruska flota u pripremi za desant u okolini Odese (Americki izvor):


Zarobljena napredna vozila Ukrajinske vojske u okolini Harkova (Ruski izvori):


Zarobljeni Ukrajinski dobrovoljci (Ruski izvori):


Pregovori u Bjelorusiji (Vise izvora):


Moguce direktno ukljucenje Bjeloruske vojske u napadu na Ukrajinu (Ruski i Ukrajinski izvori):


Cernigov, hemijsko-petrolejski kombinat u vatri:

[lajkujMe]

Navodno Rusi Smaknuli pucnjem u glavu Gradonacelnika Gostomela

[jeza u ledja]

Za ove sto postavljaju slike Groznog ili spominju Alepo. Mislim, razumijem poentu, ali nesto sumnjam da Rusi gledaju isto na Grozni i na Kijev. Nadam se da do niceg slicnog nece doci, ali slike razorenog Kijeva ili Odese bi imale traumatican uticaj na prosjecnog Rusa, bilo kakvog politickog opredjeljenja.
Sta ce reci, sami se razorili?

Sumnjam da iko zele da do toga dodje, ali ako se ovako nastavi sve je moguce. Sto neko rece rat je ko pozar.

[Palmalma]

Pernar je bolesnik, ali onaj zesci.

[Manual]

[GAU8]

Sokira me da su teoreticari urote, anti-vakseri i slicni maloumnici poput Pernara na strani Rusije.

Treba biti jasno prije svega ko je idejni tvorac ovih modernih antivax pokreta i slicnih. Rusija.
Formiranje stava i javnog misljenja kroz ciljane dezinformacije za ciljane grupe ljudi...

Tesko je znam, za skontati i prihvatiti, ali je tako.

Cilj je podrivanje demokratije, i stvaranje blagonaklonosti ka nacionalno "osvijestenim"....

Gadna vremena, i to ti je..