Ali_G wrote: ↑15/01/2021 18:54
Vasa misljenja sta se ponovo desava u Manausu?
U septembru su islo clanci da je tamo izmedju 45 i 65% ljudi bilo u kontaktu sa virusom, pandemija u padu. Sad situacija da u bolnicama nema kisika, ogroman broj hospitaliziranih, umrlih...
Pominje se brazilski soj. Vakcina bi kao trebala djelovati i na njega, al odakle onda ponovni skok?
Sta se desava? Pa ono sto struka od pocetka govori: sarena laza zvana kolektivni imunitet bez vakcine koji je izgovor koji koriste losi politicari kako bi opravdali veliki broj preminulih.
Ovo je clanak iz oktobra.
The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19
We show that the number of people who got infected was really high — reaching 66% by the end of the first wave,” Sabino says. Her group concluded1 that this large infection rate meant that the number of people who were still vulnerable to the virus was too small to sustain new outbreaks — a phenomenon called herd immunity. Another group in Brazil reached similar conclusions2.
Such reports from Manaus, together with comparable arguments about parts of Italy that were hit hard early in the pandemic, helped to embolden proposals to chase herd immunity. The plans suggested letting most of society return to normal, while taking some steps to protect those who are most at risk of severe disease. That would essentially allow the coronavirus to run its course, proponents said.
But
epidemiologists have repeatedly smacked down such ideas. “Surrendering to the virus” is not a defensible plan, says Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, California. Such an approach would lead to a catastrophic loss of human lives without necessarily speeding up society’s return to normal, he says. “We have never successfully been able to do it before, and it will lead to unacceptable and unnecessary untold human death and suffering.”
But
public-health experts don’t usually talk about herd immunity as a tool in the absence of vaccines. “I’m a bit puzzled that it’s now used to mean how many people need to get infected before this thing stops,” says Marcel Salathé, an epidemiologist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne.
Many researchers say pursuing herd immunity is a bad idea. “
Attempting to reach herd immunity via targeted infections is simply ludicrous,” Andersen says. “In the US, probably one to two million people would die.”
There’s no magic wand we can use here,” Andersen says. “
We have to face reality — never before have we reached herd immunity via natural infection with a novel virus, and SARS-CoV-2 is unfortunately no different.” Vaccination is the only ethical path to herd immunity, he says. How many people will need to be vaccinated — and how often — will depend on many factors, including how effective the vaccine is and how long its protection lasts.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02948-4
Sad ces dobiti more drugih odgovora. Da je virus mutirao, da je odgovorno krcenje sume u Amazonu, da su krive klimatske promjene samo da se odbrani ideja da je postignut kolektivni imunitet. Ali ovo sto sam postavila je stav epidemiologa i ljudi koji se bave javnim zdravljem.
