vivaldi wrote:uh..nije to bas lako pojednostaviti jer ima vise zlokobnih tendencija uz vec postojeca sranja pa ne znam kako to sve povezem, ali probacu pa ko razumije-razumije
sve golfske zemlje i rusija pate od tzv dutch diseasea - to je ekonomski pojam koji oznacava preveliku zavisnost jedne ekonomije od jednog resursa, u ovom slucaju nafte jelte..
ove preniske cijene vec podugo traju i vrse strasan pritisak na poemnte ekonomije, ali pitanje je koliko ko moze durat.
zemlje golfa imaju ogormne devizne rezerve, ali se prebrzo tope jer se rashod nisu promjenili - ljudi se ponasaju ko da je cijene ista. za razliku od njih rusija ima jaku guvernerku koja je u datim okolnostima napravila fenomenalan posao i ekspresno se adaptirala na novonastale okolnosti i minimizirala stetu sto je moguce manje.
medjutim, dugorocno je svima nemoguce trpiti ove niske cijene jer ce cak i zapad pocet trpit posljedcie zbog deflacije jer je cijene nafte preniska, a onda to dovodi do stagnaciji i rececije (bez blage kontrolisane inflacije nema razvoja).
medjutim sada se naziru dvije nove opasnosti i obje dolaze iz amerike - ovih dana se ocekuje da amerika po prvi put nakon ne znam ni ja koliko decenija dozvoli izvoz svoje nafte, a to ce dodatno potopit cijene nafte pa ce pritisak na naftne zemlje biti jos veci.
problem golfskih zemalja sto bukvalno svi zive na drzavnoj sisi - guzovaca ala bosna na steroidima, ali to kupuje socijalni mir i harmoniju u drustvu koje po mnogo cemu u kurcu. ali sad zbog sve manjih prihoda od nafte i prebrzog topljenja rezervi, drzava mora udait i po dzepu gradjana, a upravo taj dubok dzep stvara privid harmonije sto moze opasno uzburkat strasi koje su u saudiji vec svakako uzdrmane u borbi klanova.
druga americka odluka je najvaljeno povecanje fedovo povecanje kamatne stope sto moze dovesti do vleikog povlacenja kapitala iz ostatka svijeta u ameriku koji je pobjegao prije 10-ak godina jer je zbog nulte kamatne stope bilo neisplatno drzat pare u americi.
to povlacenje bi npr tesko moglo pogodit turke jer su putem raznih fonodva ameri ulozili ogormne pare. mislim da je najvise otislo u gradjevsniki sektor, a ako gradjevinski balon pukne, turci bi moglo naglo nizbrdo u zavisnosti od toga da li ce povlacenje americkog kapitala dovesti do opste panike inveszitora pa odjednom svi pocnu povlacit pare.
evga ovoga su naravno svi svjesni, a kako ce i u kojem obimu reagovat tesko je reci
Malo si ga profulao s podacima
PRESS RELEASE: On Aug. 14, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its ‘AA/A-1+’
long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Kuwait. The outlook is stable.
RATIONALE
Prices for crude oilhave fallen by around 50% in the last year. The sharp fall in oil prices over the past year has significantly
affected Kuwait’s fiscal and current account (flow) positions. Nevertheless,
our ratings on Kuwait remain unchanged as they continue to be supported by the
sovereign’s high levels of accumulated wealth and very strong external and
fiscal asset (stock) positions–the Kuwaiti government, via the Kuwait
Investment Authority (KIA), has accumulated substantial assets through oil and
gas production over the years, saving its oil wealth in what we consider to be
a prudent manner. The government’s large net asset position, which we estimate
at over three times GDP at the end of 2015, is a significant ratings strength
providing a substantial buffer to lower oil prices. Nevertheless, the ratings
are constrained by a very heavy reliance on oil, as well as domestic political
risk and regional geopolitical tensions. Our base-case scenario assumes that, despite the sharp fall in the oil price,
OPEC will chose to broadly maintain its current oil production levels to
undermine shale-oil production. Consequently, Kuwaiti oil output will remain
at at least 2.7 million barrels per day until 2018. Kuwait’s production is
also likely to increase if OPEC choses to increase production, and if Kuwait’s
planned investment in the sector comes to fruition.
Ukratko, zemlje OPECA mogu održati nisku cijenu nafte zato što im ulaganja u inostranstvu i novac koji su uložili u suverene fondove omogućava da se održe iznad vode dok ostali tonu još dugi dugi niz godina, posebno ukoliko dolar nastavi jačati
Lista fondova
Medju prvih 10 mjesta u fondovima su zemlje zaljeva
Vrijednost u milijardama dolara
Norway Norway GPF Government Pension Fund - Global 855.4
United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates
Abu Dhabi (emirate) Abu Dhabi ADIA Abu Dhabi Investment Authority 773
China China CIC China Investment Corporation 746.7
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia SAMA SAMA Foreign Holdings 668.6
Kuwait Kuwait KIA Kuwait Investment Authority 592
China China SAFE SAFE Investment Company 547**
Hong Kong Hong Kong HKMA 417.9
Singapore Singapore GIC Government of Singapore Investment Corporation 344
Qatar Qatar QIA Qatar Investment Authority 256
China China NSSF National Social Security Fund 236
Singapore Singapore TH Temasek Holdings 193.6
United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates
Dubai Dubai ICD Investment Corporation of Dubai 183
United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates
Abu Dhabi (emirate) Abu Dhabi ADIC Abu Dhabi Investment Council 110
Dva su trenutno najveća gubitnika niske cijene nafte: Rusija i prestanak produkcije skupe nafte u Americi