Ali_G wrote: ↑01/07/2020 21:13
Mogy87 wrote: ↑01/07/2020 20:35
Ali_G wrote: ↑01/07/2020 19:00
Ima smisla. Za nadati se da ce biti tako.
Mada upitno mi je i dalje uporno testiranje asimptomatskih pacijenata. Da li se neko uopste bavi istrazivanjem koje su karakteristike superseadera?
To je pitanje od milion dolara. Drugi forumas je pisao o tom fenomenu. Kad bi znali koji faktori dovode do toga da neko zarazi jednog ili eventualno dva, neko nijednog, a neko 20+ ljudi borba s virusom bi bila daleko laksa.
Definitivno su te stvari oko prenosenja cudne. Znam za slucaj gdje je covjek zarazen, 5 dana pod temperaturom isao na posao, na kraju upala pluca i Podhrastovi. Na prvom testu kompletna porodica i kolege iz kancelarije negativni.
A da li ima neki opipljiv dokaz da su asimptomatski slucajevi oni koji izmedju ostalog sire zarazu?
Ima vise studija. Zbog perioda inkubacije i cinjenice da sirenje virusa pocinje prije pojave simptoma zna se desiti da pacijenti koji se okarakterisu kao asimptomatski u momentu testiranja su ustvari u predsimptomatskoj fazi tj. razviju simptome kasnije.
"While symptomatic disease is frequently associated with infectivity, there is speculation that for SARS-CoV-2, the latent period (time from exposure to onset of infectiousness) may be shorter than the incubation period (time from exposure to onset of symptoms), leaving a window of time when the patient is infectious but not yet exhibiting symptoms. This is supported by a study of viral loads in Chinese patients, which indicated that pre-symptomatic viral transmission likely occurred.13 Using data from infector-infectee pairs, the authors estimated that viral transmission may have occurred two to three days prior to symptom onset in up to 44% of patients, indicating a transmission pattern more similar to seasonal influenza than SARS-CoV. Of the 157 locally acquired infections identified in Singapore, ten secondary cases (6.4%) were likely acquired prior to the development of symptoms in the index cases. Infections happened on average one to three days before symptom onset in the index cases.22 A familial cluster was identified in Anyang, China where one asymptomatic carrier never developed symptoms but tested positive for the virus, and likely infected five family members.23 In a point-prevalence survey of a skilled nursing facility in King County, Washington, 27 out of 48 (56%) with positive tests were asymptomatic at the time of testing. Given an estimated doubling time of 3.4 days (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.3) in that facility, viral shedding from asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic residents likely contributed to early transmission to other residents and staff members.24"
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7266417/
Ili slucaj starackog doma u Washingtonu:
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2009758
da virus nauci da ne mora bas totalno zeznuti domacina. Jer i on samo trazi svoje mjesto pod suncem
